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Hurricane MATTHEW Graphics
2016-10-08 05:09:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 08 Oct 2016 03:01:13 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 08 Oct 2016 03:05:37 GMT
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Hurricane MATTHEW Forecast Discussion Number 40
2016-10-08 05:00:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT FRI OCT 07 2016 000 WTNT44 KNHC 080259 TCDAT4 HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 40 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 1100 PM EDT FRI OCT 07 2016 Coastal Doppler radar data this evening indicate that Matthew is gradually becoming less organized. The eyewall has broken open with the remaining deep convection in a band just north of the center, and there is now little precipitation in the southeastern quadrant. A combination of radar winds and earlier aircraft data suggests that the intensity has decreased slightly since the last advisory, so the initial intensity is lowered to 90 kt. The initial motion is now 010/10 kt. During the next 36 hours, Matthew should turn more northeastward as it moves along the southern edge of a mid-latitude trough. The forecast track, which lies in the center of the track guidance envelope, has the center moving near the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina during the next 12-18 hours, then near the North Carolina coast from 18-36 hours. While this occurs, the cyclone is forecast to encounter strong vertical wind shear and to entrain dry air associated with an approaching frontal system. This should result in a steady weakening, and Matthew is now forecast to weaken to a tropical storm by 36 hours in agreement with the SHIPS model. It is possible that Matthew could merge with the frontal system at about 36 hours, although none of the available guidance currently forecasts the system to become an extratropical low. The track and intensity forecasts become very low confidence after 36 hours due to a large diversity of model solutions. The GFDL and HWRF forecast Matthew to turn northeastward and become an extratropical low near the Canadian Atlantic provinces. The UKMET moves Matthew eastward and eventually has it absorbed by Tropical Storm Nicole. The ECMWF, NAVGEM, and Canadian models show a southwestward turn, with the cyclone or it remnants near the Bahamas by 120 hours. The GFS is between the UKMET and ECMWF, showing Matthew moving far enough to the east to interact with Nicole, then turning southward. The new track forecast follows the previous advisory in showing a southward/southwestward turn similar to the ECMWF, but is east of the previous track due to an overall eastward trend in the guidance. Regarding the intensity, the GFS suggests that Matthew could decay to a remnant low by 120 hours, while the ECMWF suggests the system could still be a tropical cyclone. Either way, continued weakening is likely due to shear and dry air entrainment, and the official forecast calls for Matthew to weaken to a depression by 96 hours. Due to the degradation of the radar signature of Matthew, the hourly Tropical Cyclone Updates will no longer be issued. KEY MESSAGES: 1. We have been very fortunate that Matthew's strongest winds have remained a short distance offshore of the Florida and Georgia coasts thus far, but this should not be a reason to let down our guard. Only a small deviation to the left of the forecast track could bring these winds onshore. The western eyewall of Matthew, which contains hurricane-force winds, is expected to move over or very near the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina tonight and Friday. 2. Hurricane winds increase very rapidly with height, and occupants of high-rise buildings along the coast are at particular risk of strong winds. Winds at the top of a 30-story building will average one Saffir-Simpson category higher than the winds near the surface. 3. The water hazards remain, even if the core of Matthew remains offshore. These include the danger of life-threatening inundation from storm surge, as well as inland flooding from heavy rains from Florida to North Carolina. 4. The National Hurricane Center is issuing Potential Storm Surge Flooding Maps, and Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphics for Matthew. It is important to remember that the Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map does not represent a forecast of expected inundation, but rather depicts a reasonable worst-case scenario -- the amount of inundation that has a 10 percent chance of being exceeded. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0300Z 31.2N 80.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 08/1200Z 32.5N 79.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 09/0000Z 33.6N 77.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 09/1200Z 33.9N 75.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 10/0000Z 33.0N 74.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 11/0000Z 30.0N 73.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 12/0000Z 27.5N 74.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 13/0000Z 26.0N 75.5W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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Hurricane MATTHEW Wind Speed Probabilities Number 40
