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Tropical Storm Teddy Forecast Advisory Number 7
2020-09-14 11:17:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 14 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 140917 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM TEDDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020 0900 UTC MON SEP 14 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 40.4W AT 14/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 40SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 210SE 0SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 40.4W AT 14/0900Z AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 39.8W FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 13.8N 42.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 14.3N 44.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 15.0N 46.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 50SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 15.9N 48.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 100SE 60SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 16.9N 49.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 70SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 18.3N 50.8W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 80SW 140NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 21.0N 53.1W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 23.9N 55.6W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.4N 40.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm Sally Graphics
2020-09-14 10:59:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 14 Sep 2020 08:59:39 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 14 Sep 2020 09:39:29 GMT
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Tropical Storm Sally Forecast Discussion Number 11
2020-09-14 10:55:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 140855 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Sally Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020 400 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020 The organization of Sally hasn't changed much during the past several hours. While there was a large burst of convection earlier, it did not translate into any intensification, with flight-level reconnaissance and SFMR surface winds still supporting an initial wind speed of 50 kt. The Air Force Reserve plane did find that the size of tropical-storm-force wind field has notable grown to the north and northwest of the center. The storm still has time to intensify under a seemingly conducive environment during the next 24-36 hours, before a combination of increasing westerly wind shear and land interaction will probably slow the intensification rate. Model guidance has come down slightly from 6 hours ago, but it has been inconsistent from cycle to cycle. The new intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and lies near the top end of the guidance envelope. The reconnaissance plane showed that Sally took a westward turn during the past several hours, but the storm appears to have a resumed a more west-northwestward motion recently. Weak ridging over the southern United States is expected to cause this general motion with a decrease in forward speed today before the storm slowly turns northward sometime on Tuesday due to an approaching trough. Guidance is not in good agreement on exactly when that turn occurs, causing a good deal of spread for a relatively short-range forecast. The track forecast has been shifted to the left in the short-term primarily due to the initial position, showing a track near or over extreme southeastern Louisiana, then is the near the previous one at its final landfall. The bottom line continues to be that Sally is expected to be a dangerous slow-moving hurricane near the coast of southeastern Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama during the next 2-3 days. KEY MESSAGES: 1. It is too early to determine where Sally's center will move onshore given the uncertainty in the timing and location of Sally's northward turn near the central Gulf Coast. Users should not focus on the details of the official forecast track, since NHC's average forecast error at 48 hours is around 80 miles, and dangerous storm surge, rainfall, and wind hazards will extend well away from the center. 2. An extremely dangerous and life-threatening storm surge is expected for areas outside the southeastern Louisiana Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System from Port Fourchon, Louisiana, to the Alabama/Florida border, where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials. 3. Hurricane conditions are expected by late today within portions of the Hurricane Warning area from Morgan City, Louisiana, to the Mississippi/Alabama border, including Metropolitan New Orleans, with tropical storm conditions likely to begin by late this morning. Preparations should be rushed to completion in those areas. 4. Sally could continue to produce flash flooding across central and northern Florida and prolong existing minor river flooding across west-central Florida through today. Widespread significant flash flooding and minor to isolated major river flooding is likely across southeastern Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama through the middle of the week. Flooding impacts are expected to spread farther across the Southeast U.S. through the week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0900Z 28.3N 87.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 14/1800Z 28.6N 88.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 15/0600Z 29.1N 88.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 15/1800Z 29.7N 89.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 16/0600Z 30.6N 89.2W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 60H 16/1800Z 31.6N 88.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 17/0600Z 32.5N 87.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 96H 18/0600Z 33.5N 85.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm Sally Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
