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Subtropical Storm Joyce Graphics
2018-09-12 22:42:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 12 Sep 2018 20:42:04 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 12 Sep 2018 20:42:04 GMT
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Subtropical Storm Joyce Forecast Discussion Number 1
2018-09-12 22:40:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Sep 12 2018 973 WTNT45 KNHC 122040 TCDAT5 Subtropical Storm Joyce Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102018 500 PM AST Wed Sep 12 2018 The strong low pressure system which the NHC has been monitoring in the north Atlantic for a couple of days has developed a cyclonically curved band of deep convection near the center, and scatterometer data indicate that the winds are near 40 kt. Since the system is still vertically stacked with an upper-low, it is then classified as a subtropical cyclone at this time. However, the cyclone is gaining organization while it is acquiring tropical characteristics. The NHC forecast calls for Joyce to transform into a tropical system in about 12 to 24 hours. Since the ocean is warm, some slight strengthening is possible during the next 3 days. After that time, Joyce will be over cooler waters and should then be absorbed by a larger extratropical low. Joyce has been moving southwestward or 225 degrees at 5 kt, steered by the northerly flow around the subtropical high which has been steering Florence and to west of the mid-latitude trough which is forcing Helene to recurve. In a couple of days, global models indicate that the steering pattern will change as the trough amplifies, and Joyce should then turn toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/2100Z 34.3N 41.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 13/0600Z 33.7N 42.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL STORM 24H 13/1800Z 33.0N 43.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 14/0600Z 32.5N 43.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 14/1800Z 32.5N 43.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 15/1800Z 34.0N 41.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 16/1800Z 37.0N 35.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 17/1800Z...ABSORBED $$ Forecaster Avila
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Subtropical Storm Joyce Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2018-09-12 22:40:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 12 2018 911 FONT15 KNHC 122040 PWSAT5 SUBTROPICAL STORM JOYCE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102018 2100 UTC WED SEP 12 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM JOYCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 41.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER AVILA
Summary for Subtropical Storm Joyce (AT5/AL102018)
2018-09-12 22:39:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...JOYCE FORMS IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC... As of 5:00 PM AST Wed Sep 12 the center of Joyce was located near 34.3, -41.9 with movement SW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Subtropical Storm Joyce Public Advisory Number 1
2018-09-12 22:39:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Sep 12 2018 830 WTNT35 KNHC 122039 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Subtropical Storm Joyce Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102018 500 PM AST Wed Sep 12 2018 ...JOYCE FORMS IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.3N 41.9W ABOUT 870 MI...1395 KM WSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 220 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of newly formed Subtropical Storm Joyce was located near latitude 34.3 North, longitude 41.9 West. The storm is moving toward the southwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this slow motion should continue during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Joyce is forecast to transform into a tropical storm by Thursday and strengthen some. Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Avila
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