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Subtropical Storm Joyce Forecast Advisory Number 1
2018-09-12 22:39:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 12 2018 274 WTNT25 KNHC 122039 TCMAT5 SUBTROPICAL STORM JOYCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102018 2100 UTC WED SEP 12 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.3N 41.9W AT 12/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 220 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..420NE 90SE 300SW 360NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.3N 41.9W AT 12/2100Z AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.5N 41.7W FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 33.7N 42.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 33.0N 43.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 32.5N 43.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 32.5N 43.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 34.0N 41.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 37.0N 35.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.3N 41.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Subtropical Storm Ernesto Graphics
2018-08-16 16:53:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 16 Aug 2018 14:53:21 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 16 Aug 2018 15:22:07 GMT
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Subtropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Discussion Number 6
2018-08-16 16:52:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Aug 16 2018 219 WTNT45 KNHC 161452 TCDAT5 Subtropical Storm Ernesto Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052018 1100 AM AST Thu Aug 16 2018 Convection developed closer to the center of Ernesto early this morning, suggesting that the system was attempting to make the transition to a tropical cyclone, but that area of convection has weakened within the past couple of hours. Patches of deep convection continue over the outer portion of the circulation, and a very recent ASCAT overpass continues to show a rather large radius of maximum winds, indicating that Ernesto remains a subtropical cyclone. The ASCAT data showed a large area of 35-40 kt winds over the eastern and southeastern portions of the circulation, so the initial wind speed has been increased to 40 kt. Ernesto has likely reached its peak intensity since it will be moving over much cooler SSTs later today, and the cyclone is expected to lose its subtropical characteristics late tonight or early Friday. The post-tropical cyclone should be able to maintain its intensity due in part to its expected fast forward speed over the North Atlantic. The global models indicate that the system will merge with a frontal zone as it approaches Ireland and the United Kingdom late Saturday. Ernesto has turned northeastward and is beginning to accelerate, and is now moving at around 14 kt. The cyclone should be fully embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies within the next 24 hours, and a significantly faster northeastward to east-northeastward motion is expected over the next couple of days. The track guidance continues to be in good agreement, and the new NHC official forecast is essentially an update of the previous advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/1500Z 42.0N 43.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 17/0000Z 43.9N 40.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 17/1200Z 46.7N 35.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 18/0000Z 49.5N 28.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 18/1200Z 52.0N 19.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Subtropical Storm Ernesto Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2018-08-16 16:52:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU AUG 16 2018 087 FONT15 KNHC 161452 PWSAT5 SUBTROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052018 1500 UTC THU AUG 16 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 42.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 43.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Summary for Subtropical Storm Ernesto (AT5/AL052018)
2018-08-16 16:51:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ERNESTO HEADING FOR COOLER WATERS... As of 11:00 AM AST Thu Aug 16 the center of Ernesto was located near 42.0, -43.2 with movement NE at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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