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Tropical Storm Sally Public Advisory Number 10A
2020-09-14 07:35:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 100 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 140535 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Sally Intermediate Advisory Number 10A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020 100 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020 ...SALLY FORECAST TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, AND HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST STARTING LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.1N 86.9W ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM S OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Port Fourchon Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida Border * Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Borgne * Mobile Bay A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Morgan City Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama Border * Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas including metropolitan New Orleans A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Mississippi/Alabama Border to Indian Pass Florida * Intracoastal City Louisiana to west of Morgan City A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Mississippi/Alabama Border to the Alabama/Florida Border A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Indian Pass to Ochlockonee River Florida A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sally was located near latitude 28.1 North, longitude 86.9 West. Sally is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A slower west- northwestward motion is expected soon, followed by a further decrease in forward speed and a turn to the northwest tonight and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Sally will move over the north-central Gulf of Mexico today, and approach the northern Gulf Coast within the hurricane warning area tonight and on Tuesday. Sally is expected to move slowly northward near the northern Gulf Coast through Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected over the next day or so, and Sally is forecast to become a hurricane by tonight, with additional strengthening possible before the center crosses the northern Gulf Coast. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters is 996 mb (29.42 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Sally can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs including Lake Borgne...7-11 ft Ocean Springs to MS/AL Border...4-7 ft Port Fourchon to Mouth of the Mississippi River...4-6 ft Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...4-6 ft MS/AL Border to AL/FL Border including Mobile Bay...3-5 ft Burns Point to Port Fourchon...1-3 ft AL/FL Border to Chassahowitzka including Pensacola Bay, Choctawhatchee Bay, and Saint Andrew Bay...1-3 ft Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation values may be higher than those shown above. The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area starting late today. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area during the next few hours, and are expected within the warning area beginning this morning. RAINFALL: Sally is expected to be a slow moving system resulting in significant flash flooding for the central Gulf Coast today into Wednesday. Sally is expected to produce rainfall of 8 to 16 inches with isolated amounts of 24 inches over portions of the central Gulf Coast from the western Florida Panhandle to southeast Louisiana through the middle of the week. This rainfall will likely result in new widespread minor to isolated major flooding on area rivers. Sally is forecast to turn inland early Wednesday and track into the Southeast with rainfall of 5 to 10 inches possible across much of inland Mississippi and Alabama. Flash and urban flooding is possible, as well as widespread minor to moderate flooding on some rivers in Mississippi and Alabama. Further heavy rain is then anticipated across portions of Tennessee, northern Georgia and western North Carolina. Flash, urban, and minor river flooding is possible across this region. Outer bands of Sally are expected to produce additional rainfall of 1 to 3 inches across central and northern Florida through today. This rainfall may produce flash and urban flooding and prolong high flows and ongoing minor flooding on rivers across central Florida. TORNADOES: The risk of isolated tornadoes will begin to increase this afternoon and continue through Tuesday over parts of the western Florida Panhandle, southern Alabama, southern Mississippi, and southeast Louisiana. SURF: Swells from Sally are affecting the west coast of the Florida peninsula, the coast of the Florida Panhandle, and will be spreading northwestward along the northern Gulf coast through today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm Sally Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map
2020-09-14 06:23:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Mon, 14 Sep 2020 04:23:15 GMT
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Tropical Storm Sally Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics
2020-09-14 06:00:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Mon, 14 Sep 2020 04:00:02 GMT
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Tropical Storm Sally Graphics
2020-09-14 04:56:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 14 Sep 2020 02:56:44 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 14 Sep 2020 03:39:05 GMT
