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Subtropical Depression SEVEN Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2014-10-10 16:46:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI OCT 10 2014 000 FONT12 KNHC 101446 PWSAT2 SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072014 1500 UTC FRI OCT 10 2014 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Subtropical Depression SEVEN Forecast Advisory Number 1
2014-10-10 16:41:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI OCT 10 2014 000 WTNT22 KNHC 101441 TCMAT2 SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072014 1500 UTC FRI OCT 10 2014 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR BERMUDA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 63.7W AT 10/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 63.7W AT 10/1500Z AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 63.3W FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 25.1N 64.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...100NE 0SE 0SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 26.8N 65.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 0SE 0SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 29.4N 64.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 0SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 31.5N 62.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 0SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z...ABSORBED WITHIN FRONTAL ZONE REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.8N 63.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Subtropical Storm MELISSA Forecast Discussion Number 8
2013-11-20 09:36:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST WED NOV 20 2013 000 WTNT44 KNHC 200836 TCDAT4 SUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142013 500 AM AST WED NOV 20 2013 A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN PERSISTING NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER OF MELISSA SINCE ABOUT 0400 UTC. THIS SUGGESTS THAT MELISSA COULD BE NEARING THE EXPECTED TRANSITION FROM A SUBTROPICAL TO A TROPICAL STORM. NONETHELESS...THE STRENGTH OF THE CYCLONE HAS NOT CHANGED...BASED ON A SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB AND EARLIER ASCAT DATA. THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING...AS MELISSA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER PROGRESSIVELY COLDER WATER AND REMAIN IN AT LEAST MODERATE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THEREFORE...THE NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...FOLLOWING THE GFS AND ECMWF GUIDANCE. POST-TROPICAL TRANSITION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN 24 TO 36 HOURS...WHEN THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BE OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BELOW 20C. MELISSA IS ACCELERATING TO THE NORTHEAST...AND THE LATEST INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 055/20. A CONTINUED FAST NORTHEASTWARD TO EAST-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE MELISSA REMAINS EMBEDDED IN THE STRONG FLOW TO THE SOUTHEAST OF A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. DISSIPATION IS NOW PREDICTED TO OCCUR IN 4 DAYS...IN AGREEMENT WITH MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0900Z 34.8N 50.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 20/1800Z 36.8N 46.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 21/0600Z 39.3N 40.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 21/1800Z 41.4N 34.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 22/0600Z 43.0N 28.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 23/0600Z 45.0N 22.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Subtropical Storm MELISSA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2013-11-20 09:35:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED NOV 20 2013 000 FONT14 KNHC 200835 PWSAT4 SUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142013 0900 UTC WED NOV 20 2013 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 2 3 5 10 NA NA TROP DEPRESSION 4 13 17 19 25 NA NA TROPICAL STORM 93 79 71 66 58 NA NA HURRICANE 2 6 9 10 8 NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 2 6 8 9 7 NA NA HUR CAT 2 X 1 1 1 1 NA NA HUR CAT 3 X X X X X NA NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X X NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X X NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 45KT 45KT 45KT 45KT 40KT NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) 16(16) 9(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) PONTA DELGADA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Summary for Subtropical Storm MELISSA (AT4/AL142013)
2013-11-20 09:35:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...MELISSA ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD... As of 5:00 AM AST Wed Nov 20 the center of MELISSA was located near 34.8, -50.2 with movement NE at 23 mph. The minimum central pressure was 988 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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