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Summary for Tropical Storm Marco (AT4/AL142020)
2020-08-23 16:57:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...MARCO EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TODAY AS IT ENTERS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE U.S. GULF COAST... As of 10:00 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 the center of Marco was located near 24.7, -87.3 with movement NNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 993 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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Tropical Storm Marco Public Advisory Number 13
2020-08-23 16:57:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 231457 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Marco Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020 1000 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2020 ...MARCO EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TODAY AS IT ENTERS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE U.S. GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.7N 87.3W ABOUT 325 MI...520 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ABOUT 475 MI...765 KM SE OF LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Storm Surge Watch has been discontinued from the Mississippi/Alabama border to the Alabama/Florida border, including Mobile Bay. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for.... * Morgan City Louisiana to Ocean Springs Mississippi * Lake Borgne A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Morgan City Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Sabine Pass to Morgan City Louisiana * Ocean Springs Mississippi to the Mississippi/Alabama border * Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Intracoastal City Louisiana to west of Morgan City * Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama border * Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Mississippi/Alabama border to the Alabama/Florida border A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Marco was located near latitude 24.7 North, longitude 87.3 West. Marco is moving toward the north-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through tonight, followed by a turn to the northwest by Monday. On the forecast track, Marco will cross the central Gulf of Mexico today and will approach southeastern Louisiana on Monday. A gradual turn toward the west-northwest with a decrease in forward speed is expected after Marco moves inland. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is anticipated and Marco is forecast to become a hurricane later today and be at hurricane strength when it approaches the northern Gulf Coast on Monday. Rapid weakening is expected after Marco moves inland. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Morgan City LA to Ocean Springs MS including Lake Borgne...4-6 ft Sabine Pass to Morgan City LA...2-4 ft Ocean Springs MS to the MS/AL Border...2-4 ft Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...2-4 ft MS/AL Border to AL/FL Border including Mobile Bay...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area by midday Monday, with tropical storm conditions possible by early Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area on Monday, and hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch areas late Monday. RAINFALL: Marco is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches across the Central U.S. Gulf coast through Tuesday. This rainfall may result in isolated areas of flash and urban flooding along the Central U.S. Gulf Coast. SURF: Swells generated by Marco are likely to affect portions of the northern Gulf Coast later today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. TORNADOES: An isolated tornado will be possible early Monday morning near the southeast Louisiana coast. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Marco Forecast Advisory Number 13
2020-08-23 16:57:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN AUG 23 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 231457 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM MARCO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142020 1500 UTC SUN AUG 23 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FROM THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER...INCLUDING MOBILE BAY. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR.... * MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO OCEAN SPRINGS MISSISSIPPI * LAKE BORGNE A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SABINE PASS TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA * OCEAN SPRINGS MISSISSIPPI TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO WEST OF MORGAN CITY * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 87.3W AT 23/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 20SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 87.3W AT 23/1500Z AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.3N 87.2W FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 26.4N 88.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 28.2N 89.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 29.5N 90.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 10SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 30.5N 92.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 31.2N 93.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 31.8N 95.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.7N 87.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 23/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Tropical Storm Marco Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13
2020-08-23 16:57:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN AUG 23 2020 000 FONT14 KNHC 231457 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM MARCO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142020 1500 UTC SUN AUG 23 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARCO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT APALACHICOLA 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GFMX 290N 850W 34 1 3( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PANAMA CITY FL 34 1 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WHITING FLD FL 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PENSACOLA FL 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GFMX 290N 870W 34 1 13(14) 3(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) MOBILE AL 34 X 2( 2) 12(14) 3(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) GULFPORT MS 34 X 3( 3) 35(38) 5(43) 1(44) X(44) X(44) GULFPORT MS 50 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GULFPORT MS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) STENNIS MS 34 X 3( 3) 46(49) 7(56) 1(57) X(57) X(57) STENNIS MS 50 X X( X) 11(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) STENNIS MS 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BURAS LA 34 X 22(22) 49(71) 2(73) 1(74) X(74) X(74) BURAS LA 50 X 5( 5) 26(31) 2(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) BURAS LA 64 X X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GFMX 280N 890W 34 3 88(91) 