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Tropical Storm Paulette Forecast Discussion Number 5
2020-09-08 04:32:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 07 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 080232 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Paulette Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 07 2020 Satellite images show that Paulette continues to become better organized, with a more symmetric presentation and very deep convection near or just north of the center. The initial wind speed is increased to 40 kt, a little higher than recent subjective Dvorak estimates, but close to the objective estimates and the UW-CIMSS satellite consensus. Further strengthening is expected during the next day or so while the storm remains in a warm SST and low-to-moderate shear environment. By midweek, some weakening is forecast due to an increase in shear from an enhanced mid-oceanic upper-level trough. There's a fair amount of uncertainty on how quickly the tropical cyclone moves across the trough axis, which would then allow Paulette to find an area of lighter shear, plus very warm water, by the end of the forecast period. The intensity forecast is slightly higher in the short-term, and lower in the day-4 period just before the environment is forecast to improve. Paulette appears to be moving slowly north-northwestward this evening. A mid-level ridge is likely to build over the western and central North Atlantic in a day or two, and this pattern should cause Paulette to move faster toward the northwest tomorrow, and west-northwestward or westward through late week. A turn back toward the west-northwest or northwest is possible over the weekend as the cyclone reaches the western periphery of the ridge. This is not a particularly certain forecast because the track models aren't in good agreement, perhaps linked to the strength of Paulette, and there is significant spread in the various ensemble guidance. With no clear trends to rely on, and since the new model consensus came in very close to the previous NHC forecast, the new NHC track prediction is basically unchanged from the previous one. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0300Z 17.8N 42.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 08/1200Z 18.4N 42.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 09/0000Z 19.2N 44.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 09/1200Z 19.9N 45.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 10/0000Z 20.5N 47.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 10/1200Z 20.9N 49.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 11/0000Z 21.3N 51.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 12/0000Z 22.5N 55.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 13/0000Z 25.0N 58.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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Summary for Tropical Storm Rene (AT3/AL182020)
2020-09-08 04:32:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...RENE MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CABO VERDE ISLANDS... ...EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS TODAY... As of 2:00 AM CVT Tue Sep 8 the center of Rene was located near 16.2, -23.5 with movement W at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Rene Forecast Discussion Number 4
2020-09-08 04:32:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 AM CVT Tue Sep 08 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 080231 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Rene Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020 200 AM CVT Tue Sep 08 2020 Convection has noticeably waned during the past few hours as Rene's center moved directly over Boa Vista island between 07/2200 UTC and 08/0000 UTC. The highest observed wind speed thus far has been a 10-minute average wind of 25 kt at Sal/GVAC. Satellite intensity estimates range from 35 kt from TAFB to 30 kt from SAB. A 07/2323 UTC ASCAT-B overpass indicated peak winds of 27 kt, but land obscuration likely has resulted in some missed higher wind speeds. For now, the intensity will remain at 35 kt. The initial motion is 280/12 kt. A westward motion is expected today, followed by a west-northwestward motion through Thursday as Rene rounds the southwestern periphery of a deep-layer subtropical ridge. On days 4 ad 5, the cyclone is forecast to move more slowly northwestward to north-northwestward through a weakness in the aforementioned ridge. The track guidance appears to have stabilized on the latest set of model runs and, thus, the new NHC forecast track is very similar to the previous advisory track, and lies close to a blend of the TVCA and NOAA-HCCA consensus track models. The intensity forecast was held steady for the next 12 h or so until Rene clears the negative influence of the mountainous Cabo Verde Islands. It's possible that Rene could even weaken by the time it passes the western Cabo Verde Islands. Thereafter, however, environmental conditions appear conducive for the cyclone to gradually strengthen, becoming a hurricane on day 3. By days 4 and 5, an increase in southwesterly vertical wind shear is expected to induce a weakening trend. The new NHC intensity forecast is similar to a blend of the IVCN and the HCCA intensity consensus models, and the GFS model. Key Messages: 1. Rene is expected to produce tropical storm conditions across portions of the Cabo Verde Islands this morning and afternoon. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for those islands. 2. Rene will bring locally heavy rainfall to portions of the Cabo Verde Islands through this afternoon. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0300Z 16.2N 23.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 08/1200Z 16.5N 25.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 09/0000Z 16.8N 28.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 09/1200Z 17.3N 30.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 10/0000Z 18.2N 33.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 10/1200Z 19.1N 36.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 11/0000Z 20.2N 38.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 12/0000Z 23.1N 41.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 13/0000Z 27.6N 44.1W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Summary for Tropical Storm Paulette (AT2/AL172020)
2020-09-08 04:31:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...A SLIGHTLY STRONGER PAULETTE DRIFTING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD... As of 11:00 PM AST Mon Sep 7 the center of Paulette was located near 17.8, -42.5 with movement NNW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Paulette Public Advisory Number 5
2020-09-08 04:31:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 07 2020 310 WTNT32 KNHC 080231 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Paulette Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 07 2020 ...A SLIGHTLY STRONGER PAULETTE DRIFTING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.8N 42.5W ABOUT 1230 MI...1975 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS ABOUT 1350 MI...2175 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Paulette was located near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 42.5 West. Paulette is moving toward the north-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). The storm is forecast to turn toward the northwest and move faster on Tuesday, and move west-northwestward or westward on Wednesday and Thursday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the day or two, with little change in strength expected afterward through Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake
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