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Tropical Storm Laura Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15
2020-08-23 16:54:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN AUG 23 2020 000 FONT13 KNHC 231454 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM LAURA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132020 1500 UTC SUN AUG 23 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LAURA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT FT LAUDERDALE 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MARATHON FL 34 X 2( 2) 7( 9) 1(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) KEY WEST FL 34 X 1( 1) 16(17) 2(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 2(16) X(16) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 2(11) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) 2(15) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 12(18) 2(20) STENNIS MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 9(20) 2(22) BURAS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) BURAS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 38(40) 5(45) X(45) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 2(12) X(12) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 6(21) JACKSON MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 15(24) 3(27) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 51(51) 15(66) 1(67) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 11(32) X(32) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 7(14) X(14) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 25(32) 6(38) BATON ROUGE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) BATON ROUGE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 24(36) 4(40) MORGAN CITY LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 1(11) MORGAN CITY LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 35(38) 10(48) ALEXANDRIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 6(18) ALEXANDRIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 33(42) 7(49) LAFAYETTE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 4(18) LAFAYETTE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 31(41) 6(47) NEW IBERIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 3(18) NEW IBERIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 38(38) 28(66) 2(68) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 25(38) 1(39) GFMX 280N 930W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 14(18) 1(19) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 29(30) 14(44) SHREVEPORT LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 9(15) SHREVEPORT LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) FORT POLK LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 39(42) 11(53) FORT POLK LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 7(23) FORT POLK LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 42(49) 8(57) LAKE CHARLES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 5(25) LAKE CHARLES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 2(12) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 40(58) 4(62) CAMERON LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 23(26) 4(30) CAMERON LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 1(13) JASPER TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 39(42) 10(52) JASPER TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 5(22) JASPER TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) KOUNTZE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 41(45) 8(53) KOUNTZE TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 4(25) KOUNTZE TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 2(11) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 43(49) 7(56) PORT ARTHUR TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 23(24) 4(28) PORT ARTHUR TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 2(12) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 38(51) 3(54) GALVESTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 22(24) 3(27) GALVESTON TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 34(38) 5(43) HOUSTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 3(19) HOUSTON TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) AUSTIN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 3(14) AUSTIN TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) SAN ANTONIO TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 30(35) 4(39) FREEPORT TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 2(17) FREEPORT TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 27(42) 2(44) GFMX 280N 950W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) 1(19) GFMX 280N 950W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 40(47) 6(53) HIGH ISLAND TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) 4(26) HIGH ISLAND TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 1(10) MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 24(31) 2(33) MATAGORDA TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 1(13) MATAGORDA TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 19(24) 2(26) PORT O CONNOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9) PORT O CONNOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) ROCKPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 2(14) ROCKPORT TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) ROCKPORT TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 1(10) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 13(19) 1(20) GFMX 270N 960W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) GFMX 270N 960W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) MCALLEN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) HARLINGEN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ANDROS 34 1 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GREAT EXUMA 34 4 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MAYAGUANA 34 6 X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) 3(17) X(17) X(17) HAVANA 34 X 2( 2) 44(46) 5(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) HAVANA 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ISLE OF PINES 34 X 1( 1) 22(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) ISLE OF PINES 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CIENFUEGOS 34 X 18(18) 29(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) CIENFUEGOS 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CAMAGUEY 34 4 58(62) 1(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) CAMAGUEY 50 X 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 92 3(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) GUANTANAMO BAY 50 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) LES CAYES 34 8 X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PUERTO PLATA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PENSACOLA NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 4(12) X(12) KEESLER AB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 8(21) 1(22) KEESLER AB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Tropical Storm Laura Public Advisory Number 15
2020-08-23 16:54:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 231454 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Laura Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020 1100 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2020 ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES OVER PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.2N 73.2W ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM NW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SE OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the Cuban province of Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The northern coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to the border with Haiti * The southern coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to Punta Palenque * The northern coast of Haiti from Le Mole St. Nicholas to the border with the Dominican Republic * The southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands * Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Las Tunas, Holguin, Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Granma, Ciego De Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Matanzas, Mayabeque, La Habana, Artemisa, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The central Bahamas * Andros Island * Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to Key West and the Dry Tortugas * Florida Bay A Tropical Storm Warning for the Dominican Republic and Haiti means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area