je.st
news
Tag: tropical storm
Summary for Tropical Storm Marco (AT4/AL142020)
2020-08-24 05:05:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND MARCO HAS WEAKENED... ...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... As of 10:00 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 the center of Marco was located near 26.8, -87.6 with movement NNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
Tags: summary
marco
storm
tropical
Tropical Storm Marco Public Advisory Number 15
2020-08-24 05:05:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 240304 CCA TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Marco Advisory Number 15...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020 1000 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2020 Corrected Rainfall statement in Hazards section. ...HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND MARCO HAS WEAKENED... ...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.8N 87.6W ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Hurricane Watch from Intracoastal City to west of Morgan City has been canceled. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for.... * Morgan City Louisiana to Ocean Springs Mississippi * Lake Borgne A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Morgan City Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Sabine Pass to Morgan City Louisiana * Ocean Springs Mississippi to the Mississippi/Alabama border * Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama border * Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans * Cameron to west of Morgan City A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Mississippi/Alabama border to the Alabama/Florida border A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Marco was located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter plane near latitude 26.8 North, longitude 87.6 West. Marco is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A continued north-northwestward motion is possible tonight, but a turn toward the northwest is expected by Monday morning. Marco is forecast to approach the coast of Louisiana by Monday afternoon, and then turn westward and move near or over the coast through Tuesday. Data from the Hurricane Hunter plane indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Fluctuations in intensity are possible during the next 24 hours, but Marco is forecast to weaken rapidly by early Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the reconnaissance aircraft is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Morgan City LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...4-6 ft Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs MS including Lake Borgne...3-5 ft Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...2-4 ft Intracoastal City LA to Morgan City LA...2-4 ft Sabine Pass to Intracoastal City...1-3 ft Ocean Springs MS to the AL/FL Border including Mobile Bay...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are still possible within the hurricane warning area by midday Monday, with tropical storm conditions likely by midday Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area on Monday, and hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch areas late Monday. RAINFALL: Marco is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches across portions of the northeast and north-central Gulf coast through Tuesday. This rainfall may result in areas of flash, urban and small stream flooding along the area. SURF: Swells generated by Marco are likely to affect portions of the northern Gulf Coast for the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible across southeast Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle Monday and Monday night. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
Tags: number
public
marco
storm
Tropical Storm Marco Forecast Discussion Number 15
2020-08-24 04:56:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 240256 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Marco Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020 1000 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2020 Marco is feeling the effect of strong southwesterly shear. The center, as identified by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft, is displaced to the southwest edge of the convective canopy. That said, Marco has not quite fully decoupled yet and has moved well right of the previous forecast. Data from the plane indicates that Marco has weakened; the highest flight-level winds were only 58 kt with unflagged SFMR winds just above 50 kt. Marco's intensity has been lowered slightly to 60 kt, but this is probably generous. The intensity guidance remains maddeningly inconsistent. The most recent runs of the HWRF and HMON show that there is still a chance that Marco could reach the Gulf Coast as a hurricane, despite the shear. While this seems unlikely given the current structure of the cyclone, it also seems slightly premature to rule it out entirely. After all, the shear lessened enough to allow Marco to briefly strengthen after it was strongly sheared for a time last night. The rest of the guidance shows Marco weakening further as it approaches the coast, and this seems like a more likely solution. The NHC forecast just holds Marco at 60 kt for the next 24 h, but its certainly possible it could already be weaker than that. Rapid weakening is likely by 36 h if it hasn't happened sooner and Marco is forecast to become a remnant low by early Wednesday. Marco's track is tied entirely to its intensity and structure. Once Marco becomes fully decoupled it will slow and turn westward. It is not out of the question that this could happen before Marco reaches the coast and the system never makes landfall. However, as long as the strong southwesterly upper-level flow contributes to the steering, Marco will continue to move more northward to north-northwestward. Due to the recent northward movement of Marco's center, the NHC track forecast has been adjusted in that direction, but it is blended to the previous forecast by about 36 h and onward. Confidence in this forecast unfortunately remains low since the model spread remains usually high. It is worth noting that Marco is a small tropical cyclone. The large area of Tropical Storm and Hurricane watches and warnings along the northern Gulf Coast is a reflection of the unusually high uncertainty in the forecast, and it is unlikely that all of those regions will experience tropical-storm-force winds or life-threatening storm surge associated with Marco. However, impacts will likely occur in some portions of the watch/warning area beginning on Monday, and heavy rain is likely across most of the region during the next couple of days. Changes to the watches and warnings are likely on Monday and users should consult products from their local weather forecast office for more information about potential hazards in their area. Key Messages: 1. Strong winds, life-threatening storm surge, and heavy rainfall are expected from Marco along portions of the Gulf Coast beginning on Monday. Interests in these areas should follow any advice given by local government officials. 2. Tropical Storm Laura could bring additional storm surge, rainfall, and wind impacts to portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast by the middle of the week. This could result in a prolonged period of hazardous weather for areas that may also be affected by Marco. Interests there should monitor the progress of Marco and Laura and updates to the forecast during the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0300Z 26.8N 87.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 24/1200Z 28.0N 88.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 25/0000Z 29.0N 90.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 25/1200Z 29.6N 92.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 48H 26/0000Z 29.8N 93.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 60H 26/1200Z 29.7N 94.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 72H 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
Tags: number
discussion
marco
storm
Tropical Storm Laura Forecast Advisory Number 17
2020-08-24 04:55:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON AUG 24 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 240254 CCA TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM LAURA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132020 0300 UTC MON AUG 24 2020 CORRECTED TO REMOVE THE DRY TORTUGAS FROM THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE DRY TORTUGAS... FLORIDA. THE GOVERNMENT OF HAITI HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ALL OF HAITI. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN BRAC * CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...HOLGUIN...GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...GRANMA...CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...VILLA CLARA...CIENFUEGOS...MATANZAS...MAYABEQUE...LA HABANA...ARTEMISA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH * DRY TORTUGAS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * FLORIDA KEYS FROM CRAIG KEY TO KEY WEST THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 76.6W AT 24/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......120NE 120SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..360NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 76.6W AT 24/0300Z AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 75.7W FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 21.1N 79.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 22.5N 82.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 80SE 30SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 23.8N 85.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 80SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 25.3N 88.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 27.1N 90.9W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 29.2N 92.4W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 50SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 34.2N 90.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 37.4N 83.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.1N 76.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 24/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Tags: number
storm
laura
advisory
Tropical Storm Marco Graphics
2020-08-24 04:54:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 24 Aug 2020 02:54:38 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 24 Aug 2020 03:31:58 GMT
Tags: graphics
marco
storm
tropical
Sites : [852] [853] [854] [855] [856] [857] [858] [859] [860] [861] [862] [863] [864] [865] [866] [867] [868] [869] [870] [871] next »