je.st
news
Tag: hurricane
Hurricane Ida Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics
2021-08-29 23:15:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Sun, 29 Aug 2021 21:15:19 GMT
Tags: graphics
storm
hurricane
surge
Hurricane Ida Graphics
2021-08-29 22:52:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 29 Aug 2021 20:52:54 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 29 Aug 2021 21:23:02 GMT
Tags: graphics
hurricane
ida
hurricane graphics
Hurricane Ida Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
2021-08-29 22:52:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Sun, 29 Aug 2021 20:52:43 GMT
Tags: map
storm
hurricane
surge
Hurricane Ida Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15
2021-08-29 22:52:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 29 2021 000 FONT14 KNHC 292052 PWSAT4 HURRICANE IDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092021 2100 UTC SUN AUG 29 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 115 KTS...130 MPH...215 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) WORCESTER MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 2 X( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MONTGOMERY AL 34 2 X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WHITING FLD FL 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PENSACOLA FL 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MOBILE AL 34 8 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) GULFPORT MS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) STENNIS MS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) STENNIS MS 50 46 X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) STENNIS MS 64 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BURAS LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BURAS LA 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BURAS LA 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GFMX 280N 890W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) JACKSON MS 34 24 45(69) 1(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) JACKSON MS 50 1 10(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) JACKSON MS 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) NEW ORLEANS LA 64 98 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BATON ROUGE LA 34 99 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BATON ROUGE LA 50 73 X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) BATON ROUGE LA 64 33 X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) MORGAN CITY LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MORGAN CITY LA 50 52 X(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) MORGAN CITY LA 64 7 X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 10 2(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) LAFAYETTE LA 34 49 X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) LAFAYETTE LA 50 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NEW IBERIA LA 34 60 X(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) NEW IBERIA LA 50 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) FORT POLK LA 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LAKE CHARLES 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Tags: number
speed
wind
hurricane
Hurricane Ida Forecast Discussion Number 15
2021-08-29 22:52:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021 000 WTNT44 KNHC 292052 TCDAT4 Hurricane Ida Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021 400 PM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021 NWS Doppler radar imagery and data from an Air Force Reserve Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft showed that Ida made landfall around 1655 UTC along the southeastern coast of Louisiana near Port Fourchon with estimated maximum winds of 130 kt and a minimum pressure around 930 mb. Since that time, Ida made a second landfall southwest of Galliano, Louisiana, and with the eyewall now onshore weakening has begun. Based on the latest Doppler velocities the initial wind speed has been conservatively reduced to 115 kt for this advisory. As Ida's circulation moves farther inland this evening and overnight a faster rate of weakening is expected, and Ida is forecast to become a tropical depression over Mississippi by late Monday. Although weakening is forecast, damaging winds, especially in gusts, are expected to spread inland over southeastern Louisiana and southwestern Mississippi through Monday morning. To account for this, the gust factor in the Forecast/Advisory has been adjusted accordingly. By 72 hours, Ida is predicted to merge with a frontal zone over the eastern United States and become an extratropical low, and this low is forecast to strengthen into a gale center near Atlantic Canada by the end of the forecast period. Radar fixes indicate that Ida's forward motion has slowed and the initial motion estimate is 325/9 kt. The hurricane should turn northward tonight around the western periphery of a deep-layer ridge near the southeastern United States coast. Ida is forecast to turn northeastward and recurve over the eastern United States as it enters the mid-latitude westerlies. The GFS is a bit faster in ejecting the post-tropical cyclone northeastward on days 3 through 5, and the NHC forecast follows a blend of the various consensus models and the GFS ensemble mean. Key Messages: 1. Extremely life-threatening storm surge inundation of 9 feet or greater above ground level will continue through early this evening along portions of the coast between Burns Point, Louisiana, to Ocean Springs, Mississippi. Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation values may be higher. 2. Catastrophic wind damage will occur near the core of Ida as it moves inland over southeastern Louisiana during the next few hours. Hurricane-force winds and damaging wind gusts are expected through tonight within the Hurricane Warning area in southeastern Louisiana, including metropolitan New Orleans. 3. Damaging winds, especially in gusts, will spread inland near the track of the center of Ida into southwestern Mississippi tonight and early Monday. These winds will likely lead to widespread tree damage and power outages. 4. Ida will continue to produce heavy rainfall through Monday across the central Gulf Coast across southeast Louisiana, coastal Mississippi, and southwestern Alabama, resulting in considerable to life-threatening flash and urban flooding and significant river flooding impacts. As Ida moves inland, significant flooding impacts are possible across portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley, Tennessee Valley, Upper Ohio Valley, Central Appalachians, and Mid-Atlantic through Wednesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/2100Z 29.5N 90.6W 115 KT 130 MPH...INLAND 12H 30/0600Z 30.7N 90.9W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND 24H 30/1800Z 32.4N 90.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 31/0600Z 34.0N 89.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 48H 31/1800Z 35.6N 87.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 60H 01/0600Z 37.1N 84.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 72H 01/1800Z 38.6N 80.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 02/1800Z 41.3N 72.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 03/1800Z 43.8N 67.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Brown
Tags: number
discussion
forecast
hurricane
Sites : [122] [123] [124] [125] [126] [127] [128] [129] [130] [131] [132] [133] [134] [135] [136] [137] [138] [139] [140] [141] next »