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Subtropical Storm FAY Forecast Discussion Number 4
2014-10-11 04:31:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST FRI OCT 10 2014 000 WTNT42 KNHC 110231 TCDAT2 SUBTROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072014 1100 PM AST FRI OCT 10 2014 The cloud pattern of Fay features an area of deep convection displaced northwest of the low-level center by about 30 kt of southerly shear and a fractured convective band well east of the center. The initial intensity remains 50 kt based on the earlier aircraft data. Overall, the cloud pattern looks more tropical than it did a few hours ago, and Fay will likely transition to a tropical cyclone in the next 6 to 12 hours. Given that the shear is expected to continue, only limited intensification is shown in the next 12 to 24 hours, followed by slow weakening until the cyclone is absorbed after 48 hours. The new NHC intensity forecast is close to the latest IVCN multi-model consensus. The initial motion estimate is 345/11, as Fay continues to move around the western periphery of a mid-level ridge. There is no change to the track forecast philosophy, with Fay expected to turn northward in the next 12 to 24 hours and then recurve into the mid-latitude westerlies. The new NHC track forecast is a little to the right of the previous one through 24 hours based on the initial position and motion, and is largely an update of the previous forecast after that time. The NHC forecast is close to the latest dynamical model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0300Z 25.9N 64.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 11/1200Z 27.7N 64.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 12/0000Z 30.8N 64.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 12/1200Z 33.9N 61.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 13/0000Z 36.6N 56.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 14/0000Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Subtropical Storm FAY Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2014-10-11 04:31:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT OCT 11 2014 000 FONT12 KNHC 110231 PWSAT2 SUBTROPICAL STORM FAY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072014 0300 UTC SAT OCT 11 2014 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 2 36(38) 9(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) BERMUDA 50 X 6( 6) 7(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) BERMUDA 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
Subtropical Storm FAY Forecast Discussion Number 3
2014-10-11 01:38:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 730 PM AST FRI OCT 10 2014 000 WTNT42 KNHC 102338 TCDAT2 SUBTROPICAL STORM FAY SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072014 730 PM AST FRI OCT 10 2014 As the Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft exited through an area of very deep convection in the northwestern quadrant of Fay, they found a peak 5,000 ft flight-level wind of 75 kt and peak SFMR winds in the 50-55 kt range. Based on these data, this special advisory is being issued to increase the initial intensity to 50 kt, which could be a bit conservative. The aircraft also found that the central pressure had fallen to 1000 mb on their last pass through the broad center. The intensity forecast has been adjusted upward through 36 hours, and shows the possibility for some additional strengthening before gradual weakening begins after 24 hours. Aircraft fixes and satellite imagery suggest that the initial motion is 340/10, a bit to the right of the previous track. Based on this, the 12-hour forecast position has been nudged a little to the east, but no changes were made to the NHC track at 24 hours and beyond. Note that this special advisory takes the place of the scheduled 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...intermediate advisory. The next advisory issued on Fay will be the full advisory package at 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/2330Z 25.2N 64.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 11/0600Z 26.0N 64.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 11/1800Z 28.5N 65.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 12/0600Z 31.7N 63.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 12/1800Z 33.7N 60.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 13/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Subtropical Storm FAY Graphics
2014-10-11 01:33:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 10 Oct 2014 23:31:38 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 10 Oct 2014 23:31:44 GMT
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Summary for Subtropical Storm FAY (AT2/AL072014)
2014-10-11 01:32:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS FAY STRONGER... As of 7:30 PM AST Fri Oct 10 the center of FAY was located near 25.2, -64.2 with movement NNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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