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Tropical Storm Sally Forecast Discussion Number 11
2020-09-14 11:55:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 140954 CCA TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Sally Discussion Number 11...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020 400 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020 Corrected 4th Key Message The organization of Sally hasn't changed much during the past several hours. While there was a large burst of convection earlier, it did not translate into any intensification, with flight-level reconnaissance and SFMR surface winds still supporting an initial wind speed of 50 kt. The Air Force Reserve plane did find that the size of tropical-storm-force wind field has notable grown to the north and northwest of the center. The storm still has time to intensify under a seemingly conducive environment during the next 24-36 hours, before a combination of increasing westerly wind shear and land interaction will probably slow the intensification rate. Model guidance has come down slightly from 6 hours ago, but it has been inconsistent from cycle to cycle. The new intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and lies near the top end of the guidance envelope. The reconnaissance plane showed that Sally took a westward turn during the past several hours, but the storm appears to have a resumed a more west-northwestward motion recently. Weak ridging over the southern United States is expected to cause this general motion with a decrease in forward speed today before the storm slowly turns northward sometime on Tuesday due to an approaching trough. Guidance is not in good agreement on exactly when that turn occurs, causing a good deal of spread for a relatively short-range forecast. The track forecast has been shifted to the left in the short-term primarily due to the initial position, showing a track near or over extreme southeastern Louisiana, then is the near the previous one at its final landfall. The bottom line continues to be that Sally is expected to be a dangerous slow-moving hurricane near the coast of southeastern Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama during the next 2-3 days. KEY MESSAGES: 1. It is too early to determine where Sally's center will move onshore given the uncertainty in the timing and location of Sally's northward turn near the central Gulf Coast. Users should not focus on the details of the official forecast track, since NHC's average forecast error at 48 hours is around 80 miles, and dangerous storm surge, rainfall, and wind hazards will extend well away from the center. 2. An extremely dangerous and life-threatening storm surge is expected for areas outside the southeastern Louisiana Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System from Port Fourchon, Louisiana, to the Alabama/Florida border, where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials. 3. Hurricane conditions are expected by late today within portions of the Hurricane Warning area from Morgan City, Louisiana, to the Mississippi/Alabama border, including Metropolitan New Orleans, with tropical storm conditions likely to begin by late this morning. Preparations should be rushed to completion in those areas. 4. Sally may continue to produce flash flooding across the Florida peninsula and prolong existing minor river flooding across west-central Florida through today. Life-threatening flash flooding is possible and widespread minor to isolated major flooding on area rivers is likely along and just inland of the Central Gulf Coast. Significant flash and urban flooding, as well as widespread minor to moderate river flooding is likely across Mississippi and Alabama through the middle of the week. Flooding impacts are expected to spread farther across the Southeast through the week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0900Z 28.3N 87.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 14/1800Z 28.6N 88.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 15/0600Z 29.1N 88.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 15/1800Z 29.7N 89.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 16/0600Z 30.6N 89.2W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 60H 16/1800Z 31.6N 88.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 17/0600Z 32.5N 87.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 96H 18/0600Z 33.5N 85.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm Teddy Graphics
2020-09-14 11:19:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 14 Sep 2020 09:19:02 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 14 Sep 2020 09:19:02 GMT
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Tropical Storm Teddy Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2020-09-14 11:17:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 14 2020 000 FONT15 KNHC 140917 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM TEDDY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020 0900 UTC MON SEP 14 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TEDDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 40.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Summary for Tropical Storm Teddy (AT5/AL202020)
2020-09-14 11:17:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM TEDDY... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A POWERFUL HURRICANE LATER THIS WEEK... As of 5:00 AM AST Mon Sep 14 the center of Teddy was located near 13.4, -40.4 with movement WNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Teddy Public Advisory Number 7
2020-09-14 11:17:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Mon Sep 14 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 140917 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Teddy Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 500 AM AST Mon Sep 14 2020 ...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM TEDDY... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A POWERFUL HURRICANE LATER THIS WEEK... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.4N 40.4W ABOUT 1110 MI...1785 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS ABOUT 1405 MI...2260 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Teddy was located near latitude 13.4 North, longitude 40.4 West. Teddy is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A continued west-northwestward motion is expected for the next day or two followed by a turn toward the northwest by mid-week. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is anticipated, and Teddy is forecast to become a hurricane in a couple of days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Large swells generated by Tropical Storm Teddy are expected to reach the Lesser Antilles and the northeastern coast of South America on Wednesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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