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Tropical Storm Julio Graphics
2020-09-06 22:37:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 06 Sep 2020 20:37:55 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 06 Sep 2020 20:37:55 GMT
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Tropical Storm Julio Forecast Discussion Number 5
2020-09-06 22:35:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Sun Sep 06 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 062034 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Julio Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152020 300 PM MDT Sun Sep 06 2020 Julio remains a compact tropical storm that is producing a small area of deep convection near and to the west of the center. A recent ASCAT-A overpass showed maximum winds around 30 kt, which was lower than in previous passes. Based on that data and the latest Dvorak classifications, the initial intensity is lowered to 35 kt. The ASCAT data also suggest that the circulation of Julio is not as well defined on the south side as it was earlier. As mentioned in the previous discussion, Julio's future is somewhat unclear. The ECMWF and UKMET models show Julio becoming absorbed by a larger low just to its southwest in a couple of days. Conversely, the GFS, HWRF, and HMON models show Julio being the dominant feature, with the latter two aids even showing strengthening. Since confidence is low on which scenario will play out, it seems best to hold continuity for now, which ends up leaning closer to the ECMWF/UKMET solutions. The NHC intensity forecast is a little lower than the previous one given the lower initial intensity. The tropical storm is moving west-northwestward at about 17 kt. Julio should continue to move westward to west-northwestward at a fairly quick pace for another 12-24 hours. However, after that time, a notable slow down should occur as the ridge over the eastern Pacific breaks down and leaves the cyclone in weak steering currents. The new NHC track forecast is adjusted to the south of the previous one to come into better agreement with the latest models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/2100Z 19.3N 110.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 07/0600Z 19.6N 112.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 07/1800Z 19.7N 114.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 08/0600Z 19.6N 115.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 08/1800Z 19.4N 116.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 09/0600Z 19.2N 116.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Julio Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2020-09-06 22:33:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 06 2020 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 062033 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM JULIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152020 2100 UTC SUN SEP 06 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JULIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA SOCORRO 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA CLARION 34 X 3( 3) 8(11) 2(13) 2(15) X(15) X(15) 20N 115W 34 X 13(13) 28(41) 2(43) 2(45) X(45) X(45) 20N 115W 50 X 2( 2) 8(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Summary for Tropical Storm Julio (EP5/EP152020)
2020-09-06 22:33:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...COMPACT JULIO MOVING AWAY FROM MEXICO... As of 3:00 PM MDT Sun Sep 6 the center of Julio was located near 19.3, -110.0 with movement WNW at 20 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Julio Public Advisory Number 5
2020-09-06 22:33:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Sun Sep 06 2020 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 062032 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Julio Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152020 300 PM MDT Sun Sep 06 2020 ...COMPACT JULIO MOVING AWAY FROM MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.3N 110.0W ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Julio was located near latitude 19.3 North, longitude 110.0 West. Julio is moving toward the west-northwest near 20 mph (31 km/h). A fairly quick westward to west-northwestward motion is expected through early Monday. A much slower westward motion is forecast after that. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected during the next couple of days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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