today. The Tropical Storm Warning for the Cuban provinces means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area during the next 24 to 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Laura was located near latitude 19.2 North, longitude 73.2 West. Laura is moving toward the west-northwest near 21 mph (33 km/h), and this general motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. A turn toward the northwest is foreast on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Laura will move near or over Cuba tonight and Monday, and move over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico Monday night and Tuesday. Laura is expected to move over the central and northwestern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday night and Wednesday. Recent data from a NOAA reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. The strongest winds are primarily occuring over water to the northeast of the center. Little change in strength is forecast while Laura moves near Cuba. Strengthening is forecast after the storm moves over the Gulf of Mexico, and Laura is forecast to become a hurricane late Tuesday or Tuesday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Laura is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Tuesday: Dominican Republic, Haiti and Cuba: 4 to 8 inches, with maximum amounts of 12 inches. This heavy rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash and urban flooding, and the potential for mudslides across the Greater Antilles. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches, is expected over the Turks and Caicos, southeast Bahamas, and Jamaica. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are expected across the Florida Keys. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the warning area in the Dominican Republic and Haiti through tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the warning area in Cuba later today through Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within portions of the watch area tonight through Monday evening. SURF: Swells generated by Laura are affecting portions of the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola. These swells are expected to spread across Cuba, much of the Bahamas, and the Florida Keys during the next few days. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Laura Forecast Advisory Number 15
2020-08-23 16:53:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN AUG 23 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 231453 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM LAURA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132020 1500 UTC SUN AUG 23 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO THE BORDER WITH HAITI * THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO PUNTA PALENQUE * THE NORTHERN COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS TO THE BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC * THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS * CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...HOLGUIN...GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...GRANMA...CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...VILLA CLARA...CIENFUEGOS...MATANZAS...MAYABEQUE...LA HABANA...ARTEMISA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS * ANDROS ISLAND * FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO KEY WEST AND THE DRY TORTUGAS * FLORIDA BAY A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA TODAY. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 73.2W AT 23/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......120NE 120SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 0SE 0SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 73.2W AT 23/1500Z AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 72.3W FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 20.3N 76.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 80SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 21.6N 79.9W...NEAR CUBA MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 80SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 22.9N 83.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 80SE 0SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 24.1N 86.2W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 80SE 30SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 25.3N 88.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...130NE 90SE 40SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 26.8N 91.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 100SE 50SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 30.9N 94.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 35.7N 92.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.2N 73.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 23/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Summary for Tropical Storm Marco (AT4/AL142020)
2020-08-23 13:54:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...MARCO NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT CROSSES THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO... As of 7:00 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 the center of Marco was located near 24.2, -87.1 with movement NNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 993 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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Tropical Storm Marco Public Advisory Number 12A
2020-08-23 13:54:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 700 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 231154 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Marco Intermediate Advisory Number 12A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020 700 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2020 ...MARCO NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT CROSSES THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.2N 87.1W ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM NW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for.... * Morgan City Louisiana to Ocean Springs Mississippi * Lake Borgne A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Morgan City Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Sabine Pass to Morgan City Louisiana * Ocean Springs to the Alabama/Florida border * Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Mobile Bay A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Intracoastal City Louisiana to west of Morgan City * Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama border * Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Mississippi/Alabama border to the Alabama/Florida border A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Marco was located near latitude 24.2 North, longitude 87.1 West. Marco is moving toward the north-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). Marco is forecast to continue moving north-northwestward across the central Gulf of Mexico today and will approach southeastern Louisiana on Monday. A gradual turn toward the west with a decrease in forward speed is expected after Marco moves inland on Monday and on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is anticipated and Marco is forecast to become a hurricane later today and be at hurricane strength when it approaches the northern Gulf Coast on Monday. Rapid weakening is expected after Marco moves inland. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 994 mb (29.36 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Sabine Pass to Morgan City LA...2-4 ft Morgan City LA to Ocean Springs MS including Lake Borgne...4-6 ft Ocean Springs MS to the AL/FL Border including Mobile Bay...2-4 ft Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...2-4 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area by midday Monday, with tropical storm conditions possible by early Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area on Monday, and hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch areas late Monday. RAINFALL: Marco is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches across the Central U.S. Gulf coast through Tuesday. This rainfall may result in isolated areas of flash and urban flooding along the Central U.S. Gulf Coast. SURF: Swells generated by Marco are likely to affect portions of the northern Gulf Coast later today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. TORNADOES: An isolated tornado will be possible early Monday morning near the southeast Louisiana coast. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Latto
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