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Tropical Storm Hernan Forecast Discussion Number 7
2020-08-27 22:34:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Thu Aug 27 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 272034 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Hernan Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132020 300 PM MDT Thu Aug 27 2020 Hernan has had a rather ragged appearance today with intermittent convection firing around, but never really over the center. There were no ASCAT overpasses during the day that directly sampled the system's circulation. The latest Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB support 35 kt and 30 kt, respectively, while the UW-CIMSS ADT and SATCON numbers range from 30 to 40 kt. Based on a blend of these values, the initial intensity is being lowered to 35 kt. Hernan should at least maintain its current strength through tonight as it remains over very warm waters while battling moderate easterly shear. This shear is not forecast to abate during the forecast period. And by 24 h, the cyclone is expected to begin moving over progressively cooler waters. The combination of these two factors should induce a weakening trend. By 60 h, simulated satellite imagery by global models suggest that the cyclone will become devoid of deep convection. After that time, the remnant low is expected to be absorbed within the broader circulation of Iselle to its west. The latest NHC intensity forecast is in agreement with the various intensity consensus aids. Hernan is now moving northwest at about 5 kt. There is no change to the track forecast reasoning. Hernan is expected to remain caught within a large-scale, eastern North Pacific cyclonic gyre during the next few days, which will result in Hernan moving counter-clockwise around the eastern and northern periphery of the gyre. The cyclone is expected to continue to parallel the coast of southwestern Mexico through this evening and should begin to increase its forward speed tonight. A turn to the west-northwest then west is forecast Friday through Friday night. The westward motion should continue until the system becomes absorbed early next week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/2100Z 19.6N 106.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 28/0600Z 20.7N 107.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 28/1800Z 21.6N 109.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 29/0600Z 22.3N 111.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 29/1800Z 22.5N 113.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 60H 30/0600Z 22.6N 114.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 30/1800Z...ABSORBED $$ Forecaster Latto
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Summary for Tropical Storm Hernan (EP3/EP132020)
2020-08-27 22:33:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...HERNAN WEAKENS SLIGHTLY AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... As of 3:00 PM MDT Thu Aug 27 the center of Hernan was located near 19.6, -106.5 with movement NW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Hernan Public Advisory Number 7
2020-08-27 22:33:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Thu Aug 27 2020 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 272033 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Hernan Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132020 300 PM MDT Thu Aug 27 2020 ...HERNAN WEAKENS SLIGHTLY AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.6N 106.5W ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM SW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hernan was located near latitude 19.6 North, longitude 106.5 West. Hernan is moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), an increase in forward speed is expected to occur by tonight. A turn to the west-northwest then west is forecast to occur Friday and Friday night. On the forecast track, the center of Hernan, along with the strongest winds and heaviest rains, is expected to remain just offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow weakening is forecast over the next couple of days and Hernan is expected to degenerate into a remnant low late this weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Iselle Graphics
2020-08-27 22:33:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 27 Aug 2020 20:33:51 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 27 Aug 2020 20:33:51 GMT
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Tropical Storm Hernan Forecast Advisory Number 7
2020-08-27 22:33:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU AUG 27 2020 551 WTPZ23 KNHC 272033 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM HERNAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132020 2100 UTC THU AUG 27 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 106.5W AT 27/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 50SE 90SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 210SE 150SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 106.5W AT 27/2100Z AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 106.2W FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 20.7N 107.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 40SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 21.6N 109.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 22.3N 111.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 22.5N 113.0W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 22.6N 114.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.6N 106.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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