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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

2019-10-14 19:46:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

000 ABNT20 KNHC 141746 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Mon Oct 14 2019 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on Post-Tropical Cyclone Storm Melissa, located several hundred miles south-southeast of Newfoundland, Canada. A large low pressure system located over the far eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean less than 300 miles southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands is moving slowly west-northwestward to northwestward. Satellite imagery and surface wind data indicate that low has become better defined since yesterday, and shower and thunderstorm activity is showing increasing signs of organization. If this recent development trend continues, then a tropical depression or a tropical storm storm is likely to form later tonight or early Tuesday while the low moves generally northwestward toward the Cabo Verde Islands. Strong upper-level winds should prevent any further development by midweek. This system is forecast to bring locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds to portions of the Cabo Verde Islands tonight through Wednesday morning, and interests there should monitor the progress of this system. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the southwestern Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Honduras, and parts of Central America are associated with a broad area of low pressure located inland over northwestern Honduras. This system will move west-northwestward across southern Belize, northern Guatemala, and southeastern Mexico during the next couple of days, preventing tropical cyclone formation during that time. By Wednesday, however, the low is forecast to emerge over the southern Bay of Campeche where conditions could become a little more conducive for some further organization to occur. Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce heavy rains over a large portion of Central America during the next few days, which could cause flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous areas. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. A tropical wave accompanied by a small low pressure system located over the central tropical Atlantic is producing a large area of cloudiness and thunderstorms. Although thunderstorm activity has continued to increase and become a little better organized since yesterday, upper-level winds are expected to be only marginally conducive for significant development of this system over the next day or two while it moves westward at around 15 mph. By late Wednesday as the wave approaches the Windward Islands, upper-level winds are forecast to become quite hostile for any further development. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Stewart

Tags: weather atlantic outlook tropical

 

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

2019-10-14 13:50:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

000 ABNT20 KNHC 141150 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Mon Oct 14 2019 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Melissa, located several hundred miles south of Newfoundland, Canada. A large low pressure system located over the far eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean about 300 miles southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands is moving slowly west-northwestward. Showers and thunderstorms are showing some signs of organization, and environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for a tropical depression to form during the next day or so while the disturbance moves west-northwestward to northwestward near the Cabo Verde Islands. Strong upper-level winds should prevent any further development by midweek. This system is forecast to bring locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds to portions of the Cabo Verde Islands later today through Tuesday, and interests there should monitor the progress of this system. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the southwestern Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Honduras, and parts of Central America are associated with a broad area of low pressure located inland over north-central Honduras. This system is expected to move west-northwestward across Honduras, southern Belize, and northern Guatemala, which should prevent tropical cyclone formation for the next couple of days. By Wednesday, however, the low is forecast to emerge over the southern Bay of Campeche where conditions could become a little more conducive for some organization to occur. Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce heavy rains over portions of Central America during the next few days, which could cause flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous areas. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. A tropical wave located over the central tropical Atlantic is producing disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms. While thunderstorm activity has increased since yesterday, upper-level winds are not particularly conducive for significant development of this system over the next couple of days while it moves westward at around 15 mph. By Wednesday, as the wave approaches the Windward Islands, upper-level winds are forecast to become quite hostile for any further development. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. $$ Forecaster Stewart

Tags: weather atlantic outlook tropical

 
 

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

2019-10-14 07:44:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

000 ABNT20 KNHC 140544 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Mon Oct 14 2019 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Melissa, located several hundred miles south of Newfoundland, Canada. A broad area of low pressure is located over the far eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean just west of the west coast of Africa with disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next day or so while the disturbance moves west-northwestward to northwestward near or northeast of the Cabo Verde Islands. Strong upper-level winds should prevent any further development by midweek. This system is forecast to bring locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds to portions of the Cabo Verde Islands later today through Tuesday, and interests there should monitor the progress of this system. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the southwestern Caribbean Sea and parts of Central America are associated with a broad area of low pressure over eastern Honduras. This system is forecast to continue moving west-northwestward across northern Honduras, southern Belize, and northern Guatemala, which should prevent tropical cyclone formation for the next couple of days. By Wednesday, however, the low is forecast to emerge over the southern Bay of Campeche where conditions could become a little more conducive for some organization to occur. Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce heavy rains over portions of Central America during the next few days, which could cause flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous areas. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. A tropical wave located over the central tropical Atlantic is producing disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms. While thunderstorm activity has increased since yesterday, upper-level winds are not particularly conducive for significant development of this system over the next couple of days while it moves westward at around 15 mph. By Wednesday, as the wave approaches the Windward Islands, upper-level winds are forecast to become quite hostile for any further development. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. $$ Forecaster Blake