2016-10-08 04:59:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT OCT 08 2016 000 FONT14 KNHC 080258 PWSAT4 HURRICANE MATTHEW WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 40 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 0300 UTC SAT OCT 08 2016 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MATTHEW WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT OCEAN CITY MD 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) WALLOPS CDA 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) RICHMOND VA 34 X 4( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) DANVILLE VA 34 2 3( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) NORFOLK NAS 34 1 4( 5) 4( 9) 2(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) NORFOLK VA 34 1 4( 5) 5(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) OCEANA NAS VA 34 1 4( 5) 6(11) 2(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) ELIZABETH CTY 34 1 8( 9) 10(19) 4(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) GREENSBORO NC 34 3 2( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) RALEIGH NC 34 3 7(10) 3(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) ROCKY MT NC 34 3 11(14) 6(20) 1(21) 1(22) X(22) X(22) CAPE HATTERAS 34 2 20(22) 33(55) 5(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X 2( 2) 10(12) 3(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) FAYETTEVILLE 34 12 36(48) 3(51) X(51) 1(52) X(52) X(52) FAYETTEVILLE 50 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CHARLOTTE NC 34 3 3( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) CHERRY PT NC 34 5 52(57) 16(73) 2(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) CHERRY PT NC 50 X 10(10) 10(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) CHERRY PT NC 64 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NEW RIVER NC 34 4 52(56) 22(78) 2(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) NEW RIVER NC 50 X 11(11) 20(31) 1(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) NEW RIVER NC 64 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) MOREHEAD CITY 34 5 57(62) 17(79) 1(80) 1(81) X(81) X(81) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X 14(14) 17(31) 1(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) MOREHEAD CITY 64 X 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SURF CITY NC 34 19 63(82) 5(87) 1(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) SURF CITY NC 50 1 31(32) 9(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) SURF CITY NC 64 X 8( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) WILMINGTON NC 34 38 51(89) 2(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) WILMINGTON NC 50 1 39(40) 4(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) WILMINGTON NC 64 X 10(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) BALD HEAD ISL 34 62 33(95) 1(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) BALD HEAD ISL 50 3 59(62) 4(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) BALD HEAD ISL 64 X 28(28) 2(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) FLORENCE SC 34 63 16(79) X(79) 1(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) FLORENCE SC 50 2 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) COLUMBIA SC 34 28 5(33) 2(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) LITTLE RIVER 34 78 20(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) LITTLE RIVER 50 5 57(62) 1(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) LITTLE RIVER 64 1 24(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) MYRTLE BEACH 34 87 11(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) MYRTLE BEACH 50 14 53(67) 1(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) MYRTLE BEACH 64 2 28(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) GEORGETOWN SC 34 97 2(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GEORGETOWN SC 50 47 33(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) GEORGETOWN SC 64 11 35(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) CHARLESTON SC 34 99 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CHARLESTON SC 50 77 6(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) CHARLESTON SC 64 43 8(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 53 1(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) BEAUFORT MCAS 64 18 X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) ATLANTA GA 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) AUGUSTA GA 34 8 3(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) SAVANNAH GA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SAVANNAH GA 50 19 X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) SAVANNAH GA 64 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) KINGS BAY GA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) WAYCROSS GA 34 4 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MAYPORT NS FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) JACKSONVILLE 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GAINESVILLE FL 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) DAYTONA BEACH 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) THE VILLAGES 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ORLANDO FL 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) COCOA BEACH FL 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) PATRICK AFB 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) FT PIERCE FL 34 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Hurricane MATTHEW Public Advisory Number 40
2016-10-08 04:59:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT FRI OCT 07 2016 000 WTNT34 KNHC 080258 TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER 40 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 1100 PM EDT FRI OCT 07 2016 ...EYE OF HURRICANE MATTHEW CONTINUING NORTHWARD JUST OFF OF THE COAST OF GEORGIA... ...STORM SURGE FLOODING CONTINUES IN FLORIDA AND GEORGIA... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.2N 80.5W ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM SSE OF SAVANNAH GEORGIA ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SSW OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Hurricane Warning is changed to a Tropical Storm Warning from north of Flagler/Volusia county line to Fernandina Beach, Florida. