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Tropical Storm Nana Forecast Discussion Number 7
2020-09-02 22:36:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Wed Sep 02 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 022036 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Nana Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162020 400 PM CDT Wed Sep 02 2020 Nana continues to feel the effects of about 15 kt of northerly vertical shear, as the low-level center is located near the northern edge of the main convective mass. Data from the last Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter Mission showed that the flight-level winds at 850 mb were a little lower than earlier. However, incomplete SFMR data suggested surface winds near 50 kt, and the aircraft reported that the central pressure is near 999 mb. The initial intensity is held at 50 kt, although this could be a little generous. The initial motion is westward or 270/13 kt. A low- to mid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone is forecast to keep steering Nana toward the west, or maybe just south of west, for the remainder of the cyclone's life. The new forecast track, which again is changed only slightly from the previous forecast, calls for the cyclone to pass north of the Bay Islands this evening, then make landfall over central or southern Belize in about 12-18 h. Nana is running out of time to strengthen before landfall, and between that and the ongoing shear none of the intensity guidance forecasts it to become a hurricane before landfall. However, any strong convective burst could spin up the cyclone, and since the bursts have been frequent today the intensity forecast calls for Nana to strengthen to near hurricane strength at landfall. After landfall, steady weakening is expected. Several of the global models now show the remnants of Nana emerging over the Gulf of Tehuantepec in 48-60 h. However, these models continue to forecast dissipation even over water, so the forecast dissipation time is unchanged since the previous advisory. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Nana could bring hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge tonight to portions of the coast of Belize, and a hurricane warning is in effect. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning areas in Belize, the Bay Islands, Guatemala, and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico by tonight. 3. Heavy rainfall with isolated maximum amounts as high as 8 to 12 inches could result in flash flooding in Belize, Guatemala, and portions of southeastern Mexico and the Yucatan Peninsula. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/2100Z 17.0N 85.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 03/0600Z 16.8N 87.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 03/1800Z 16.6N 90.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 36H 04/0600Z 16.4N 92.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 04/1800Z 16.2N 94.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Nana Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2020-09-02 22:35:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 02 2020 000 FONT11 KNHC 022035 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM NANA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162020 2100 UTC WED SEP 02 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NANA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT FRONTERA MX 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BELIZE CITY 34 73 7(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) BELIZE CITY 50 8 7(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) BELIZE CITY 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) PUERTO BARRIOS 34 1 10(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) GUANAJA 34 25 X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) GUANAJA 50 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Summary for Tropical Storm Nana (AT1/AL162020)
2020-09-02 22:35:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...NANA CONTINUING WESTWARD TOWARD THE COAST OF BELIZE... ...COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL... As of 4:00 PM CDT Wed Sep 2 the center of Nana was located near 17.0, -85.9 with movement W at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm Nana Public Advisory Number 7
2020-09-02 22:35:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Wed Sep 02 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 022035 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Nana Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162020 400 PM CDT Wed Sep 02 2020 ...NANA CONTINUING WESTWARD TOWARD THE COAST OF BELIZE... ...COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.0N 85.9W ABOUT 65 MI...110 KM NE OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM ESE OF BELIZE CITY MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Honduras has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for Isla Roatan and the Bay Islands. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * The coast of Belize from Belize City southward to the Belize-Guatemala border. A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * The coast of Belize north of Belize city to the Belize-Mexico border A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Yucatan Mexico from Puerto Costa Maya to Chetumal * The coast of Belize north of Belize city to the Belize-Mexico border * Caribbean Sea coast of Guatemala * Isla Roatan and the Bay Islands of Honduras A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Northern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca westward to the Guatemala border A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nana was located near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 85.9 West. Nana is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h), and a westward or west-southwestward motion is expected tonight and Thursday. On the forecast track, Nana will be moving near but north of the coast of Honduras and the Bay Islands this evening, and the center should make landfall on the coast of Belize tonight or early Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. While Nana has not strengthened during the past several hours, strengthening is expected before landfall, and Nana could become a hurricane by the time the center reaches the coast of Belize. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Hurricane Warning area in Belize tonight and early Thursday, with tropical storm conditions expected by tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area in Belize, Guatemala, and Mexico by tonight, with hurricane conditions possible in the Hurricane Watch area tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in Isla Roatan and the Bay Islands beginning this evening. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area in Honduras. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast near and to the north of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Nana is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Friday: Northern coast of Honduras: 1 to 3 inches Belize, Guatemala and the Mexican states of Chiapas and Tabasco: 3 to 6 inches, isolated totals of 8 inches The southeast portion of the Mexican state of Quintana Roo: 2 to 4 inches.. The eastern portions of the Mexican states of Veracruz and Oaxaca: 6 to 8 inches, isolated totals of 12 inches. These rainfall amounts may produce life threatening flash floods and mudslides SURF: Swells generated by Nana are affecting portions of the southern coast of Jamaica and the Cayman Islands, and will spread along the coasts of Honduras and Belize tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Nana Forecast Advisory Number 7
2020-09-02 22:35:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 02 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 022035 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM NANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162020 2100 UTC WED SEP 02 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ISLA ROATAN AND THE BAY ISLANDS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY SOUTHWARD TO THE BELIZE-GUATEMALA BORDER. A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF BELIZE NORTH OF BELIZE CITY TO THE BELIZE-MEXICO BORDER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * YUCATAN MEXICO FROM PUERTO COSTA MAYA TO CHETUMAL * THE COAST OF BELIZE NORTH OF BELIZE CITY TO THE BELIZE-MEXICO BORDER * CARIBBEAN SEA COAST OF GUATEMALA * ISLA ROATAN AND THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM PUNTA PATUCA WESTWARD TO THE GUATEMALA BORDER A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 85.9W AT 02/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 30SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 30SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 85.9W AT 02/2100Z AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 85.2W FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 16.8N 87.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 20SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 16.6N 90.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 16.4N 92.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 16.2N 94.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 85.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 03/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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