2020-09-14 10:55:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Mon, 14 Sep 2020 08:55:42 GMT
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Tropical Storm Sally Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2020-09-14 10:53:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 14 2020 000 FONT14 KNHC 140853 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM SALLY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192020 0900 UTC MON SEP 14 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SALLY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) VENICE FL 34 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) TAMPA FL 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) CEDAR KEY FL 34 4 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 1 4( 5) 3( 8) 3(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) ST MARKS FL 34 1 4( 5) 3( 8) 2(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) APALACHICOLA 34 13 9(22) 3(25) 5(30) 2(32) X(32) X(32) GFMX 290N 850W 34 16 8(24) 3(27) 3(30) 2(32) X(32) X(32) PANAMA CITY FL 34 22 11(33) 5(38) 5(43) 1(44) 1(45) X(45) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 9 9(18) 9(27) 10(37) 3(40) 1(41) X(41) DESTIN EXEC AP 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) COLUMBUS GA 34 1 3( 4) 2( 6) 4(10) 2(12) 2(14) X(14) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 8(14) 4(18) 1(19) X(19) MONTGOMERY AL 34 1 5( 6) 4(10) 10(20) 4(24) 2(26) X(26) WHITING FLD FL 34 9 14(23) 12(35) 12(47) 4(51) 1(52) X(52) WHITING FLD FL 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) WHITING FLD FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) PENSACOLA FL 34 16 18(34) 11(45) 11(56) 3(59) X(59) X(59) PENSACOLA FL 50 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 5( 9) 2(11) 1(12) X(12) PENSACOLA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 290N 870W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GFMX 290N 870W 50 46 3(49) 1(50) 1(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) GFMX 290N 870W 64 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MOBILE AL 34 13 32(45) 17(62) 12(74) 3(77) X(77) X(77) MOBILE AL 50 X 4( 4) 10(14) 14(28) 4(32) X(32) X(32) MOBILE AL 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) GULFPORT MS 34 18 44(62) 16(78) 7(85) 2(87) X(87) X(87) GULFPORT MS 50 X 13(13) 19(32) 12(44) 3(47) X(47) X(47) GULFPORT MS 64 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 7(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) STENNIS MS 34 12 45(57) 20(77) 8(85) 2(87) X(87) X(87) STENNIS MS 50 X 10(10) 21(31) 13(44) 2(46) X(46) X(46) STENNIS MS 64 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 6(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) BURAS LA 34 38 44(82) 7(89) 2(91) 1(92) X(92) X(92) BURAS LA 50 1 31(32) 16(48) 5(53) 1(54) 1(55) X(55) BURAS LA 64 X 4( 4) 7(11) 4(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) GFMX 280N 890W 34 55 24(79) 4(83) 1(84) 1(85) X(85) X(85) GFMX 280N 890W 50 13 21(34) 6(40) 2(42) 1(43) X(43) X(43) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X 7( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) JACKSON MS 34 1 6( 7) 7(14) 18(32) 3(35) X(35) X(35) JACKSON MS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 6 40(46) 20(66) 7(73) 2(75) 1(76) X(76) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X 6( 6) 14(20) 9(29) 2(31) X(31) X(31) NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) GFMX 280N 910W 34 7 16(23) 8(31) 4(35) 2(37) X(37) X(37) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) BATON ROUGE LA 34 2 12(14) 14(28) 11(39) 4(43) X(43) X(43) BATON ROUGE LA 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) BATON ROUGE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MORGAN CITY LA 34 3 13(16) 14(30) 9(39) 3(42) X(42) X(42) MORGAN CITY LA 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MORGAN CITY LA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 1 4( 5) 4( 9) 5(14) 2(16) X(16) X(16) LAFAYETTE LA 34 1 6( 7) 7(14) 6(20) 3(23) X(23) X(23) LAFAYETTE LA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NEW IBERIA LA 34 2 6( 8) 8(16) 7(23) 3(26) X(26) X(26) NEW IBERIA LA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 930W 34 3 6( 9) 3(12) 2(14) 2(16) X(16) X(16) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) FORT POLK LA 34 X 4( 4) 3( 7) 3(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) LAKE CHARLES 34 X 4( 4) 4( 8) 2(10) 1(11) 1(12) X(12) CAMERON LA 34 2 7( 9) 4(13) 3(16) 2(18) X(18) X(18) JASPER TX 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) KOUNTZE TX 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GALVESTON TX 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) PENSACOLA NAS 34 53 18(71) 5(76) 4(80) 1(81) X(81) X(81) PENSACOLA NAS 50 2 6( 8) 6(14) 4(18) 3(21) X(21) X(21) PENSACOLA NAS 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) KEESLER AB 34 47 31(78) 9(87) 4(91) 1(92) X(92) X(92) KEESLER AB 50 1 22(23) 21(44) 10(54) 3(57) X(57) X(57) KEESLER AB 64 X 4( 4) 11(15) 7(22) 3(25) X(25) X(25) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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