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Tropical Storm Iselle Graphics
2020-08-28 22:36:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 28 Aug 2020 20:36:39 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 28 Aug 2020 21:38:35 GMT
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Tropical Storm Iselle Forecast Discussion Number 10
2020-08-28 22:32:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Fri Aug 28 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 282032 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Iselle Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142020 200 PM PDT Fri Aug 28 2020 First light visible imagery shows that Iselle's center of circulation has once again reappeared to the northeast of the deep convective mass. Last night's briefly diminished shear interlude probably resulted in Iselle's peak intensity. For this advisory, the initial intensity is lowered to 45 kt which is based on a blend of the Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB, a METOP-B ASCAT overpass containing 40-45 kt winds and a SATCON analysis of 42 kt. The northeasterly shear is forecast to persist through the 24 hour period and then decrease and veer from the southeast. At that time, however, Iselle will be traversing sub 25C sea surface temperatures and will be moving into a more dry and stable surrounding environment. As a result, Iselle should weaken to a tropical depression Saturday night and degenerate to a remnant low on Sunday. The initial motion is estimated to be north-northeastward, or, 020/6 kt. A northward direction should commence Saturday morning, then a turn north-northwestward is forecast Sunday morning. As Iselle continues to weaken and degenerates to a remnant low, a turn toward the northwest, well offshore of the southern coast of the Baja California peninsula, is expected to occur Sunday late night. The NHC forecast is an update of the previous advisory and is close to the GFEX (FV3/ECMWF mean) and the NOAA HCCA consensus model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/2100Z 18.8N 115.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 29/0600Z 19.6N 114.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 29/1800Z 21.0N 114.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 30/0600Z 22.6N 115.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 30/1800Z 23.7N 115.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 31/0600Z 24.4N 116.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 31/1800Z 25.1N 117.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Summary for Tropical Storm Iselle (EP4/EP142020)
2020-08-28 22:32:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ISELLE PRODUCING TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS OVER CLARION ISLAND... As of 2:00 PM PDT Fri Aug 28 the center of Iselle was located near 18.8, -115.2 with movement NNE at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm Iselle Public Advisory Number 10
2020-08-28 22:32:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Fri Aug 28 2020 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 282032 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Iselle Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142020 200 PM PDT Fri Aug 28 2020 ...ISELLE PRODUCING TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS OVER CLARION ISLAND... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.8N 115.2W ABOUT 445 MI...715 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Iselle was located near latitude 18.8 North, longitude 115.2 West. Iselle is moving toward the north-northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue through tonight. A northward turn is expected by Saturday morning followed by a north-northwestward motion on Sunday morning. Afterward, Post-Tropical/Remnant Low Iselle is forecast to turn northwestward in the low-level flow. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Further weakening is forecast and Iselle should become a tropical depression Saturday night, degenerate to a remnant low on Sunday and dissipate early next week. An observing site at Clarion Island, MX recently reported a sustained wind of 40 mph (65 km/hr) and a gust of 48 mph (80 km/hr). Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Iselle and a large area of southwesterly winds to its south are affecting portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico. These swells are expected to spread northward along the coast of west-central Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula through Sunday, and will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Storm Iselle Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2020-08-28 22:32:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI AUG 28 2020 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 282032 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM ISELLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142020 2100 UTC FRI AUG 28 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 20N 115W 34 50 18(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) 20N 115W 50 5 6(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) 20N 115W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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