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Tropical Storm Iselle Forecast Discussion Number 11
2020-08-29 04:32:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Fri Aug 28 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 290232 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Iselle Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142020 800 PM PDT Fri Aug 28 2020 Persistent bursts of deep convection continue to develop just to the west of Iselle's center, which occasionally becomes hidden beneath the cirrus outflow (as it is now). Dvorak final-T numbers from TAFB and SAB are 3.0/45 kt based on a shear pattern, and along with what was shown by an afternoon ASCAT pass, Iselle's intensity remains 45 kt. Strong shear from the east-northeast is forecast to continue for the next 24 hours or so. After that time, the shear should relax, but then the thermodynamic environment becomes more limiting with Iselle moving over sub-26C waters and into a much more stable environment. All told, Iselle is expected to steadily weaken during the next several days, and it is likely to degenerate into a remnant low on Sunday. The NHC forecast is very similar to the previous prediction and is close to HCCA and the IVCN intensity consensus aid. The remnant low is expected to dissipate in about 4 days. Iselle is moving slowly north-northeastward (015/5 kt) on the western periphery of a low- to mid-level area of high pressure centered over Mexico. This high, along with a trough extending off the coast of California, should cause Iselle to gradually turn toward the north and then north-northwest with some increase in forward speed during the next couple of days. There is a typical amount of spread among the track models, and they generally agree on this northward motion with a slight bend to the left through the forecast period. The regional hurricane models appear almost in a cluster all to themselves on the eastern side of the guidance envelope, and the NHC forecast therefore closely follows the TVDG model consensus aid, which gives double weight to the global models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0300Z 19.3N 115.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 29/1200Z 20.2N 115.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 30/0000Z 21.7N 115.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 30/1200Z 23.1N 115.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 31/0000Z 24.2N 115.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 31/1200Z 24.9N 116.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 01/0000Z 25.6N 116.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Iselle Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2020-08-29 04:31:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT AUG 29 2020 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 290231 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM ISELLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142020 0300 UTC SAT AUG 29 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 115W 34 90 2(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) 20N 115W 50 10 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) 20N 115W 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER BERG
Summary for Tropical Storm Iselle (EP4/EP142020)
2020-08-29 04:31:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ISELLE FORECAST TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... As of 8:00 PM PDT Fri Aug 28 the center of Iselle was located near 19.3, -115.2 with movement NNE at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm Iselle Public Advisory Number 11
2020-08-29 04:31:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Fri Aug 28 2020 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 290231 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Iselle Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142020 800 PM PDT Fri Aug 28 2020 ...ISELLE FORECAST TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.3N 115.2W ABOUT 420 MI...680 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Iselle was located near latitude 19.3 North, longitude 115.2 West. Iselle is moving toward the north-northeast near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through early Saturday. A turn toward the north at a faster forward speed is expected on Saturday, followed by a north-northwestward motion Saturday night through Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next few days, and Iselle is expected to become a tropical depression Saturday night. The depression should then degenerate into a remnant low on Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Iselle and a large area of southwesterly winds to its south are affecting portions of the southwestern and west-central coast of Mexico, as well as the west coast of Baja California Sur. These swells are expected to continue for the next few days and will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Iselle Forecast Advisory Number 11
2020-08-29 04:31:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT AUG 29 2020 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 290231 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM ISELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142020 0300 UTC SAT AUG 29 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 115.2W AT 29/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 30SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 115.2W AT 29/0300Z AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 115.3W FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 20.2N 115.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 21.7N 115.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 23.1N 115.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 24.2N 115.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 24.9N 116.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 25.6N 116.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.3N 115.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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