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Tropical Storm Paulette Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4

2020-09-07 22:30:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 07 2020 362 FONT12 KNHC 072030 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020 2100 UTC MON SEP 07 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 42.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

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Summary for Tropical Storm Paulette (AT2/AL172020)

2020-09-07 22:30:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...PAULETTE DRIFTING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... As of 5:00 PM AST Mon Sep 7 the center of Paulette was located near 17.5, -42.4 with movement NW at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

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Tropical Storm Paulette Public Advisory Number 4

2020-09-07 22:30:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST Mon Sep 07 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 072030 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Paulette Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 500 PM AST Mon Sep 07 2020 ...PAULETTE DRIFTING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.5N 42.4W ABOUT 1220 MI...1965 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS ABOUT 1360 MI...2190 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Paulette was located near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 42.4 West. Paulette is moving toward the northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h). A slow motion toward the northwest or north-northwest is expected tonight. Paulette is then forecast to move a little faster and generally westward on Tuesday and Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Modest strengthening is expected during the next couple of days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

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Tropical Storm Paulette Forecast Advisory Number 4

2020-09-07 22:30:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 07 2020 849 WTNT22 KNHC 072030 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020 2100 UTC MON SEP 07 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 42.4W AT 07/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 0SE 0SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 42.4W AT 07/2100Z AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 42.3W FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 17.9N 42.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 18.8N 43.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 60SE 0SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 19.6N 45.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...140NE 70SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 20.3N 46.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...150NE 70SE 50SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 20.8N 48.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...150NE 70SE 50SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 21.1N 50.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...150NE 100SE 50SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 21.8N 53.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 24.0N 56.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 42.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

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Tropical Storm Paulette Graphics

2020-09-07 16:41:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 07 Sep 2020 14:41:08 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 07 Sep 2020 15:24:40 GMT

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