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Hurricane Ida Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12

2021-08-29 10:56:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN AUG 29 2021 000 FONT14 KNHC 290855 PWSAT4 HURRICANE IDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092021 0900 UTC SUN AUG 29 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 120 KTS...140 MPH...220 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) CAPE HENLOPEN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) CAPE HENLOPEN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) OCEAN CITY MD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) APALACHICOLA 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GFMX 290N 850W 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PANAMA CITY FL 34 3 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 3 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MONTGOMERY AL 34 2 5( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) WHITING FLD FL 34 3 5( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) PENSACOLA FL 34 3 5( 8) 2(10) X(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) GFMX 290N 870W 34 5 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) MOBILE AL 34 10 19(29) 2(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) MOBILE AL 50 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GULFPORT MS 34 67 17(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) GULFPORT MS 50 6 10(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) GULFPORT MS 64 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) STENNIS MS 34 87 8(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) STENNIS MS 50 13 36(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) STENNIS MS 64 1 9(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) BURAS LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BURAS LA 50 92 2(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) BURAS LA 64 28 9(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) GFMX 280N 890W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GFMX 280N 890W 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GFMX 280N 890W 64 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) JACKSON MS 34 4 37(41) 21(62) 2(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) JACKSON MS 50 X 6( 6) 12(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) JACKSON MS 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 99 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 58 37(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) NEW ORLEANS LA 64 9 60(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) GFMX 280N 910W 34 77 1(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) GFMX 280N 910W 50 11 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) GFMX 280N 910W 64 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) BATON ROUGE LA 34 70 28(98) 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BATON ROUGE LA 50 7 78(85) 3(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) BATON ROUGE LA 64 1 53(54) 1(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) MORGAN CITY LA 34 94 5(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MORGAN CITY LA 50 40 46(86) 1(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) MORGAN CITY LA 64 6 47(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 4 51(55) 6(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) ALEXANDRIA LA 50 1 10(11) 2(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) ALEXANDRIA LA 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) LAFAYETTE LA 34 31 56(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) LAFAYETTE LA 50 3 28(31) 1(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) LAFAYETTE LA 64 1 7( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) NEW IBERIA LA 34 50 39(89) 1(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) NEW IBERIA LA 50 5 33(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) NEW IBERIA LA 64 1 10(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) GFMX 280N 930W 34 4 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SHREVEPORT LA 34 2 6( 8) 2(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) FORT POLK LA 34 3 21(24) 2(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) FORT POLK LA 50 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LAKE CHARLES 34 4 18(22) 1(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) LAKE CHARLES 50 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CAMERON LA 34 5 10(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) CAMERON LA 50 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) JASPER TX 34 3 6( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) KOUNTZE TX 34 3 5( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 3 5( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) GALVESTON TX 34 3 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) HOUSTON TX 34 2 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) FREEPORT TX 34 2 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GFMX 280N 950W 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 3 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MATAGORDA TX 34 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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Hurricane Ida Forecast Advisory Number 12

2021-08-29 10:55:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN AUG 29 2021 000 WTNT24 KNHC 290855 TCMAT4 HURRICANE IDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092021 0900 UTC SUN AUG 29 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF ROCKEFELLER WILDLIFE REFUGE LOUISIANA TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER * VERMILION BAY...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND MOBILE BAY A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAMERON LOUISIANA TO WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA * MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.0N 89.1W AT 29/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 946 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT. 64 KT....... 35NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT.......120NE 100SE 80SW 110NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 150SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.0N 89.1W AT 29/0900Z AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.6N 88.7W FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 29.1N 90.3W...NEAR SERN LOUISIANA COAST MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 30.6N 91.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 120SE 80SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 32.2N 91.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 120SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 33.8N 90.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 35.4N 87.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 36.7N 85.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 38.9N 78.9W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.0N 89.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 29/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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Hurricane Nora Graphics

2021-08-29 10:52:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 29 Aug 2021 08:52:28 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 29 Aug 2021 09:40:45 GMT

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Hurricane Nora Forecast Discussion Number 15

2021-08-29 10:52:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 400 AM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 290852 TCDEP4 Hurricane Nora Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021 400 AM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021 There have been no recent in-situ observations for estimating the intensity of Nora, but the cyclone is still fairly well-organized on satellite images. Taking a blend of T- and Current Intensity numbers from TAFB and SAB along with ADT estimates from UW-CIMSS still supports keeping the system as a hurricane at this time. Center fixes indicate that Nora is moving a little west of due north at a decreased forward speed, or around 350/9 kt. The tropical cyclone is expected to move north-northwestward to northwestward during the next few days, on the southwestern side of a mid-level ridge. This would take Nora over the eastern part of the Gulf of California, but very near the coast of mainland Mexico over the next few days. The track guidance has shifted somewhat to the east, and now suggests that it is a very distinct possibility that the system will move inland much sooner than shown by the latest NHC track forecast. The future intensity of Nora is of course highly dependent on how soon the center moves inland. The official intensity forecast assumes that the system will remain just offshore so that only slow weakening will occur during the next 72 hours or so. This is in good agreement with the NOAA corrected consensus guidance. Alternatively, Nora may move inland sooner than indicated, in which case the system would probably dissipate in 2 to 3 days or less. Obviously, this intensity forecast is of low confidence. Key Messages: 1. Nora is forecast to be at or near hurricane strength while it moves near the coasts of Nayarit and Sinaloa through the weekend and into Monday, and hurricane warnings or watches are in effect for portions of that coastline. Interests in these areas should closely monitor the progress of Nora and subsequent updates to the forecast. 2. Heavy rain associated with Nora is expected across the west coast of Mexico from the states of Colima northward to southern Sonora. This rain will likely result in life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides across these regions. Rainfall from Nora is likely to spread into the southwestern U.S. and central Rockies during the middle to latter portion of the week, bringing the potential for flash flooding to the region. 3. Nora is forecast to move north-northwestward to northwestward over the Gulf of California Tuesday and Wednesday, bringing a risk of wind impacts to portions of the Mexican states of Baja California Sur, northern Sinaloa, and Sonora. Given the above-average uncertainty in the forecast intensity, confidence is not high enough to determine the magnitude and location of these potential impacts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0900Z 22.5N 105.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 29/1800Z 23.6N 106.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 30/0600Z 24.2N 107.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 30/1800Z 24.7N 108.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 31/0600Z 25.2N 108.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 31/1800Z 26.0N 109.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 01/0600Z 27.0N 110.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 02/0600Z 29.5N 111.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 120H 03/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch

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Hurricane Nora Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15

2021-08-29 10:51:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN AUG 29 2021 655 FOPZ14 KNHC 290851 PWSEP4 HURRICANE NORA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142021 0900 UTC SUN AUG 29 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NORA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 2 2( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) 1(11) X(11) SAN JOSE CABO 34 2 3( 5) 4( 9) 3(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14) LA PAZ 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 3( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) LORETO 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) 1(10) X(10) HERMOSILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 6(11) X(11) GUAYMAS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 9(12) 5(17) X(17) GUAYMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) HUATABAMPO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 10(14) 1(15) X(15) HUATABAMPO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) LOS MOCHIS 34 1 3( 4) 7(11) 10(21) 6(27) 1(28) X(28) LOS MOCHIS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CULIACAN 34 10 22(32) 6(38) 1(39) 1(40) X(40) X(40) CULIACAN 50 X 4( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ISLAS MARIAS 34 3 2( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MAZATLAN 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MAZATLAN 50 93 X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) MAZATLAN 64 12 X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) SAN BLAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 20N 110W 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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