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Tropical Storm Laura Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14
2020-08-23 10:59:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN AUG 23 2020 000 FONT13 KNHC 230859 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM LAURA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132020 0900 UTC SUN AUG 23 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LAURA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) 3(19) X(19) X(19) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 5(10) X(10) X(10) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 2(13) X(13) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) 1(11) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 2(10) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 2(11) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 5(26) X(26) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) 5(19) MOBILE AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 16(21) 6(27) GULFPORT MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) GULFPORT MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 20(25) 7(32) STENNIS MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) STENNIS MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 19(29) 6(35) BURAS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 2(10) BURAS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 40(40) 14(54) 1(55) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 9(22) X(22) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 13(32) JACKSON MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) JACKSON MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 25(31) 9(40) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 4(14) NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 31(31) 31(62) 2(64) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 21(31) 2(33) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 1(14) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 32(35) 13(48) BATON ROUGE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 7(22) BATON ROUGE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 32(39) 11(50) MORGAN CITY LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 5(21) MORGAN CITY LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 31(32) 17(49) ALEXANDRIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 9(21) ALEXANDRIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 35(38) 15(53) LAFAYETTE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 7(24) LAFAYETTE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 36(40) 13(53) NEW IBERIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 7(24) NEW IBERIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 34(46) 3(49) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 19(21) 2(23) GFMX 280N 930W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 15(35) SHREVEPORT LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) FORT POLK LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 31(32) 15(47) FORT POLK LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 7(20) FORT POLK LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 35(37) 12(49) LAKE CHARLES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 7(23) LAKE CHARLES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 37(43) 9(52) CAMERON LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 5(25) CAMERON LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 2(11) JASPER TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 28(29) 12(41) JASPER TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 5(18) JASPER TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) KOUNTZE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 27(28) 10(38) KOUNTZE TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 5(18) KOUNTZE TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 30(31) 10(41) PORT ARTHUR TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 5(20) PORT ARTHUR TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 25(28) 6(34) GALVESTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 3(13) GALVESTON TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 6(24) HOUSTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) HOUSTON TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) AUSTIN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) SAN ANTONIO TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 4(21) FREEPORT TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) FREEPORT TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 18(21) 3(24) GFMX 280N 950W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) GFMX 280N 950W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 27(29) 7(36) HIGH ISLAND TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 4(15) HIGH ISLAND TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 3(18) MATAGORDA TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) MATAGORDA TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 2(13) PORT O CONNOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) ROCKPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 1(11) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ANDROS 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GREAT EXUMA 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MAYAGUANA 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GRAND TURK 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 8(13) 1(14) X(14) HAVANA 34 X X( X) 10(10) 29(39) 2(41) X(41) X(41) HAVANA 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) HAVANA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) 1(15) 1(16) X(16) CIENFUEGOS 34 X 1( 1) 32(33) 4(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) CIENFUEGOS 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAMAGUEY 34 X 24(24) 21(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) CAMAGUEY 50 X 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 3 47(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) GUANTANAMO BAY 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LES CAYES 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 34 X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) PUERTO PLATA 34 79 X(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) SANTO DOMINGO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PENSACOLA NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 6(16) 2(18) KEESLER AB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 15(27) 3(30) KEESLER AB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) KEESLER AB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Tropical Storm Laura Forecast Advisory Number 14
2020-08-23 10:58:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN AUG 23 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 230858 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM LAURA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132020 0900 UTC SUN AUG 23 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...VILLA CLARA...CIENFUEGOS...MATANZAS...MAYABEQUE...LA HABANA...AND ARTEMISA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO THE BORDER WITH HAITI * THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO PUNTA PALENQUE * THE NORTHERN COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS TO THE BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC * THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS * CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...HOLGUIN...GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...GRANMA...CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...VILLA CLARA...CIENFUEGOS...MATANZAS...MAYABEQUE...LA HABANA...AND ARTEMISA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS * ANDROS ISLAND * FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO KEY WEST AND THE DRY TORTUGAS * FLORIDA BAY * CUBAN PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA TODAY. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 70.9W AT 23/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 0SE 0SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 70.9W AT 23/0900Z AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 70.1W FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 19.8N 73.7W...OVER WATER WINDWARD PASSAGE MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 80SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 20.9N 77.5W...INLAND EASTERN CUBA MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 80SE 0SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 22.2N 81.1W...INLAND WESTERN CUBA MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 80SE 0SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 23.5N 84.2W...OVER WATER SE GULF OF MEXICO MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 80SE 0SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 24.9N 87.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...130NE 90SE 40SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 26.4N 89.4W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 100SE 50SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 29.9N 92.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 35.0N 91.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.8N 70.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 23/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm Marco Forecast Discussion Number 12