Tags: weather atlantic outlook tropical

 

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

2019-10-14 01:43:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

510 ABNT20 KNHC 132343 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Sun Oct 13 2019 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Melissa, located about 400 miles southeast of Nova Scotia, Canada. A strong tropical wave, accompanied by a broad area of low pressure, is located over the far eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean just west of the west coast of Africa. Although showers and thunderstorms associated with the system decreased somewhat earlier this evening, satellite imagery indicates that they are beginning to increase once again. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next couple of days while the disturbance moves west-northwestward to northwestward over or just east of the Cabo Verde Islands. Strong upper-level winds should prevent any further development by midweek. Regardless of development, this system is likely to bring locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds to portions of the Cabo Verde Islands on Monday and Tuesday. Interests in and around the Cabo Verde Islands should monitor the progress of this system. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. Disorganized showers and thunderstorm over the southwestern Caribbean Sea and portions of Central America are associated with a broad area of low pressure over eastern Honduras. This system is forecast to continue moving west-northwestward across northern Honduras, southern Belize, and northern Guatemala, which is likely to inhibit tropical cyclone formation for the next couple of days due to land interaction. By Wednesday, however, the disturbance is forecast to emerge over the southern Bay of Campeche where conditions could become a little more conducive for some organization to occur. Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce heavy rains over portions of Central America during the next few days, which could cause flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous areas. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. A tropical wave located over the central tropical Atlantic is producing disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms. Upper-level winds are not particularly conducive, and any development of this system over the next few days should be slow to occur while it moves westward at around 15 mph. By late Wednesday as the disturbance approaches the southern Lesser Antilles, upper-level winds are forecast to become quite hostile for any significant development to occur. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Brown

Tags: weather atlantic outlook tropical

 

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

2019-10-13 19:51:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

000 ABNT20 KNHC 131751 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Sun Oct 13 2019 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Melissa, located about 400 miles south-southeast of Nova Scotia, Canada. A vigorous tropical wave, accompanied by a well-defined low pressure system, has emerged over the far eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean just west of the coast of Guinea-Bissau. Showers and thunderstorms are beginning to show signs of organization, and environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for the development of a tropical depression during the next few days while the disturbance moves west-northwestward to northwestward over or just east of the Cabo Verde Islands. Strong upper-level winds should prevent any significant development by midweek. Interests in and around the Cabo Verde Islands should monitor the progress of this system. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. A broad area of low pressure located along the coast of northeastern Nicaragua is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms over most of the southwestern Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Honduras, and much of Central America. This system is forecast to continue moving west-northwestward across northern Nicaragua, northern Honduras, southern Belize, and northern Guatemala, which will inhibit tropical cyclone formation for the next couple of days due to land interaction. By Wednesday, however, the disturbance is forecast to emerge over the southern Bay of Campeche where conditions could become a little more conducive for some organization to occur. Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce heavy rains over portions of Central America during the next few days, which could cause flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous areas. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. A tropical wave located over the central tropical Atlantic is producing disorganized thunderstorm activity and strong gusty winds to near gale force in the northern portion of the wave. Upper-level winds are expected to be only marginally conducive for development to occur during the next few days while the system moves westward at around 15 mph. By late Wednesday as the disturbance approaches the southern Lesser Antilles, upper-level winds are forecast to become quite hostile for any significant development to occur. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Stewart

Tags: weather atlantic outlook tropical

 

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