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * North of Fernandina Beach to Surf City A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * North of Surf City to Cape Lookout A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of Surf City to Duck * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds * north of Flagler/Volusia county line to Fernandina Beach For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Matthew was located near latitude 31.2 North, longitude 80.5 West. Matthew is moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue tonight. A turn toward toward the north-northeast and then to the northeast is expected on Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Matthew will continue to move near or over the coast of Georgia through tonight, near or over the coast of South Carolina later tonight and Saturday, and near the coast of southern North Carolina on Saturday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Although weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, Matthew is expected to remain a hurricane while the center is near the coast. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km). NOAA buoy 41008 located off of the Georgia coast recently reported sustained winds of 54 mph (87 km/h) and a wind gust of 72 mph (115 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 948 mb (28.00 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are expected to continue over the warning area in Georgia tonight, and spread northward elsewhere within the warning area through Saturday. Tropical storm conditions in northeastern Florida should subside tonight. Residents in high-rise buildings should be aware that the winds at the top of a 30-story building will be, on average, about one Saffir-Simpson category higher than the winds near the surface. Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch and Tropical Storm Warning area in North Carolina by Saturday night or Sunday morning, with tropical storm conditions expected by Saturday morning. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge, the tide, and large and destructive waves will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida, to Edisto Beach, South Carolina, including portions of the St. Johns River...6 to 9 ft Edisto Beach, South Carolina to Cape Fear, North Carolina... 5 to 7 ft Cape Fear to Duck, North Carolina, including portions of the Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds...2 to 4 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water rises to occur well in advance of and well away from the track of the center. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. There is a danger of life-threatening inundation during the next 36 hours along the Florida northeast coast, the Georgia coast, the South Carolina coast, and the North Carolina coast from the Volusia/Brevard county line, Florida, to Cape Fear, North Carolina. There is the possibility of life-threatening inundation during the next 48 hours from north of Cape Fear to Duck, North Carolina. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the Prototype National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. The Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic is a depiction of areas that would qualify for inclusion under a storm surge watch or warning currently under development by the National Weather Service and planned for operational use in 2017. The Prototype Graphic is available at hurricanes.gov. RAINFALL: Matthew is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 8 to 12 inches over the Atlantic coast of the United States from eastern Georgia into eastern North Carolina and southeast Virginia...with possible isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches. This rainfall may result in life threatening flooding and flash flooding. Rains will continue to diminish across northern Florida tonight with additional amounts up to an inch possible. TORNADOES: A tornado or two remains possible near the South Carolina coast for the remainder of tonight. SURF: Swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect portions of the Bahamas and the east coast of Florida during the next few days, and will spread northward along the southeast U.S. coast through the weekend. These swells will likely cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Hurricane MATTHEW Forecast Advisory Number 40
2016-10-08 04:58:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT OCT 08 2016 000 WTNT24 KNHC 080258 TCMAT4 HURRICANE MATTHEW FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 40 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 0300 UTC SAT OCT 08 2016 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE HURRICANE WARNING IS CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE TO FERNANDINA BEACH...FLORIDA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF FERNANDINA BEACH TO SURF CITY A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF SURF CITY TO CAPE LOOKOUT A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF SURF CITY TO DUCK * PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS * NORTH OF FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE TO FERNANDINA BEACH HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.2N 80.5W AT 08/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 948 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 50SE 35SW 35NW. 50 KT....... 80NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT.......160NE 140SE 80SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 180SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.2N 80.5W AT 08/0300Z AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.7N 80.6W FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 32.5N 79.8W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 50NW. 34 KT...170NE 140SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 33.6N 77.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...180NE 160SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 33.9N 75.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...180NE 160SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 33.0N 74.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 120SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 30.0N 73.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 27.5N 74.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 26.0N 75.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.2N 80.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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