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Hurricane MATTHEW Wind Speed Probabilities Number 43

2016-10-08 22:54:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT OCT 08 2016 000 FONT14 KNHC 082054 PWSAT4 HURRICANE MATTHEW WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 43 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 2100 UTC SAT OCT 08 2016 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MATTHEW WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE HENLOPEN 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) OCEAN CITY MD 34 2 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PAX RIVER NAS 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) WALLOPS CDA 34 3 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) RICHMOND VA 34 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) DANVILLE VA 34 3 X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NORFOLK NAS 34 6 3( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) NORFOLK VA 34 7 4(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) OCEANA NAS VA 34 9 4(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) ELIZABETH CTY 34 27 5(32) 1(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) GREENSBORO NC 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) RALEIGH NC 34 4 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ROCKY MT NC 34 11 2(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) CAPE HATTERAS 34 85 10(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) CAPE HATTERAS 50 12 17(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) CAPE HATTERAS 64 2 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) FAYETTEVILLE 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CHARLOTTE NC 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CHERRY PT NC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CHERRY PT NC 50 37 1(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) CHERRY PT NC 64 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NEW RIVER NC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) NEW RIVER NC 50 63 4(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) NEW RIVER NC 64 10 2(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) MOREHEAD CITY 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MOREHEAD CITY 50 62 2(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) MOREHEAD CITY 64 8 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) SURF CITY NC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SURF CITY NC 50 83 X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) SURF CITY NC 64 7 X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) WILMINGTON NC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) WILMINGTON NC 50 92 X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) WILMINGTON NC 64 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BALD HEAD ISL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BALD HEAD ISL 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BALD HEAD ISL 64 20 X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) FLORENCE SC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) COLUMBIA SC 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LITTLE RIVER 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) LITTLE RIVER 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) LITTLE RIVER 64 11 X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) MYRTLE BEACH 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MYRTLE BEACH 50 98 X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) GEORGETOWN SC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GEORGETOWN SC 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CHARLESTON SC 34 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) AUGUSTA GA 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAVANNAH GA 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER AVILA

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Hurricane MATTHEW Public Advisory Number 43

2016-10-08 22:53:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM EDT SAT OCT 08 2016 000 WTNT34 KNHC 082053 TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER 43 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 500 PM EDT SAT OCT 08 2016 ...TORRENTIAL RAINS SPREADING INLAND ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WHILE MATTHEW HUGS THE COAST... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.8N 78.2W ABOUT 15 MI...20 KM WSW OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM WSW OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Hurricane Warning from South Santee River southward has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * North of South of Santee River to Surf City A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * North of Surf City to Cape Lookout A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of Surf City to Duck * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Matthew was located near latitude 33.8 North, longitude 78.2 West. Matthew is moving toward the east-northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue tonight and early Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Matthew will be near the coast of southern North Carolina by this evening. Maximum sustained winds remain near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Although weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, Matthew is expected to remain near hurricane strength while the center is near the coasts of North Carolina. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) mainly over water to the east of the center. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km). Multiple private weather stations along the coast of South Carolina near Myrtle Beach have recently reported hurricane-force wind gusts. The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force aircraft data is 977 mb (28.85 inches). CORMP buoy 41024 near the center also reported a minimum pressure of 977.8 mb (28.87 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are expected to continue over the warning area this afternoon, and spread northward elsewhere within the warning area through tonight. Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch and Tropical Storm Warning area in North Carolina by tonight or Sunday morning, with tropical storm conditions expected later tonight. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge, the tide, and large and destructive waves will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Murrells Inlet, South Carolina, to Duck, North Carolina, including portions of the Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds...3 to 5 ft Along the Georgia and South Carolina coasts southwest of Matthew's center, inundation caused by Matthew's storm surge will slowly recede today. The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water rises to occur well in advance of and well away from the track of the center. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. There is a danger of life-threatening inundation during the next 36 hours along the coast from Murrells Inlet, South Carolina to Salvo, North Carolina including portions of the Pamlico Sound. There is the possibility of life-threatening inundation during the next 48 hours from Salvo to Duck, North Carolina including portions of the Albemarle Sound. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the Prototype National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. The Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic is a depiction of areas that would qualify for inclusion under a storm surge watch or warning currently under development by the National Weather Service and planned for operational use in 2017. The Prototype Graphic is available at hurricanes.gov. RAINFALL: Matthew is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 8 to 12 inches from northeast South Carolina into northeast North Carolina and southeast Virginia, with possible isolated totals of 20 inches possible. This rainfall may result in life-threatening flooding and flash flooding. TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes are possible this afternoon along the coast of North Carolina. SURF: Swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect much of the coast of the southeastern United States through early next week. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Avila

