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Hurricane Nora Public Advisory Number 16
2021-08-29 16:45:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Sun Aug 29 2021 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 291444 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Hurricane Nora Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021 900 AM MDT Sun Aug 29 2021 ...NORA NEAR MAZATLAN ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHERN SINALOA... ...HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.3N 106.4W ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM N OF MAZATLAN MEXICO ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM E OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * San Blas to Altata Mexico A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * North of Altata to Topolobampo Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of Altata to Topolobampo Mexico A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Cabo San Lucas to La Paz Mexico A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere along the coasts of Sinaloa, Sonora, and Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of Nora. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Nora was located near latitude 23.3 North, longitude 106.4 West. Nora is moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue today, followed by a slower northwestward motion tonight through Tuesday. Nora is forecast to move very near and roughly parallel to the coast of Mexico early this week. However, even a small deviation to the right of the forecast track could cause Nora to move inland and dissipate within the next day or so. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the couple of days as the center moves roughly parallel to the coast of Mexico. However, rapid weakening will likely occur if the center moves inland sooner than forecast. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Nora can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4, WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Hurricane conditions are likely in portions of the Hurricane Warning area through this evening. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area on Monday. Tropical storm conditions are likely in the Tropical Storm Warning area in mainland Mexico beginning later today, and are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area in Baja California Sur on Monday. RAINFALL: Nora is expected to produce additional rainfall of 2 to 4 inches across the coastal portions of the states of Guerrero and Michoacan through Monday. Heavy rainfall is likely along the west coast of Mexico from Colima to Sonora through late week as Nora lifts northward through the Gulf of California. Rainfall of 8 to 12 inches with maximum amounts of 20 inches is possible. This rainfall will produce life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Rainfall of 2 to 4 inches with maximum amounts of 6 inches is possible in Baja California Sur. Toward the middle and latter part of the week, moisture associated with Nora is likely to bring heavy rainfall and the potential for scattered flash flooding to portions of the southwestern U.S. and central Rockies. STORM SURGE: A storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds within the hurricane warning area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Nora are affecting the southwestern coast of Mexico and will spread northward to the coast of Baja California Sur and into the Gulf of California early this week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM MDT. Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart
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Hurricane Nora Forecast Advisory Number 16
2021-08-29 16:45:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN AUG 29 2021 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 291444 TCMEP4 HURRICANE NORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142021 1500 UTC SUN AUG 29 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SAN BLAS TO ALTATA MEXICO A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF ALTATA TO TOPOLOBAMPO MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF ALTATA TO TOPOLOBAMPO MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CABO SAN LUCAS TO LA PAZ MEXICO A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COASTS OF SINALOA...SONORA...AND BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NORA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 106.4W AT 29/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 10NE 10SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 75SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 106.4W AT 29/1500Z AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 106.1W FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 23.8N 106.9W...NEAR THE COAST MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 24.3N 107.5W...NEAR THE COAST MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 24.9N 108.2W...NEAR THE COAST MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 25.6N 109.0W...NEAR THE COAST MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 26.5N 109.6W...NEAR THE COAST MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 27.5N 110.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 20SE 40SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 29.5N 111.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.3N 106.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 29/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART
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Summary for Hurricane Ida (AT4/AL092021)
2021-08-29 15:55:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...900 AM CDT POSITION UPDATE... ...NORTHERN EYEWALL OF IDA APPROACHING THE COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA... As of 9:00 AM CDT Sun Aug 29 the center of Ida was located near 28.7, -89.8 with movement NW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 930 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 150 mph.
Hurricane Ida Update Statement
2021-08-29 15:55:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 900 AM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021 938 WTNT64 KNHC 291355 TCUAT4 Hurricane Ida Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021 900 AM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021 ...900 AM CDT POSITION UPDATE... ...NORTHERN EYEWALL OF IDA APPROACHING THE COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA... An elevated NOAA C-MAN station at Southwest Pass, Louisiana, recently reported a sustained wind of 102 mph (165 km/h) and a wind gust of 116 mph (187 km/h). Another elevated NOAA C-MAN station at Pilot's Station East near Southwest Pass recently reported a sustained wind of 97 mph (156 km/h) and a gust to 121 mph (194 km/h). A NOAA National Ocean Service observing site at Pilottown, Louisiana, recently reported a sustained wind of 52 mph (84 km/h) and a gust of 77 mph (124 km/h). SUMMARY OF 900 AM CDT...1400 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.7N 89.8W ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM SSE OF GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SSE OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...930 MB...27.46 INCHES $$ Forecaster Brennan/Brown
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Hurricane Ida Forecast Discussion Number 13
2021-08-29 13:58:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 700 AM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021 000 WTNT44 KNHC 291158 TCDAT4 Hurricane Ida Special Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021 700 AM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021 Recent reports from both NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Ida has continued to strengthen since the 0900 UTC advisory and the maximum winds are estimated to be 130 kt. This intensity is based on peak 700-mb flight-level winds of 146 kt that have been reported by both aircraft and believable SFMR winds of around 130 kt. The NOAA aircraft very recently reported that the minimum pressure has fallen to around 933 mb. This special advisory is issued to raise the 12-hour forecast intensity to 135 kt, but it is possible that Ida could peak slightly above that before landfall occurs. The initial motion estimate is 320/13 kt, slightly faster than the previous forecast. Therefore, the 12-hour forecast point has also been adjusted slightly. No other changes were made to the track or intensity forecasts. The initial and forecast 64-kt wind radii were adjusted outward in the northeast and southeast quadrants based on aircraft data. Note that this Special advisory replaces the regular 1200 UTC (700 AM CDT) intermediate public advisory. Key Messages: 1. Extremely life-threatening storm surge inundation of 9 feet or greater above ground level is imminent somewhere within the area from Burns Point, Louisiana, to Ocean Springs, Mississippi. Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation values may be higher. Interests throughout the Storm Surge Warning area should follow any advice given by local officials. 2. Catastrophic wind damage is likely where the core of Ida moves onshore along the southeast coast of Louisiana in the next few hours. Hurricane-force winds are expected today within the Hurricane Warning area along the Louisiana coast, including metropolitan New Orleans. 3. Damaging winds, especially in gusts, will spread inland near the track of the center of Ida across portions of southeastern Louisiana and southwestern Mississippi today through early Monday. These winds will likely lead to widespread tree damage and power outages. 4. Ida will produce heavy rainfall today through Monday across the central Gulf Coast from southeastern Louisiana, coastal Mississippi, to far southwestern Alabama resulting in considerable to life- threatening flash and urban flooding and significant river flooding impacts. As Ida moves inland, significant flooding impacts are possible across portions of the Lower Mississippi, Tennessee, and Ohio Valleys through Wednesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/1200Z 28.5N 89.6W 130 KT 150 MPH 12H 29/1800Z 29.2N 90.4W 135 KT 155 MPH 24H 30/0600Z 30.6N 91.1W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND 36H 30/1800Z 32.2N 91.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 48H 31/0600Z 33.8N 90.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 60H 31/1800Z 35.4N 87.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 72H 01/0600Z 36.7N 85.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND 96H 02/0600Z 38.9N 78.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 120H 03/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown/Brennan
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