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Subtropical Storm Ernesto Public Advisory Number 5
2018-08-16 10:32:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Thu Aug 16 2018 123 WTNT35 KNHC 160832 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Subtropical Storm Ernesto Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052018 500 AM AST Thu Aug 16 2018 ...ERNESTO CHANGES LITTLE IN STRENGTH... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL IN A DAY OR SO... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...40.8N 44.1W ABOUT 605 MI...975 KM SE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Ernesto was located near latitude 40.8 North, longitude 44.1 West. The storm is moving toward the north-northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h). A significantly faster northeastward motion is expected during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next couple of days. Ernesto is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone Thursday night or early Friday, and merge with a frontal zone near Ireland and the United Kingdom on Saturday. Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Subtropical Storm Ernesto Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2018-08-16 10:32:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU AUG 16 2018 130 FONT15 KNHC 160832 PWSAT5 SUBTROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052018 0900 UTC THU AUG 16 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 40.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 44.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Subtropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Advisory Number 5
2018-08-16 10:31:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU AUG 16 2018 796 WTNT25 KNHC 160831 TCMAT5 SUBTROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052018 0900 UTC THU AUG 16 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.8N 44.1W AT 16/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......120NE 140SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 160SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.8N 44.1W AT 16/0900Z AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 40.2N 44.7W FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 42.4N 41.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...110NE 140SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 45.0N 37.7W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 140SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 47.8N 31.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 140SE 100SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 50.6N 23.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 140SE 120SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 40.8N 44.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Subtropical Storm Ernesto Graphics
2018-08-16 04:35:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 16 Aug 2018 02:35:29 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 16 Aug 2018 03:22:06 GMT
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Subtropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Discussion Number 4
2018-08-16 04:34:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Aug 15 2018 844 WTNT45 KNHC 160234 TCDAT5 Subtropical Storm Ernesto Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052018 1100 PM AST Wed Aug 15 2018 Although inner-core convection has increased since the previous advisory, outer banding features have become more fragmented and the overall cloud pattern has become elongated north-to-south. There are also no signs of any upper-level anticyclonic outflow, an indication that Ernesto is still a subtropical cyclone. The initial intensity is being maintained at 35 kt based on a 2328Z ASCAT pass that showed peak winds of 32 kt in the southeastern quadrant, along with a radius of maximum winds of 70-80 nmi. This intensity is consistent with a ST2.5/35 kt classification from TAFB. The initial motion is now north-northeastward or 025/09 kt. Ernesto has rounded the subtropical ridge axis to its south, and the cyclone should gradually get caught up in the mid-latitude westerlies and turn northeastward during the next 12 hours or so. A northeastward motion along with a steadily increasing forward speed is expected through Friday. The track guidance is tightly packed around the previous advisory track, so the new NHC forecast track is essentially just an extension of the previous advisory, and lies near the track consensus models HCCA and TVCN. On the forecast track, Ernesto is expected to approach Ireland as an extratropical gale area on Saturday. Ernesto is expected to remain over sea-surface temperatures (SST) of 25 deg C or warmer for the next 18-24 hours, along with low vertical shear conditions of less than 10 kt. These conditions should allow for some slight strengthening during that short time window. By 36 hours, Ernesto is forecast to be moving over SSTs of 20 deg C and colder and into a more stable airmass, resulting in a degeneration of the inner-core convection. As a result, Ernesto is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone by 36 hours, and become an extratropical gale area after merging with a frontal zone near Ireland and the United Kingdom in about 3 days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0300Z 39.7N 45.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 16/1200Z 41.3N 43.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 17/0000Z 43.7N 40.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 17/1200Z 46.3N 34.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 18/0000Z 49.0N 27.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 19/0000Z 54.0N 12.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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