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Tropical Storm KATE Forecast Discussion Number 7
2015-11-10 15:52:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM EST TUE NOV 10 2015 000 WTNT42 KNHC 101451 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122015 1000 AM EST TUE NOV 10 2015 Data from both NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating Kate this morning indicate that the storm has continued to strengthen. The initial intensity is set to 60 kt based on a peak SFMR wind of 61 kt from the Air Force aircraft. Given the latest dropsonde data, the central pressure is estimated at 999 mb. Kate's center continues to be embedded within a small CDO feature, with aircraft data indicating some tilt to the circulation, consistent with 15 to 20 kt of southwesterly shear analyzed over the cyclone. Despite increasing shear and cooling SSTs along the track, all of the guidance continues to suggest that Kate will strengthen during the next 24-36 hours, likely due in part to very cold temperatures aloft. The NHC forecast follows this trend, and is above the guidance in the short range given the initial intensity, and shows Kate peaking at 70 kt in 24 to 36 hours. As the shear increases to over 40 kt, Kate should lose tropical characteristics by 48 hours and then weaken as it becomes fully extratropical by 72 hours. The official forecast carries Kate as the dominant feature through 5 days as it interacts with another extratropical low over the north Atlantic. Kate continues to accelerate, with an initial motion estimate of 035/18. A further acceleration toward the east-northeast is forecast during the next 24 to 36 hours as Kate becomes fully embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies. A slowing of the forward speed is expected in 48 to 72 hours while Kate interacts with an upper-level trough during extratropical transition, followed by a faster northwestward motion over the north Atlantic at the end of the forecast period. The new NHC track forecast is largely an update of the previous one. This forecast is close to the latest GFS track through 48 hours and a little to the north of that model afterward. The extratropical portion of Kate's forecast was coordinated with the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/1500Z 30.2N 74.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 11/0000Z 32.5N 71.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 11/1200Z 35.3N 64.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 12/0000Z 37.8N 56.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 12/1200Z 40.5N 51.8W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 13/1200Z 42.0N 47.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 14/1200Z 47.0N 36.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 15/1200Z 55.5N 22.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Summary for Tropical Storm KATE (AT2/AL122015)
2015-11-10 15:50:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...KATE MOVING QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY TONIGHT... As of 10:00 AM EST Tue Nov 10 the center of KATE was located near 30.2, -74.7 with movement NE at 21 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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Tropical Storm KATE Public Advisory Number 7
2015-11-10 15:50:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM EST TUE NOV 10 2015 000 WTNT32 KNHC 101450 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM KATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122015 1000 AM EST TUE NOV 10 2015 ...KATE MOVING QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.2N 74.7W ABOUT 350 MI...560 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 600 MI...970 KM W OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Kate. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1000 AM EST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kate was located near latitude 30.2 North, longitude 74.7 West. Kate is moving toward the northeast near 21 mph (33 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today with an increase in forward speed. A turn toward the east-northeast and a further increase in forward speed are expected tonight and Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Kate is expected to remain well offshore of the east coast of the United States and pass north of Bermuda tonight and early Wednesday. Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and Kate is forecast to become a hurricane by tonight. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The latest minimum central pressure based on data from the aircraft is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells from Kate affecting the eastward-facing beaches in the northwestern Bahamas should gradually subside today. Swells from Kate will begin to affect Bermuda tonight and continue through Wednesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM EST. $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Tropical Storm KATE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2015-11-10 15:49:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE NOV 10 2015 000 FONT12 KNHC 101448 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM KATE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122015 1500 UTC TUE NOV 10 2015 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KATE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) BERMUDA 34 X 13(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
Tropical Storm KATE Forecast Advisory Number 7
2015-11-10 15:48:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE NOV 10 2015 000 WTNT22 KNHC 101448 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM KATE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122015 1500 UTC TUE NOV 10 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KATE. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.2N 74.7W AT 10/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 18 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 20SW 20NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 60SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.2N 74.7W AT 10/1500Z AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.5N 75.4W FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 32.5N 71.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 80SE 40SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 35.3N 64.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 100SE 70SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 37.8N 56.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 0NW. 50 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 35NW. 34 KT...100NE 130SE 100SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 40.5N 51.8W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...200NE 300SE 150SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 42.0N 47.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...300NE 360SE 240SW 300NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 47.0N 36.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 55.5N 22.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.2N 74.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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