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Hurricane MATTHEW Public Advisory Number 44A
2016-10-09 07:58:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 AM EDT SUN OCT 09 2016 000 WTNT34 KNHC 090558 TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE MATTHEW INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 44A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 200 AM EDT SUN OCT 09 2016 ...STRONG WINDS OCCURRING OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AS MATTHEW MOVES NORTHEASTWARD JUST OFFSHORE OF THE OUTER BANKS... ...RECORD-BREAKING FLOODING CONTINUES OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.8N 75.8W ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM SSW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM E OF MOREHEAD CITY NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...27 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Little River Inlet to Surf City A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * North of Surf City to Duck * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of Surf City to Duck * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 12 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Matthew was located by NOAA Doppler weather radars and an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 34.8 North, longitude 75.8 West. Matthew is moving toward the northeast near 16 mph (27 km/h). This motion is expected to continue early this morning, followed by a turn toward the east-northeast by this afternoon. An eastward motion is expected by tonight and Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Matthew should move near or just south of the coast of North Carolina this morning and east of the North Carolina coast by this afternoon. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next several hours, although Matthew should become a post-tropical cyclone later this morning. Weakening is expected by this afternoon and Monday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) mainly to the southwest of the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km). A wind gust to 69 mph (111 km/h) was recently reported at Elizabeth City, North Carolina, and a wind gust to 59 mph (94 km/h) was reported at Morehead City, North Carolina, during the past hour. The estimated minimum central pressure based on a combination of aircraft data and surface observations is 983 mb (29.03 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are expected to continue over the hurricane warning area this morning and then subside by this afternoon. Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch and Tropical Storm Warning area in North Carolina later this morning, with tropical storm conditions continuing well inland for the next few hours. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge, the tide, and large and destructive waves will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Surf City to Duck, North Carolina, including portions of the Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds...3 to 5 ft Along the Georgia and South Carolina coasts southwest of Matthew's center, inundation caused by Matthew's storm surge will slowly recede today. The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water rises to occur well in advance of and well away from the track of the center. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. There is a danger of life-threatening inundation during the next 36 hours along the coast from Surf City to Duck, North Carolina, including portions of the Pamlico Sound. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the Prototype National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. The Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic is a depiction of areas that would qualify for inclusion under a storm surge watch or warning currently under development by the National Weather Service and planned for operational use in 2017. The Prototype Graphic is available at hurricanes.gov. RAINFALL: Matthew is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 8 to 12 inches from northeast South Carolina into northeast North Carolina and southeast Virginia, with possible isolated totals of 20 inches possible. This rainfall is producing record-breaking flooding over portions of eastern North Carolina, and it may result in life-threatening flooding and flash flooding elsewhere across the region. SURF: Swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect much of the coast of the southeastern United States through early next week. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Hurricane MATTHEW Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map
2016-10-09 05:41:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Sun, 09 Oct 2016 03:41:42 GMT
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Hurricane MATTHEW Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics
2016-10-09 05:15:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Sun, 09 Oct 2016 03:15:15 GMT
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Hurricane MATTHEW Graphics
2016-10-09 05:10:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 09 Oct 2016 02:49:39 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 09 Oct 2016 03:06:38 GMT
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Hurricane MATTHEW Forecast Discussion Number 44
2016-10-09 04:49:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT SAT OCT 08 2016 000 WTNT44 KNHC 090249 TCDAT4 HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 44 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 1100 PM EDT SAT OCT 08 2016 A combination of satellite imagery, aircraft data, and coastal surface and radar observations indicate that Matthew is undergoing extratropical transition, and there is barely enough convection near the center to keep the system classified as a hurricane. However, SFMR data from an Air Force show hurricane-force winds to the southwest of the center, and based on this and the marginal convection Matthew remains a hurricane for this advisory. The cyclone is likely to become post-tropical in 12 hours or less and become an extratropical frontal low by 24 hours. As this happens though, a band of strong winds forming in the western semicircle near eastern North Carolina and the adjacent waters should keep the intensity near 65 kt for the next 12 hours or so. After that, Matthew should weaken and become absorbed within the frontal system between 48-72 hours. The new intensity forecast is mostly an update of the previous forecast. The initial motion is now 070/12. Matthew is embedded in the mid-latitude westerly flow and this steering pattern is forecast to move the system east-northeastward and then eastward until dissipation. The new forecast track is a little south of the previous track for the first 12 hours and a little north of it after that time. The forecast strength of the band of winds over the eastern North Carolina coastal area requires a northward extension of the hurricane watch. Strong winds in the Tidewater Region of Virginia are being handled by non-tropical wind warnings. KEY MESSAGES: 1. As Matthew's structure changes, the system's strongest winds are shifting to the west side of the circulation. The winds are expected to increase significantly over the coastal areas of eastern North Carolina during the next several hours, and during the next 12 hours there is the possibility of near-hurricane force winds over the North Carolina Outer Banks, as well as the Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds. There is also an increased threat of storm surge in these areas. Please see the Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic for a depiction of the areas at risk. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0300Z 34.1N 76.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 09/1200Z 34.6N 74.7W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 10/0000Z 34.4N 72.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 10/1200Z 33.8N 70.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 11/0000Z 33.0N 69.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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