je.st
news
Tag: hurricane
Hurricane Ida Forecast Advisory Number 14
2021-08-29 16:52:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN AUG 29 2021 698 WTNT24 KNHC 291452 TCMAT4 HURRICANE IDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092021 1500 UTC SUN AUG 29 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE STORM SURGE WARNING WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER * VERMILION BAY...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND MOBILE BAY A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAMERON LOUISIANA TO WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA * MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.8N 90.0W AT 29/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 933 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT. 64 KT....... 45NE 35SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT.......130NE 110SE 80SW 110NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 150SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.8N 90.0W AT 29/1500Z AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.5N 89.6W FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 30.0N 90.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 31.6N 91.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 90SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 33.2N 90.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 34.9N 88.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 36.4N 85.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 37.8N 82.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 40.5N 74.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 43.5N 67.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.8N 90.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 29/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Tags: number
advisory
forecast
hurricane
Hurricane Nora Graphics
2021-08-29 16:46:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 29 Aug 2021 14:46:45 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 29 Aug 2021 14:46:46 GMT
Hurricane Nora Forecast Discussion Number 16
2021-08-29 16:46:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Sun Aug 29 2021 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 291445 TCDEP4 Hurricane Nora Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021 900 AM MDT Sun Aug 29 2021 Nora has a healthy satellite appearance this morning. The deep convection near and to the west of the estimated center is maintaining a fairly large central dense overcast with very cold infrared cloud tops. Recent ATMS and SSMIS microwave data indicate Nora still has a pronounced mid-level eye structure, with the center very near the coast of extreme southern Sinaloa. A blend of the UW-CIMSS objective ADT estimate and 12 UTC subjective Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB support holding the initial intensity at 65 kt for this advisory. The estimated initial motion of Nora is north-northwestward or 345/9 kt, although this is somewhat uncertain due to the lack of in-situ observations. A mid-level ridge should continue to steer the tropical cyclone generally north-northwestward to northwestward during the next few days. This motion will bring the center over the eastern Gulf of California and very near or over the coast of west-central Mexico. The official NHC track forecast is adjusted just slightly to the right of the previous one, in line with the latest track guidance. Nora's intensity forecast remains highly dependent on whether the center moves inland over mainland Mexico or along the Gulf of California, parallel to the west-central coast of Mexico. Given the slight eastward track adjustment, the official NHC intensity forecast shows gradual weakening over the next few days due to at least intermittent land interaction as Nora skirts the coast. This is consistent with the general intensity guidance consensus, which no longer supports strengthening given Nora's proximity to land. Due to the complex geography of western Mexico, even a slight eastward deviation from the forecast track would result in more rapid weakening as Nora moves further inland. Conversely, a more northwestward motion over the warm Gulf of California waters could allow Nora to remain a stronger tropical storm early this week. As previously mentioned, confidence in the intensity forecast is lower than normal. Key Messages: 1. Nora is forecast to be at or near hurricane strength while it moves near the coasts of Nayarit and Sinaloa today and into Monday, and hurricane warnings or watches are in effect for portions of that coastline. Interests in these areas should closely monitor the progress of Nora and subsequent updates to the forecast. 2. Heavy rain associated with Nora is expected across the west coast of Mexico from the states of Colima northward to southern Sonora. This rain will likely result in life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides across these regions. Rainfall from Nora is likely to spread into the southwestern U.S. and central Rockies during the middle to latter portion of the week, bringing the potential for flash flooding to the region. 3. Nora is forecast to move north-northwestward to northwestward near or over the Gulf of California Tuesday and Wednesday, bringing a risk of wind impacts to portions of the Mexican states of Baja California Sur, northern Sinaloa, and Sonora. Given the above-average uncertainty in the intensity forecast, confidence is not high enough to determine the magnitude and location of these potential impacts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/1500Z 23.3N 106.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 30/0000Z 23.8N 106.9W 60 KT 70 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 24H 30/1200Z 24.3N 107.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 36H 31/0000Z 24.9N 108.2W 55 KT 65 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 48H 31/1200Z 25.6N 109.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 60H 01/0000Z 26.5N 109.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 72H 01/1200Z 27.5N 110.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 96H 02/1200Z 29.5N 111.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 120H 03/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart
Tags: number
discussion
forecast
hurricane
Hurricane Nora Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16
2021-08-29 16:45:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN AUG 29 2021 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 291445 PWSEP4 HURRICANE NORA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142021 1500 UTC SUN AUG 29 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NORA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 3 2( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SAN JOSE CABO 34 3 2( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) LA PAZ 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) LORETO 34 1 X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) HERMOSILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) GUAYMAS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 7(10) 2(12) X(12) HUATABAMPO 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 8(13) 1(14) X(14) LOS MOCHIS 34 3 2( 5) 8(13) 6(19) 4(23) X(23) X(23) LOS MOCHIS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) CULIACAN 34 41 12(53) 3(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) CULIACAN 50 4 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ISLAS MARIAS 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MAZATLAN 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MAZATLAN 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MAZATLAN 64 27 X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) SAN BLAS 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER REINHART
Tags: number
speed
wind
hurricane
Summary for Hurricane Nora (EP4/EP142021)
2021-08-29 16:45:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...NORA NEAR MAZATLAN ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHERN SINALOA... ...HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO... As of 9:00 AM MDT Sun Aug 29 the center of Nora was located near 23.3, -106.4 with movement NNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 985 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
Tags: summary
hurricane
nora
ep4ep142021
Sites : [126] [127] [128] [129] [130] [131] [132] [133] [134] [135] [136] [137] [138] [139] [140] [141] [142] [143] [144] [145] next »