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Tropical Storm KATE Forecast Discussion Number 9

2015-11-11 03:39:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST TUE NOV 10 2015 000 WTNT42 KNHC 110239 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122015 1100 PM AST TUE NOV 10 2015 The overall structure of Kate has not changed much since this afternoon, however, the area of cloud tops has expanded and cooled within the past few hours. NOAA reconnaissance aircraft data from around 0000 UTC showed that the center remains embedded within the central dense overcast, but there was significant tilt between the 700 mb and surface centers. Although flight-level winds and 0000 UTC Dvorak classifications support an intensity of 65 kt, dropwindsonde and SFMR data indicate that the winds aloft are not efficiently mixing down to the surface and the initial intensity remains 60 kt. There is only a short window of opportunity for Kate to reach hurricane strength, before it moves over cooler waters and the shear increases to more than 30 kt by Wednesday morning. Kate is expected to remain a powerful cyclone as it becomes extratropical in about 36 hours. Later in the period, Kate is forecast to gradually weaken as it loses baroclinic forcing. The extratropical low is forecast to be absorbed by a front over the north Atlantic in 4 to 5 days. The initial motion estimate is 055/30 kt. Kate should continue moving rapidly northeastward or east-northeastward during the next 24 hours, then temporarily slow down during the 36 to 48 hour time period while it interacts with an upper-level trough. After that time, the extratropical low should again accelerate northeastward over the north-central Atlantic. The model guidance is in very good agreement on this scenario, and the updated track forecast is essentially an update of the previous advisory. The extratropical portion of Kate's forecast was coordinated with the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0300Z 33.9N 69.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 11/1200Z 36.0N 64.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 12/0000Z 38.9N 55.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 12/1200Z 41.6N 50.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 13/0000Z 42.6N 49.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 14/0000Z 44.0N 41.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 15/0000Z 50.0N 28.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 16/0000Z...ABSORBED $$ Forecaster Brown

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Tropical Storm KATE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9

2015-11-11 03:39:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC WED NOV 11 2015 000 FONT12 KNHC 110239 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM KATE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122015 0300 UTC WED NOV 11 2015 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KATE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Tropical Storm KATE Forecast Advisory Number 9

2015-11-11 03:37:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC WED NOV 11 2015 000 WTNT22 KNHC 110237 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM KATE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122015 0300 UTC WED NOV 11 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KATE. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.9N 69.5W AT 11/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 30 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 20SW 20NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 15NE 150SE 180SW 15NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.9N 69.5W AT 11/0300Z AT 11/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.1N 71.3W FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 36.0N 64.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 100SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 38.9N 55.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 60SE 40SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 140SE 80SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 41.6N 50.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 90NW. 34 KT...210NE 300SE 210SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 42.6N 49.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 150NW. 34 KT...360NE 480SE 480SW 270NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 44.0N 41.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...480NE 480SE 240SW 300NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 50.0N 28.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z...ABSORBED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.9N 69.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Savannah Children's Book Festival: Kate DiCamillo

2015-11-10 22:37:07| Grocery - Topix.net

ASK any fourth grader if they've ever heard of Because of Winn-Dixie , and you'll probably see a pair of eyes light up. The warm, funny story of lonely Opal and her homely mutt has been a runaway hit with the juice box set since it was published in 2000, and it became even more recognizable after it was adapted for the 2005 film starring Jeff Daniels.

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