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Tropical Storm Nana Forecast Discussion Number 2
2020-09-01 18:56:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 100 PM EDT Tue Sep 01 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 011656 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Nana Special Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162020 100 PM EDT Tue Sep 01 2020 An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft investigating the vigorous disturbance south of Jamaica this morning has found that the system has a well-defined, closed circulation center. The aircraft also measured 60 kt at 925 mb in the northeastern quadrant and reliable SFMR surface winds of 45 kt. Based on these data, the system has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Nana, the 14th named tropical storm of the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season. The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 280/14 kt, No significant changes were made to the previous track forecast. A strong deep-layer to the north of the system is expected to build slowly westward over the next few days, keeping the disturbance moving in a general west-northwestward to westward direction through 48 hours, followed by a turn toward the west-southwest shortly thereafter when the system will be inland over Central America. The NHC official forecast track lies close to a blend of the simple consensus models TVCN and GFEX, and the corrected-consensus model HCCA. Nana has developed a well-defined upper-level anticyclone, with outflow gradually improving in all quadrants. Modest northeasterly to easterly vertical wind shear is expected to gradually subside to less than 10 kt by 48 hours, which should allow for at least some slow but steady strengthening, given that sea-surface temperatures (SST) will be 29.5-30.5 deg C along the track. Some dry air intrusions might hinder development for the next 24 hours or so, but the global and regional models still indicate that the atmosphere will moisten thereafter, and continue to moisten right up until landfall. Based on the higher initial intensity and the mostly favorable environmental conditions expected after 24 hours, the peak forecast intensity has been increased to 65 kt at 48 hours, just prior to landfall. Due to the Nana's expected proximity to Belize in 48 hours, a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for that country. Additional watches and possible warnings will likely be required later today for Guatemala and the southern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Tropical Storm Nana is now forecast to be a hurricane as it approaches the coast, and interests in Honduras, Guatemala, Belize and Yucatan should closely monitor the progress of this storm. Strong winds, dangerous storm surge and very heavy rainfall causing flash flooding are becoming more likely from Nana. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1700Z 16.6N 77.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 02/0000Z 16.6N 79.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 02/1200Z 16.7N 82.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 03/0000Z 16.8N 85.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 03/1200Z 16.8N 87.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 04/0000Z 16.5N 89.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 04/1200Z 15.7N 91.7W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Nana Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2020-09-01 18:48:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1700 UTC TUE SEP 01 2020 000 FONT11 KNHC 011648 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM NANA SPECIAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162020 1700 UTC TUE SEP 01 2020 AT 1700Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NANA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT FRONTERA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) BELIZE CITY 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 38(45) 8(53) X(53) X(53) BELIZE CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) 13(13) 5(18) X(18) X(18) BELIZE CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 9(16) X(16) X(16) PUERTO BARRIOS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GUANAJA 34 X 3( 3) 35(38) 21(59) 1(60) X(60) X(60) GUANAJA 50 X X( X) 11(11) 17(28) 1(29) X(29) X(29) GUANAJA 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLE OF PINES 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GRAND CAYMAN 34 2 9(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) MONTEGO BAY 34 6 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) KINGSTON 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Tropical Storm Nana Forecast Advisory Number 2
2020-09-01 18:47:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1700 UTC TUE SEP 01 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 011647 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM NANA SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162020 1700 UTC TUE SEP 01 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF BELIZE FROM NORTH OF PUNTA BARRIOS GUATEMALA NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF CHETUMAL MEXICO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTHERN HONDURAS * ROATAN ISLAND AND THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS * BELIZE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF GUATEMALA AND THE SOUTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA LATER TODAY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 77.9W AT 01/1700Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 0SE 0SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 70NE 0SE 0SW 70NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 77.9W AT 01/1700Z AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 76.8W FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 16.6N 79.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 16.7N 82.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 16.8N 85.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 16.8N 87.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 16.5N 89.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 15.7N 91.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.6N 77.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 01/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Summary for Tropical Storm Nana (AT1/AL162020)
2020-09-01 18:10:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE STRENGTHENS TO TROPICAL STORM NANA... As of 12:05 PM EDT Tue Sep 1 the center of Nana was located near 16.5, -77.7 with movement W at 18 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm Nana Update Statement
2020-09-01 18:10:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1205 PM EDT Tue Sep 01 2020 000 WTNT61 KNHC 011610 TCUAT1 Tropical Storm Nana Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162020 1205 PM EDT Tue Sep 01 2020 ...POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE STRENGTHENS TO TROPICAL STORM NANA... Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data indicate that the potential tropical cyclone has become Tropical Storm Nana. The maximum winds are estimated to be 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. A special advisory will be issued to update the forecast within the hour. SUMMARY OF 1205 PM AST...1605 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.5N 77.7W ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES $$ Forecaster Blake/Stewart
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