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Summary for Subtropical Storm Ernesto (AT5/AL052018)

2018-08-15 16:51:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO SUBTROPICAL STORM ERNESTO... As of 11:00 AM AST Wed Aug 15 the center of Ernesto was located near 38.1, -46.0 with movement N at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

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Subtropical Storm Ernesto Public Advisory Number 2

2018-08-15 16:51:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST Wed Aug 15 2018 591 WTNT35 KNHC 151451 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Subtropical Storm Ernesto Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052018 1100 AM AST Wed Aug 15 2018 ...SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO SUBTROPICAL STORM ERNESTO... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...38.1N 46.0W ABOUT 695 MI...1120 KM SE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Ernesto was located near latitude 38.1 North, longitude 46.0 West. The storm is moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the north-northeast is expected later today, and a faster northeastward motion is expected by late Thursday and should continue through early Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible during the next 24 hours. The system is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone Thursday night or early Friday. Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown

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Subtropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Advisory Number 2

2018-08-15 16:51:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC WED AUG 15 2018 169 WTNT25 KNHC 151451 TCMAT5 SUBTROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052018 1500 UTC WED AUG 15 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.1N 46.0W AT 15/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......120NE 140SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.1N 46.0W AT 15/1500Z AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.8N 45.9W FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 39.3N 45.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 140SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 41.3N 43.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 140SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 43.6N 40.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 140SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 46.4N 35.2W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 150SE 120SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 52.3N 21.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 150SE 150SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z...MERGED WITH LARGER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.1N 46.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Subtropical Depression Five Forecast Discussion Number 1

2018-08-15 10:39:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Aug 15 2018 684 WTNT45 KNHC 150839 TCDAT5 Subtropical Depression Five Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052018 500 AM AST Wed Aug 15 2018 The low pressure system that the National Hurricane Center has been monitoring over the central Atlantic Ocean has developed sufficently organized deep convection and a well-defined center. Since the system has a large radius of maximum wind and is co-located with an upper-level low, it is being classified as a subtropical depression. The initial intensity is set to a possibly conservative 30 kt based on an earlier ASCAT pass. This value is slightly below the latest satellite intensity estimate from TAFB. It is interesting to note that so far this hurricane season, four of the five systems have been a subtropical cyclone at some point in their lifetimes. Slow strengthening is possible during the next 24 hours or so while the system remains over warm SSTs and in fairly low wind shear conditions. After that time, sharply colder waters, drier air, and a significant increase in wind shear should cause extratropical transition in about 48 hours, or sooner, and a gradual weakening. The models show the post-tropical system merging with a frontal zone in 3 to 4 days. The subtropical depression is moving slowly northward at about 4 kt. A north to north-northeastward motion is expected today as the system moves on the western periphery of a mid-level ridge. A mid- to upper-level trough currently over the northeastern U.S. is anticipated to approach the cyclone, and that feature should cause the system to accelerate northeastward on Thursday and Friday. The models are in good agreement, and the NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0900Z 37.6N 45.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 15/1800Z 38.5N 45.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 16/0600Z 40.2N 44.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 16/1800Z 42.5N 41.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 17/0600Z 45.1N 37.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 18/0600Z 51.0N 24.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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