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Hurricane Nora Public Advisory Number 14
2021-08-29 04:59:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 290258 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Hurricane Nora Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021 1000 PM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021 ...NORA CAUSING VERY HEAVY RAINS ALONG THE COASTS OF JALISCO AND NAYARIT... ...HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS WILL SPREAD NORTH INTO SINALOA OVERNIGHT... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.3N 105.5W ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM NNW OF PUERTO VALLARTA MEXICO ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM ESE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has discontinued the Hurricane Warning from east of Playa Perula to Manzanillo and has issued a Tropical Storm Warning from north of Altata to Topolobampo. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Playa Perula to Altata Mexico A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * North of Altata to Topolobampo Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of Altata to Topolobampo Mexico A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Cabo San Lucas to La Paz Mexico A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the coasts of Sinaloa, Sonora, and Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of Nora. Additional watches and warnings may be required for portions of these areas tonight or on Sunday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Nora was located near the coast of Mexico at latitude 21.3 North, longitude 105.5 West. Nora is moving toward the north near 16 mph (26 km/h). A turn toward the north-northwest is likely tonight or on Sunday, followed by a slower northwestward motion Sunday night through Tuesday. Nora is forecast to move roughly parallel to the coast of Mexico through early near week. However, even a small deviation to the right of the forecast track could cause Nora to move farther inland and dissipate. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the day or two if Nora's center stays over the waters of the Gulf of California. However, rapid weakening will likely occur if the center moves further inland. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb (29.06 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Nora can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4, WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Hurricane conditions are likely in portions of the southern hurricane warning area tonight and could spread northward through the warning area on Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are likely in the tropical storm warning area in mainland Mexico and are possible within the tropical storm watch area in Baja California Sur on Monday. RAINFALL: Nora is expected to produce rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches with maximum amounts of 20 inches through early next week along the west coast of Mexico from the states of Michoacan northward to southern Sonora, including Baja California Sur. This rainfall will produce life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Toward the middle and latter part of next week, moisture associated with Nora may bring heavy rainfall to portions of the southwestern U.S. and central Rockies. STORM SURGE: A storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Nora are affecting the southern and southwestern coast of Mexico and will spread northward to the coast of Baja California Sur and into the Gulf of California into early next week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky
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Hurricane Nora Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14
2021-08-29 04:59:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN AUG 29 2021 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 290258 PWSEP4 HURRICANE NORA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142021 0300 UTC SUN AUG 29 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NORA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PUNTA EUGENIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 1 2( 3) 5( 8) 5(13) 2(15) X(15) X(15) SAN JOSE CABO 34 2 2( 4) 8(12) 5(17) 2(19) X(19) X(19) LA PAZ 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 5(11) 1(12) X(12) LORETO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 9(10) 2(12) X(12) HERMOSILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 2(11) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 9(11) 6(17) 2(19) GUAYMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 9(12) 2(14) 1(15) LOS MOCHIS 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 11(16) 7(23) X(23) X(23) LOS MOCHIS 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CULIACAN 34 1 16(17) 18(35) 3(38) 1(39) X(39) X(39) CULIACAN 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLAS MARIAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ISLAS MARIAS 50 35 X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) MAZATLAN 34 93 2(95) X(95) 1(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) MAZATLAN 50 48 14(62) 1(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) MAZATLAN 64 5 8(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) SAN BLAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SAN BLAS 50 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) P VALLARTA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) P VALLARTA 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 20N 110W 34 1 X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY
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Hurricane Nora Forecast Advisory Number 14
2021-08-29 04:58:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN AUG 29 2021 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 290258 TCMEP4 HURRICANE NORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142021 0300 UTC SUN AUG 29 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WARNING FROM EAST OF PLAYA PERULA TO MANZANILLO AND HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM NORTH OF ALTATA TO TOPOLOBAMPO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PLAYA PERULA TO ALTATA MEXICO A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF ALTATA TO TOPOLOBAMPO MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF ALTATA TO TOPOLOBAMPO MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CABO SAN LUCAS TO LA PAZ MEXICO A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COASTS OF SINALOA...SONORA...AND BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NORA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS TONIGHT OR ON SUNDAY. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 105.5W AT 29/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 0SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 300SE 180SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 105.5W AT 29/0300Z AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 105.5W FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 22.8N 106.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 30NE 50SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 23.7N 107.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 24.4N 107.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 24.9N 108.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 25.6N 109.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 26.8N 110.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 28.6N 110.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 30.2N 110.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.3N 105.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 29/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z $$ FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY
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Hurricane Ida Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
2021-08-29 04:52:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Sun, 29 Aug 2021 02:52:43 GMT
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Hurricane Ida Graphics
2021-08-29 04:51:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 29 Aug 2021 02:51:04 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 29 Aug 2021 03:22:49 GMT
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