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Subtropical Storm FAY Public Advisory Number 3
2014-10-11 01:32:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 730 PM AST FRI OCT 10 2014 000 WTNT32 KNHC 102332 TCPAT2 BULLETIN SUBTROPICAL STORM FAY SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072014 730 PM AST FRI OCT 10 2014 ...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS FAY STRONGER... SUMMARY OF 730 PM AST...2330 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.2N 64.2W ABOUT 490 MI...790 KM S OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 730 PM AST...2330 UTC...THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.2 WEST. THE STORM IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY. DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST TONIGHT. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WINDS OF 40 MPH EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY THE AIRCRAFT WAS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON BERMUDA BY LATE SATURDAY OR ON SUNDAY. RAINFALL...FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS BERMUDA. SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY FAY WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH-FACING SHORES OF BERMUDA BY SATURDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Subtropical Storm FAY Forecast Advisory Number 3
2014-10-11 01:30:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2330 UTC FRI OCT 10 2014 000 WTNT22 KNHC 102330 TCMAT2 SUBTROPICAL STORM FAY SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072014 2330 UTC FRI OCT 10 2014 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 HOURS. SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.2N 64.2W AT 10/2330Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 80NW. 34 KT.......100NE 0SE 30SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.2N 64.2W AT 10/2330Z AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.3N 64.0W FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 26.0N 64.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 80NW. 34 KT...100NE 0SE 30SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 28.5N 65.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 70NW. 34 KT...120NE 0SE 0SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 31.7N 63.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 33.7N 60.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 0SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.2N 64.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Subtropical Storm FAY Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2014-10-11 01:30:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2330 UTC FRI OCT 10 2014 000 FONT12 KNHC 102330 PWSAT2 SUBTROPICAL STORM FAY SPECIAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072014 2330 UTC FRI OCT 10 2014 AT 2330Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X 9( 9) 45(54) 3(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
Subtropical Storm FAY Graphics
2014-10-10 23:08:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 10 Oct 2014 20:51:28 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 10 Oct 2014 21:04:45 GMT
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Subtropical Storm FAY Forecast Discussion Number 2
2014-10-10 22:58:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST FRI OCT 10 2014 000 WTNT42 KNHC 102058 TCDAT2 SUBTROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072014 500 PM AST FRI OCT 10 2014 Satellite imagery and data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the subtropical cyclone has become a little better organized since the previous advisory. Deep convection has gradually been developing closer to the low-level circulation center, and a maximum SFMR surface wind measured thus far by the aircraft has been 35 kt. Based on this information, plus a subtropical satellite classification of ST2.5/35 kt from TAFB, this system has been upgraded to Subtropical Storm Fay. The Hurricane Hunter aircraft will continue investigating Fay for the next hour or so. The initial motion estimate is 330/10 kt. Fay is expected to move steadily northwestward and then northward around the western periphery of a deep-layer subtropical ridge located along 29N-30N latitude for the next 24 hours. By 36 hours, the cyclone is expected to recurve toward the northeast and accelerate when it becomes embedded in the strong mid-latitude flow ahead of an approaching shortwave trough that is currently located near the U.S. east coast. The latest NHC model guidance has shifted somewhat to the west, especially the ECMWF model, but the models remain tightly clustered and in good agreement on the aforementioned track scenario, including absorption by a frontal system by 72 hours. The official track has been shifted to the left of the previous forecast and lies just to the west of and a little slower than the consensus track model TVCN. The large size of Fay, along with strong southeasterly to southerly vertical wind shear, should inhibit much in the way of intensification, despite the cyclone being over anomalously warm 29C sea-surface temperatures. If the recent trend in the development of inner-core convection continues, then Fay could transition into a tropical cyclone within the next 12 hours or so. However, this transition would have virtually no effect on the size of the tropical-storm-force wind field. The NHC intensity forecast closely follows a blend of the statistical-dynamical models SHIPS and LGEM. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/2100Z 24.7N 64.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 11/0600Z 26.0N 65.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 11/1800Z 28.5N 65.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 12/0600Z 31.7N 63.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 12/1800Z 33.7N 60.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 13/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM $$ Forecaster Stewart
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