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Tropical Storm Vicky Forecast Discussion Number 2
2020-09-14 16:40:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM CVT Mon Sep 14 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 141440 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Vicky Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212020 200 PM CVT Mon Sep 14 2020 A METOP A/B ASCAT scatterometer pass over the cyclone showed a large swath of winds in the northeast quadrant on the order of 35 to 39 kt. Deep convection in that region of the cyclone continues to increase as well as near the center of circulation. Accordingly, the initial intensity is raised to 40 kt, making this the twentieth named storm of the season. This should be a short-lived tropical cyclone, however, as increasing southwesterly shear is expected to quickly weaken Vicky to a depression in a couple days, and the system is expected to degenerate to a remnant low Thursday. This scenario is based on a combination of the global models and the ECMWF and FV3 SHIPS statistical-dynamical intensity models. The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 325/05 kt. The cyclone is forecast to move northwestward with some increase in forward speed during the next 24 hours within the low to mid-level steering flow produced by the eastern end of the African monsoon trough. By Tuesday night, Vicky should turn west-northwestward to westward along the southern periphery of a subtropical ridge over the eastern Atlantic. The official track forecast is close to the various consensus aids and is just to the north of the previous advisory beyond 36 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 18.7N 28.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 15/0000Z 19.6N 29.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 15/1200Z 20.6N 30.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 16/0000Z 21.6N 32.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 16/1200Z 22.2N 34.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 17/0000Z 22.7N 36.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 17/1200Z 23.0N 39.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 18/1200Z 23.1N 42.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Summary for Tropical Storm Vicky (AT1/AL212020)
2020-09-14 16:40:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DEPRESSION BECOMES THE TWENTIETH NAMED STORM OF THE 2020 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON... ...VICKY IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-LIVED... As of 2:00 PM CVT Mon Sep 14 the center of Vicky was located near 18.7, -28.5 with movement NW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Karina Graphics
2020-09-14 16:38:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 14 Sep 2020 14:38:43 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 14 Sep 2020 16:00:00 GMT
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Tropical Storm Karina Forecast Discussion Number 7
2020-09-14 16:37:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Mon Sep 14 2020 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 141437 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Karina Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162020 800 AM PDT Mon Sep 14 2020 There has been little change to the appearance of Karina over the past several hours, with a large area of deep convection remaining displaced mostly to the southwest of the center due to moderate northeasterly shear. Because the general appearance of the cyclone is unchanged, the initial intensity remains 40 kt based on earlier ASCAT data. The shear is expected to slowly relax over the next 24 h while the system remains over relatively warm waters, and some slight strengthening is possible during that time. After 24 h, Karina is forecast to cross the 26 degrees C SST isotherm and begin to enter a drier, more stable atmospheric environment. These factors should cause Karina to steadily weaken beginning by late Tuesday. By 72 h, the cyclone should be over water temperatures of less than 24C, and the system is expected to degenerate to a remnant low by 96 h, if not sooner. The low is then forecast to dissipate by day 5. The NHC intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous one, and is in good agreement with the various multi-model consensus aids. Karina has resumed a northwestward movement, and the initial motion is 305/7 kt. A northwestward motion is expected to continue while the deep convection persists, as the cyclone is steered by a mid-level ridge to its north and northeast. Once the cyclone has weakened and lost most of its convection, it is expected to turn toward the west under the influence of the low-level flow. The track guidance has shifted northward at most time frames, and the latest NHC track forecast has been adjusted to the right as well, but is still to the south of most of the track guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 18.1N 118.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 15/0000Z 18.8N 119.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 15/1200Z 20.0N 120.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 16/0000Z 21.2N 122.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 16/1200Z 22.3N 123.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 17/0000Z 23.2N 125.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 17/1200Z 23.7N 126.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 18/1200Z 23.7N 127.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Karina Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2020-09-14 16:37:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 14 2020 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 141437 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM KARINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162020 1500 UTC MON SEP 14 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 118.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 120W 34 2 50(52) 1(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) 20N 120W 50 X 10(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) 20N 120W 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 20N 125W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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