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Hurricane MATTHEW Forecast Advisory Number 43

2016-10-08 22:53:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT OCT 08 2016 000 WTNT24 KNHC 082053 TCMAT4 HURRICANE MATTHEW FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 43 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 2100 UTC SAT OCT 08 2016 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE HURRICANE WARNING FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTHWARD HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF SOUTH OF SANTEE RIVER TO SURF CITY A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF SURF CITY TO CAPE LOOKOUT A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF SURF CITY TO DUCK * PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.8N 78.2W AT 08/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 70 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 977 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 80SE 30SW 20NW. 34 KT.......160NE 140SE 70SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 240SE 60SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.8N 78.2W AT 08/2100Z AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.6N 79.0W FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 34.5N 76.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 20NW. 34 KT...170NE 140SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 34.5N 74.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 80SW 80NW. 34 KT...175NE 175SE 200SW 175NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 34.0N 71.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...175NE 175SE 210SW 210NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 33.0N 70.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...300NE 0SE 60SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z...ABSORBED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.8N 78.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0300Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA

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Hurricane MATTHEW Public Advisory Number 42A

2016-10-08 19:53:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 200 PM EDT SAT OCT 08 2016 000 WTNT34 KNHC 081752 TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE MATTHEW INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 42A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 200 PM EDT SAT OCT 08 2016 ...TORRENTIAL RAINS SPREADING INLAND ACROSS THE CAROLINAS... ...SERIOUS INLAND FLOODING EVENT UNFOLDING... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.7N 79.0W ABOUT 0 MI...0 KM OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM WSW OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.70 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Hurricane Warning south of Edisto Beach has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * North of Edisto Beach to Surf City A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * North of Surf City to Cape Lookout A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of Surf City to Duck * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Matthew was located near latitude 33.7 North, longitude 79.0 West. Matthew is moving toward the northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue today. On the forecast track, the center of Matthew will continue to move near or over the coast of South Carolina this afternoon, and be near the coast of southern North Carolina by this evening. Maximum sustained winds remain near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Although weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, Matthew is expected to remain near hurricane strength while the center is near the coasts of South Carolina and North Carolina. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km). A wind gust of 59 mph (94 km/h) was measured at a Myrtle Beach, and a gust to 69 mph (11 km/h) was observed at Charleston. The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force plane was 972 mb (28.70 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are expected to continue over the warning area in South Carolina this afternoon, and spread northward elsewhere within the warning area through tonight. Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch and Tropical Storm Warning area in North Carolina by tonight or Sunday morning, with tropical storm conditions expected later today. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge, the tide, and large and destructive waves will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Charleston, SC to Cape Fear, NC...5 to 7 ft Cape Fear to Duck, NC, including portions of the Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds...2 to 4 ft Along the Georgia and South Carolina coasts southwest of Matthew's center, inundation caused by Matthew's storm surge will slowly recede today. The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water rises to occur well in advance of and well away from the track of the center. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. There is a danger of life-threatening inundation during the next 36 hours along the coast from Altamaha Sound, Georgia, to Bogue Inlet, North Carolina as well as from Cape Lookout to Salvo, North Carolina including portions of the Pamlico Sound. There is the possibility of life-threatening inundation during the next 48 hours from Bogue Inlet to Cape Lookout, North Carolina and from Salvo to Duck, North Carolina including portions of the Albemarle Sound. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the Prototype National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. The Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic is a depiction of areas that would qualify for inclusion under a storm surge watch or warning currently under development by the National Weather Service and planned for operational use in 2017. The Prototype Graphic is available at hurricanes.gov. RAINFALL: Matthew is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 8 to 12 inches near and east of Interstate 95 in South Carolina and North Carolina, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches. Matthew is expected to produce 2 to 6 inches of rain over central South Carolina, western North Carolina, and southeastern Virginia. In all of these areas rainfall may result in life-threatening flooding and flash flooding. TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes are possible through early tonight along the coast of North Carolina. SURF: Swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect much of the coast of the southeastern United States through early next week. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Avila

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