2020-08-23 10:58:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 230858 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Marco Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020 400 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2020 Thunderstorm bursts continue to fire near the center of Marco, then weaken an hour or two later due to persistent shear. Overall, the storm's appearance hasn't changed with nearly all of the deep convection very near or northeast of the center. Although the satellite presentation is somewhat lacking at the moment, the earlier Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter mission found believable SFMR values to 60 kt, so that value remains the initial wind speed. The intensity forecast remains tricky with Marco due to its small size and marginal environment. There are some models that briefly relax the shear today, which will likely be enough of a change to allow Marco to reach hurricane strength. Later on, while the cyclone is near the coast of Louisiana, the shear is forecast to increase, but it is unknown exactly how close to landfall this will occur. Our best forecast at this time is that the strongest winds will be confined to the coast, and that Marco will then weaken faster than most hurricanes do over the swamps of Louisiana due to the shear. No significant changes were made to the intensity forecast, which is very close to the model consensus. The new forecast necessitates the issuance of hurricane warnings for portions of southeastern Louisiana. Marco continues moving north-northwestward or 335/11 kt. This general track and speed is likely today, with a turn to the northwest and decrease in forward speed expected as the storm weakens late Monday. While the track forecast is essentially unchanged from the previous one, there is still a fair bit of spread in the model guidance, likely tied to the intensity forecast. The stronger guidance is near or northeast of the new model consensus, due to the upper-level flow, and the NHC forecast leans in that direction, close to the previous official prediction. Key Messages: 1. Hurricane conditions, life-threatening storm surge, and heavy rainfall are expected from Marco along portions of the Gulf Coast beginning on Monday, and Hurricane and Storm Surge Warnings have been issued. Interests in these areas should follow any advice given by local government officials. 2. Tropical Storm Laura could bring additional storm surge, rainfall, and wind impacts to portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast by the middle of next week. This could result in a prolonged period of hazardous weather for areas that may also be affected by Marco. Interests there should monitor the progress of Marco and Laura and updates to the forecast during the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0900Z 23.7N 87.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 23/1800Z 25.3N 87.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 24/0600Z 27.3N 88.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 24/1800Z 29.0N 89.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 25/0600Z 29.9N 91.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 60H 25/1800Z 30.5N 93.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 26/0600Z 31.0N 95.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 96H 27/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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Summary for Tropical Storm Marco (AT4/AL142020)
2020-08-23 10:56:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... As of 4:00 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 the center of Marco was located near 23.7, -87.0 with movement NNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 994 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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Tropical Storm Marco Public Advisory Number 12
2020-08-23 10:56:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 230856 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Marco Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020 400 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2020 ...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.7N 87.0W ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM NW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA ABOUT 395 MI...635 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Storm Surge Warning has been issued from Morgan City Louisiana to Ocean Springs Mississippi. A Hurricane Warning has been issued for the coast of Louisiana from Morgan City to the Mouth of the Pearl River. A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for Louisiana for Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans The Hurricane Watch from the Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama border has been changed to a Tropical Storm Warning. The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued for the province of Pinar del Rio Cuba for Marco. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for.... * Morgan City Louisiana to Ocean Springs Mississippi * Lake Borgne A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Morgan City Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Sabine Pass to Morgan City Louisiana * Ocean Springs to the Alabama/Florida border * Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Mobile Bay A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Intracoastal City Louisiana to west of Morgan City * Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama border * Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Mississippi/Alabama border to the Alabama/Florida border A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Marco was located near latitude 23.7 North, longitude 87.0 West. Marco is moving toward the north-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). Marco is forecast to continue moving north-northwestward across the central Gulf of Mexico today and will approach southeastern Louisiana on Monday. A gradual turn toward the west with a decrease in forward speed is expected after Marco moves inland on Monday and on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is anticipated and Marco is forecast to become a hurricane today. Marco is expected to be a hurricane when it approaches the northern Gulf Coast on Monday. Rapid weakening is expected after Marco moves inland. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the Air Force reconnaissance plane is 994 mb (29.36 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Sabine Pass to Morgan City...2-4 ft Morgan City to Ocean Springs including Lake Borgne...4-6 ft Ocean Springs to the AL/FL Border including Mobile Bay...2-4 ft Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...2-4 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning watch area by midday Monday, with tropical storm conditions possible by early Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area on Monday, and hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch areas late on Monday. RAINFALL: Marco is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches across the Central U.S. Gulf coast through Tuesday. This rainfall may result in isolated areas of flash and urban flooding along the Central U.S. Gulf Coast. SURF: Swells generated by Marco are likely to affect portions of the northern Gulf Coast later today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. TORNADOES: An isolated tornado will be possible early Monday morning near the southeast Louisiana coast. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Blake
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