2(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X 55(55) 6(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X 20(20) 4(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) JACKSON MS 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X 4( 4) 54(58) 9(67) 2(69) X(69) X(69) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X X( X) 24(24) 6(30) 1(31) X(31) X(31) NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X 8( 8) 14(22) 2(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X 2( 2) 33(35) 18(53) 2(55) X(55) X(55) BATON ROUGE LA 50 X X( X) 9( 9) 8(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) BATON ROUGE LA 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X 2( 2) 38(40) 15(55) 2(57) X(57) X(57) MORGAN CITY LA 50 X X( X) 11(11) 7(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) MORGAN CITY LA 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 17(24) 6(30) X(30) X(30) ALEXANDRIA LA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X 1( 1) 18(19) 18(37) 3(40) X(40) X(40) LAFAYETTE LA 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) LAFAYETTE LA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X 1( 1) 21(22) 17(39) 3(42) X(42) X(42) NEW IBERIA LA 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) NEW IBERIA LA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 7(13) X(13) X(13) FORT POLK LA 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 12(16) 7(23) X(23) X(23) FORT POLK LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LAKE CHARLES 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 10(14) 6(20) X(20) X(20) LAKE CHARLES 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CAMERON LA 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 9(14) 4(18) X(18) X(18) CAMERON LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CAMERON LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) JASPER TX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 8(16) X(16) X(16) KOUNTZE TX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 6(12) X(12) X(12) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 6(12) X(12) X(12) GALVESTON TX 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) X( 9) HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) X( 9) MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PENSACOLA NAS 34 X 6( 6) 4(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) KEESLER AB 34 X 9( 9) 31(40) 3(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) KEESLER AB 50 X 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) KEESLER AB 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) $$ FORECASTER LATTO
Tropical Storm Laura Forecast Discussion Number 15
2020-08-23 16:54:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 231454 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Laura Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020 1100 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2020 Laura continues to produce a large area of deep convection to the south and southeast of the estimated center location. The center has not been easy to locate this morning, but the low-cloud motions seen in GOES-16 one-minute visible imagery, along with surface observations, suggest that the center is just west of the west coast of Haiti. Data from a NOAA P-3 aircraft that has flown a tail-Doppler radar mission along the southern and northern coasts of Hispaniola this morning found maximum winds of 40-45 kt, so the initial intensity has been set at 45 kt. Little change in strength is expected during the next 36 hours while Laura moves near or over Cuba. When the center of Laura emerges over the Gulf of Mexico Monday night, the upper-level environment is expected to be conducive for strengthening, and once the circulation recovers from its trek over land, deepening is anticipated. Warm water and a very favorable upper-level wind pattern are expected to allow for steady intensification until Laura reaches the northern Gulf coast, and with landfall expected between the 72 and 96 h forecast points, the system could be somewhat stronger than explicitly indicated below. The NHC intensity forecast is a blend of the SHIPS and HFIP corrected consensus models. Although the center of Laura was been difficult to track while it passed over Hispaniola, the estimated motion is west-northwestward at about 18 kt. A strong deep-layer ridge over the western Atlantic should continue to steer Laura west-northwestward for the next couple of days. The track guidance has continued to nudge southward during the first 36 hours and the official forecast has been adjusted accordingly, taking the storm closer to the southern coast of Cuba. After that time, the ridge is forecast to build westward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. This pattern should allow Laura to maintain a west-northwestward motion until it approaches the central Gulf, where a northwestward motion is expected to begin as the storm nears the western periphery of the ridge. The dynamical models have trended toward stronger ridging over the eastern Gulf, resulting in a westward shift in the guidance. The NHC track forecast has been moved westward at 72-96 hours, and lies between the GFS and ECMWF solutions. Users are reminded to not to focus on the exact details of the track forecast at the longer range as future adjustments will likely be required, and storm hazards will extend far from the center. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected across portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti, the Turks and Caicos, the southeastern Bahamas, and Cuba through Monday. Heavy rainfall is likely across these areas and could cause mudslides and life-threatening flash and urban flooding. 2. Tropical storm conditions are possible over the central Bahamas and Andros Island tonight and Monday, and in the Florida Keys on Monday. 3. While the details of the long-range track and intensity forecasts remain uncertain, Laura is forecast to strengthen over the Gulf of Mexico and there is an increasing risk of storm surge, rainfall, and wind impacts along portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast by the middle of the week. This could result in a prolonged period of hazardous weather for areas that are likely to be affected by Marco earlier in the week. Interests along the Gulf Coast should monitor the progress of Laura and Marco and updates to the forecast during the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 19.2N 73.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 24/0000Z 20.3N 76.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 24H 24/1200Z 21.6N 79.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...NEAR CUBA 36H 25/0000Z 22.9N 83.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 48H 25/1200Z 24.1N 86.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER 60H 26/0000Z 25.3N 88.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 26/1200Z 26.8N 91.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 27/1200Z 30.9N 94.0W 85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND 120H 28/1200Z 35.7N 92.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Brown
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