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Tropical Storm Sally Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2020-09-14 04:54:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 14 2020 631 FONT14 KNHC 140254 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM SALLY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192020 0300 UTC MON SEP 14 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SALLY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) WAYCROSS GA 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) THE VILLAGES 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) VENICE FL 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) TAMPA FL 34 4 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) CEDAR KEY FL 34 4 4( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) 1(11) 1(12) X(12) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 2 4( 6) 2( 8) 3(11) 3(14) 1(15) X(15) ST MARKS FL 34 2 4( 6) 2( 8) 2(10) 3(13) 1(14) X(14) APALACHICOLA 34 21 8(29) 4(33) 3(36) 3(39) 1(40) X(40) APALACHICOLA 50 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) GFMX 290N 850W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GFMX 290N 850W 50 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) PANAMA CITY FL 34 32 11(43) 5(48) 4(52) 2(54) 1(55) X(55) PANAMA CITY FL 50 1 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 8 13(21) 8(29) 10(39) 5(44) 2(46) X(46) DESTIN EXEC AP 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) DESTIN EXEC AP 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) COLUMBUS GA 34 1 3( 4) 3( 7) 3(10) 4(14) 3(17) X(17) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 7(13) 7(20) 2(22) X(22) MONTGOMERY AL 34 1 5( 6) 4(10) 10(20) 7(27) 4(31) X(31) MONTGOMERY AL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) WHITING FLD FL 34 4 17(21) 11(32) 14(46) 6(52) 2(54) X(54) WHITING FLD FL 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 3(10) 1(11) X(11) WHITING FLD FL 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) PENSACOLA FL 34 6 25(31) 12(43) 12(55) 4(59) 1(60) X(60) PENSACOLA FL 50 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 4(10) 3(13) 1(14) X(14) PENSACOLA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 290N 870W 34 95 3(98) 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GFMX 290N 870W 50 52 17(69) 2(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) GFMX 290N 870W 64 6 9(15) 2(17) 1(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) MOBILE AL 34 3 25(28) 26(54) 17(71) 5(76) X(76) X(76) MOBILE AL 50 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 17(26) 5(31) 1(32) X(32) MOBILE AL 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 3(11) 1(12) X(12) GULFPORT MS 34 2 29(31) 32(63) 16(79) 5(84) X(84) X(84) GULFPORT MS 50 X 3( 3) 20(23) 22(45) 5(50) X(50) X(50) GULFPORT MS 64 X X( X) 4( 4) 13(17) 4(21) X(21) X(21) STENNIS MS 34 2 21(23) 34(57) 19(76) 7(83) X(83) X(83) STENNIS MS 50 X 2( 2) 21(23) 24(47) 6(53) X(53) X(53) STENNIS MS 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) 3(21) 1(22) X(22) BURAS LA 34 2 34(36) 35(71) 11(82) 3(85) X(85) X(85) BURAS LA 50 X 9( 9) 25(34) 14(48) 5(53) X(53) X(53) BURAS LA 64 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 10(17) 2(19) X(19) X(19) GFMX 280N 890W 34 11 43(54) 15(69) 5(74) 1(75) X(75) X(75) GFMX 280N 890W 50 1 18(19) 11(30) 5(35) 2(37) X(37) X(37) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X 3( 3) 5( 8) 3(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) JACKSON MS 34 X 5( 5) 6(11) 25(36) 9(45) 1(46) X(46) JACKSON MS 50 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 4(12) X(12) X(12) JACKSON MS 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 2 12(14) 29(43) 21(64) 8(72) 1(73) X(73) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X 1( 1) 12(13) 20(33) 6(39) X(39) X(39) NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14) GFMX 280N 910W 34 3 9(12) 14(26) 6(32) 6(38) X(38) X(38) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 4(10) X(10) X(10) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) BATON ROUGE LA 34 1 5( 6) 12(18) 21(39) 9(48) 1(49) X(49) BATON ROUGE LA 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 3(13) X(13) X(13) BATON ROUGE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MORGAN CITY LA 34 1 6( 7) 13(20) 17(37) 9(46) X(46) X(46) MORGAN CITY LA 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 3(12) 1(13) X(13) MORGAN CITY LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X 3( 3) 4( 7) 9(16) 4(20) X(20) X(20) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X 5( 5) 6(11) 12(23) 5(28) 1(29) X(29) LAFAYETTE LA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X 5( 5) 7(12) 12(24) 7(31) X(31) X(31) NEW IBERIA LA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) NEW IBERIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GFMX 280N 930W 34 1 5( 6) 3( 9) 3(12) 3(15) X(15) X(15) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) FORT POLK LA 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 5(10) 3(13) X(13) X(13) LAKE CHARLES 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 4(10) 3(13) 1(14) X(14) CAMERON LA 34 X 6( 6) 4(10) 4(14) 4(18) X(18) X(18) JASPER TX 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) KOUNTZE TX 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PENSACOLA NAS 34 32 34(66) 9(75) 5(80) 2(82) X(82) X(82) PENSACOLA NAS 50 1 8( 9) 7(16) 5(21) 3(24) 1(25) X(25) PENSACOLA NAS 64 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) KEESLER AB 34 9 46(55) 22(77) 11(88) 2(90) 1(91) X(91) KEESLER AB 50 1 9(10) 25(35) 17(52) 4(56) 1(57) X(57) KEESLER AB 64 X 1( 1) 11(12) 15(27) 3(30) 1(31) X(31) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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