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Tropical Storm Nana Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2020-09-02 04:36:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 02 2020 000 FONT11 KNHC 020236 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM NANA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162020 0300 UTC WED SEP 02 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NANA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT FRONTERA MX 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) MERIDA MX 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) COZUMEL MX 34 2 5( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) BELIZE CITY 34 1 23(24) 53(77) 1(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) BELIZE CITY 50 X 3( 3) 31(34) 1(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) BELIZE CITY 64 X X( X) 10(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X 2( 2) 24(26) 4(30) 1(31) X(31) X(31) PUERTO BARRIOS 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PUERTO BARRIOS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GUANAJA 34 2 61(63) 4(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) GUANAJA 50 X 31(31) 4(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) GUANAJA 64 X 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLE OF PINES 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GRAND CAYMAN 34 4 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Tropical Storm Nana Public Advisory Number 4
2020-09-02 04:36:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Tue Sep 01 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 020236 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Nana Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162020 1100 PM EDT Tue Sep 01 2020 ...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS NANA A LITTLE STRONGER... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.0N 80.9W ABOUT 320 MI...520 KM ENE OF LIMON HONDURAS ABOUT 485 MI...775 KM E OF BELIZE CITY MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Entire coast of Belize A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Yucatan Mexico from Puerto Costa Maya to Chetumal * Entire coast of Belize A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Northern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca westward to the Guatemala border * Roatan Island and the Bay Islands of Honduras * Caribbean Sea coast of Guatemala A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 36 to 48 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 to 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nana was located near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 80.9 West. Nana is moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Wednesday. A westward or west-southwestward motion is expected Wednesday night and Thursday. On the forecast track, Nana will be moving near but north of the coast of Honduras on Wednesday and likely be approaching the coast of Belize Wednesday night and early Thursday. Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected, and Nana is forecast to become a hurricane on Wednesday or Wednesday night before it reaches the coast of Belize. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical Storm conditions are expected within the warning area in Belize by late Wednesday, with hurricane conditions likely over a portion of the area Wednesday night and early Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area in Mexico and Guatemala late Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area in Honduras on Wednesday. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast near and to the north of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Nana is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches in Belize and northern Guatemala. 2 to 4 inches of rain is expected across northern Honduras and the southeast portion of the Mexican state of Quintana Roo. SURF: Swells generated by Nana are affecting portions of the southern coast of Jamaica and the Cayman Islands, and will spread along the coasts of Honduras and Belize on Wednesday and Wednesday night. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Omar Graphics
2020-09-02 04:36:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 02 Sep 2020 02:36:20 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 02 Sep 2020 02:36:20 GMT
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Tropical Storm Nana Forecast Advisory Number 4
2020-09-02 04:36:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 02 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 020236 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM NANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162020 0300 UTC WED SEP 02 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ENTIRE COAST OF BELIZE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * YUCATAN MEXICO FROM PUERTO COSTA MAYA TO CHETUMAL * ENTIRE COAST OF BELIZE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM PUNTA PATUCA WESTWARD TO THE GUATEMALA BORDER * ROATAN ISLAND AND THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS * CARIBBEAN SEA COAST OF GUATEMALA A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 TO 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 80.9W AT 02/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 30SE 0SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 70NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 80.9W AT 02/0300Z AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 80.1W FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 17.1N 83.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 17.0N 86.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 16.8N 88.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 40SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 16.5N 90.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 16.2N 93.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 80.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 02/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Storm Omar Forecast Discussion Number 6
2020-09-02 04:35:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Tue Sep 01 2020 769 WTNT45 KNHC 020235 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Omar Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152020 1100 PM EDT Tue Sep 01 2020 Omar is battling strong northwesterly shear, as any burst of convection that tries to develop near the center is quickly pushed off well to the southeast of the cyclone's exposed low-level center. The initial intensity is being held at 35 kt based on a combination of the latest Dvorak CI values from UW-CIMSS, SAB and TAFB, as as well as data from a recent ASCAT overpass showing similar winds compared to earlier today. These intermittent bursts of convection should sustain Omar as a tropical storm at least through early Wednesday. However, the shear is expected to get even stronger by late Wednesday, which should cause a weakening trend to begin around that time. By Thursday night, if not sooner, any organized deep convection is expected to have diminished, and Omar is forecast to become a remnant low. An approaching frontal system should absorb what is left of the remnants a couple of days later. The latest NHC intensity forecast is the same as the previous one, and is in agreement with the various intensity aids. Omar continues to move east-northeast, now at 12 kt. The steering pattern is straightforward over the next few days, as the cyclone will be steered east-northeast then eastward around the northern periphery of a subtropical ridge. Later on in the forecast period, once Omar has become a remnant low, a turn to the northeast is expected ahead of the approaching frontal boundary. The latest NHC track forecast is little changed from the previous one, and lies in the middle of the tightly clustered track guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0300Z 35.8N 70.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 02/1200Z 36.4N 68.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 03/0000Z 37.0N 65.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 03/1200Z 37.2N 62.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 04/0000Z 37.0N 60.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 04/1200Z 36.9N 58.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 05/0000Z 37.4N 56.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 06/0000Z 40.0N 52.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto
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