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Tropical Storm Julio Public Advisory Number 4
2020-09-06 16:32:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Sun Sep 06 2020 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 061431 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Julio Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152020 900 AM MDT Sun Sep 06 2020 ...JULIO ACCELERATES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AWAY FROM THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.2N 108.8W ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Julio was located near latitude 19.2 North, longitude 108.8 West. Julio is moving toward the west-northwest near 23 mph (37 km/h). A fast west-northwestward motion is expected today, followed by a turn toward the west at a slower forward speed on Monday and Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Only small fluctuations in intensity are expected during the next couple of days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Julio Forecast Advisory Number 4
2020-09-06 16:31:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 06 2020 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 061431 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM JULIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152020 1500 UTC SUN SEP 06 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 108.8W AT 06/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 20 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 108.8W AT 06/1500Z AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 107.8W FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 19.9N 111.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 20.3N 113.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 20.4N 115.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 20.2N 115.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 20.2N 116.8W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.2N 108.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Tropical Storm Julio Graphics
2020-09-06 10:34:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 06 Sep 2020 08:34:31 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 06 Sep 2020 09:24:31 GMT
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Tropical Storm Julio Forecast Discussion Number 3
2020-09-06 10:33:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Sun Sep 06 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 060833 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Julio Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152020 300 AM MDT Sun Sep 06 2020 Julio is a compact and well-defined tropical storm as indicated by recent satellite-derived wind data and microwave imagery, with the center located underneath the eastern portion of the deep convection. A recent ASCAT overpass showed maximum winds of 39 kt, and based on this data the initial intensity has been increased to 40 kt. Julio has accelerated and is now moving west-northwestward at 18 kt around the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge. This motion should continue for the next day or so, with a gradual decrease in forward speed. A turn to west is anticipated by Monday as the cyclone begins to weaken and becomes steered by the low-level flow. The latest forecast is similar to the previous one through 24 h, but was shifted southward thereafter in response to a southerly shift in the guidance. The intensity forecast for Julio is low confidence, as the global models have struggled to resolve the small size of the cyclone, resulting in a large spread in the intensity guidance. The SHIPS guidance suggests that the moderate easterly shear currently impacting Julio will decrease in 12-24 h, while the system is still over warm waters and in a moist atmospheric environment. Therefore, this guidance indicates that some slight strengthening is expected over the next couple of days. Despite the generally favorable conditions shown in the SHIPS guidance, the global models show no further intensification and weaken the cyclone almost immediately. Due to the resilience of Julio up until this point, the latest NHC intensity forecast leans towards the higher SHIPS guidance over the next day or so, then trends toward the lower global model forecasts later on in the forecast period. All of the global models suggest Julio will dissipate in a few days, and this is still being indicated in the NHC forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0900Z 17.6N 106.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 06/1800Z 18.6N 108.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 07/0600Z 19.5N 110.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 07/1800Z 19.9N 112.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 08/0600Z 20.1N 113.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 08/1800Z 20.2N 114.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 09/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto
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Summary for Tropical Storm Julio (EP5/EP152020)
2020-09-06 10:32:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...JULIO STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY AS IT BEGINS TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE COAST OF MEXICO... As of 3:00 AM MDT Sun Sep 6 the center of Julio was located near 17.6, -106.0 with movement WNW at 18 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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