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Hurricane MATTHEW Wind Speed Probabilities Number 44
2016-10-09 04:48:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN OCT 09 2016 000 FONT14 KNHC 090248 PWSAT4 HURRICANE MATTHEW WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 44 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 0300 UTC SUN OCT 09 2016 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MATTHEW WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE HENLOPEN 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) OCEAN CITY MD 34 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PAX RIVER NAS 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) WALLOPS CDA 34 4 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) RICHMOND VA 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) DANVILLE VA 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NORFOLK NAS 34 5 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) NORFOLK VA 34 6 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) OCEANA NAS VA 34 6 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ELIZABETH CTY 34 12 2(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) GREENSBORO NC 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) RALEIGH NC 34 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ROCKY MT NC 34 5 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CAPE HATTERAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CAPE HATTERAS 50 29 X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) CAPE HATTERAS 64 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FAYETTEVILLE 34 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CHERRY PT NC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CHERRY PT NC 50 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NEW RIVER NC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) NEW RIVER NC 50 89 X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) NEW RIVER NC 64 7 X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MOREHEAD CITY 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MOREHEAD CITY 50 86 X(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) MOREHEAD CITY 64 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SURF CITY NC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SURF CITY NC 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) WILMINGTON NC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BALD HEAD ISL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BALD HEAD ISL 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BALD HEAD ISL 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) FLORENCE SC 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LITTLE RIVER 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MYRTLE BEACH 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GEORGETOWN SC 34 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CHARLESTON SC 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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matthew
Summary for Hurricane MATTHEW (AT4/AL142016)
2016-10-09 04:47:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA LATER TONIGHT AS MATTHEW MOVES EAST-NORTHEASTWARD... ...RECORD-BREAKING FLOODING OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... As of 11:00 PM EDT Sat Oct 8 the center of MATTHEW was located near 34.1, -76.5 with movement ENE at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 982 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
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Hurricane MATTHEW Public Advisory Number 44
2016-10-09 04:47:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT SAT OCT 08 2016 000 WTNT34 KNHC 090247 TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER 44 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 1100 PM EDT SAT OCT 08 2016 ...STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA LATER TONIGHT AS MATTHEW MOVES EAST-NORTHEASTWARD... ...RECORD-BREAKING FLOODING OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.1N 76.5W ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM S OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the North Carolina coast north of Cape Lookout to Duck, including the Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds. All warnings are discontinued west of Little River Inlet on the South Carolina-North Carolina border. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Little River Inlet to Surf City A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * North of Surf City to Duck * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of Surf City to Duck * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 12 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Matthew was located near latitude 34.1 North, longitude 76.5 West. Matthew is moving toward the east-northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue tonight. An eastward motion is expected Sunday night and Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Matthew should move near or south of the coast of North Carolina tonight and east of the North Carolina coast on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast tonight, although Matthew could become a post-tropical cyclone later tonight. Weakening is expected Sunday and Monday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) mainly to the southwest of the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km). A wind gust to 81 mph (130 km/h) was recently reported by a private weather station at Federal Point, North Carolina. The estimated minimum central pressure based on a combination of aircraft and surface data is 982 mb (29.00 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are expected to continue over the hurricane warning area tonight and then subside during the day on Sunday. Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch and Tropical Storm Warning area in North Carolina later tonight and Sunday morning, with tropical storm conditions expected during the next few hours. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge, the tide, and large and destructive waves will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Murrells Inlet, South Carolina, to Duck, North Carolina, including portions of the Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds...3 to 5 ft Along the Georgia and South Carolina coasts southwest of Matthew's center, inundation caused by Matthew's storm surge will slowly recede today. The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water rises to occur well in advance of and well away from the track of the center. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. There is a danger of life-threatening inundation during the next 36 hours along the coast from Murrells Inlet, South Carolina to Salvo, North Carolina including portions of the Pamlico Sound. There is the possibility of life-threatening inundation during the next 48 hours from Salvo to Duck, North Carolina including portions of the Albemarle Sound. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the Prototype National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. The Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic is a depiction of areas that would qualify for inclusion under a storm surge watch or warning currently under development by the National Weather Service and planned for operational use in 2017. The Prototype Graphic is available at hurricanes.gov. RAINFALL: Matthew is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 8 to 12 inches from northeast South Carolina into northeast North Carolina and southeast Virginia, with possible isolated totals of 20 inches possible. This rainfall is producing record-breaking flooding over portions of eastern North Carolina, and it may result in life-threatening flooding and flash flooding elsewhere across the region. SURF: Swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect much of the coast of the southeastern United States through early next week. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Hurricane MATTHEW Forecast Advisory Number 44
2016-10-09 04:47:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN OCT 09 2016 000 WTNT24 KNHC 090247 TCMAT4 HURRICANE MATTHEW FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 44 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 0300 UTC SUN OCT 09 2016 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT TO DUCK...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. ALL WARNINGS ARE DISCONTINUED WEST OF LITTLE RIVER INLET ON THE SOUTH CAROLINA-NORTH CAROLINA BORDER. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LITTLE RIVER INLET TO SURF CITY A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF SURF CITY TO DUCK * PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF SURF CITY TO DUCK * PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.1N 76.5W AT 09/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 70 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 0NE 0SE 60SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 80SE 90SW 30NW. 34 KT.......160NE 140SE 120SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 240SE 290SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.1N 76.5W AT 09/0300Z AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.9N 77.3W FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 34.6N 74.7W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 0SE 60SW 0NW. 50 KT... 60NE 80SE 90SW 90NW. 34 KT...170NE 140SE 120SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 34.4N 72.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 80SW 80NW. 34 KT...175NE 175SE 200SW 175NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 33.8N 70.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 210SW 210NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 33.0N 69.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 0SE 240SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.1N 76.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Summary for Hurricane MATTHEW (AT4/AL142016)
2016-10-09 01:54:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...CENTER OF MATTHEW NOW EAST OF CAPE FEAR... ...RECORD-BREAKING FLOODING DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... As of 8:00 PM EDT Sat Oct 8 the center of MATTHEW was located near 33.8, -77.3 with movement ENE at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 981 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
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