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Tropical Storm Omar Graphics
2020-09-01 22:49:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 01 Sep 2020 20:49:45 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 01 Sep 2020 21:25:09 GMT
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Tropical Storm Nana Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2020-09-01 22:49:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 01 2020 000 FONT11 KNHC 012049 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM NANA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162020 2100 UTC TUE SEP 01 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NANA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT FRONTERA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) COZUMEL MX 34 X 5( 5) 7(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) BELIZE CITY 34 X 3( 3) 50(53) 16(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) BELIZE CITY 50 X X( X) 14(14) 14(28) 1(29) X(29) X(29) BELIZE CITY 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) GUANAJA 34 X 13(13) 30(43) 1(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) GUANAJA 50 X 1( 1) 12(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) GUANAJA 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ISLE OF PINES 34 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GRAND CAYMAN 34 10 4(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Tropical Storm Nana Forecast Advisory Number 3
2020-09-01 22:48:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 01 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 012048 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM NANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162020 2100 UTC TUE SEP 01 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM PUERTO COSTA MAYA SOUTHWARD TO CHETUMAL. THE GOVERNMENT OF GUATEMALA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE CARIBBEAN SEA COAST OF GUATEMALA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * YUCATAN MEXICO FROM PUERTO COSTA MAYA TO CHETUMAL A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTHERN HONDURAS * ROATAN ISLAND AND THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS * CARIBBEAN SEA COAST OF GUATEMALA * BELIZE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 TO 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 79.3W AT 01/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 0SE 0SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 70NE 0SE 0SW 70NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 79.3W AT 01/2100Z AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 78.4W FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 17.1N 81.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 17.3N 84.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 17.2N 87.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 40SE 0SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 16.9N 89.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 16.5N 91.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.8N 79.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 02/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm Omar Forecast Discussion Number 5
2020-09-01 22:48:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Tue Sep 01 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 012048 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Omar Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152020 500 PM EDT Tue Sep 01 2020 Satellite images show that the system remains sheared with a bursting pattern on satellite, occasionally exposing the center, and a large area of curved bands in the southeastern quadrant of the circulation. Almost all of the subjective and objective Dvorak estimates, along with SATCON values, are between 35 to 40 kt, and the lower number is chosen as the initial wind speed since scatterometer data suggests 30 to 35 kt. This makes Omar the 15th named storm of the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season, and is the earliest 15th storm on record, besting the previous mark by about a week from Ophelia of 2005. Any chance for strengthening should end by tomorrow afternoon due to greatly increasing shear, and weakening is likely to commence by then. The persistence of the shear should cause the cyclone to decay into a remnant low in about 48 hours, if not sooner. No significant changes were made to the previous forecast, which is near the model consensus. The initial motion remains east-northeast or 065/13 kt. The cyclone is being steered by the northern side of the subtropical ridge, which is forecast to cause a similar motion through tomorrow and an eastward turn late week due to the orientation of the ridge. The only notable change to the forecast is a slow down at long range in most of the guidance, probably due to a shallow system no longer feeling the stronger deep-layer winds, so the NHC track prediction follows suit. The remnant low should dissipate in 4-5 days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/2100Z 35.3N 71.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 02/0600Z 36.1N 69.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 02/1800Z 36.7N 66.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 03/0600Z 37.2N 63.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 03/1800Z 37.2N 61.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 04/0600Z 37.0N 59.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 04/1800Z 37.0N 57.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 05/1800Z 39.5N 53.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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Summary for Tropical Storm Omar (AT5/AL152020)
2020-09-01 22:47:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL STORM OMAR FORMS BUT EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-LIVED... As of 5:00 PM EDT Tue Sep 1 the center of Omar was located near 35.3, -71.5 with movement ENE at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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