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Hurricane Nora Public Advisory Number 13
2021-08-28 22:53:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 282053 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Hurricane Nora Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021 400 PM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021 ...NORA'S CENTER GRAZING THE COAST OF JALISCO MEXICO... ...HURRICANE WARNINGS EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE NAYARIT AND SINALOA COASTS... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.7N 105.4W ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM SSW OF PUERTO VALLARTA MEXICO ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has upgraded the Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch north of San Blas to Altata, Mexico, to a Hurricane Warning. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Manzanillo to Altata Mexico A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * North of Altata to Topolobampo Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * South of Manzanillo to Lazaro Cardenas Mexico A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Cabo San Lucas to La Paz Mexico A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the coasts of Sinaloa, Sonora, and Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of Nora. Additional watches and warnings may be required for portions of these areas tonight or on Sunday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Nora was located near latitude 19.7 North, longitude 105.4 West. Nora is moving toward the north near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn toward the north-northwest is expected tonight and on Sunday, followed by a slower northwestward motion Sunday night through Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Nora will move near or over western Jalisco during the next few hours, and then move over the Gulf of California near or along the coasts of Nayarit and Sinaloa tonight through Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next few days if Nora's center remains over the waters of the Gulf of California. However, weakening would likely occur if the center moves inland. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km). A sustained wind of 77 mph (124 km/h) was recently reported at Chamela-Cuixmala, Jalisco. The estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb (28.85 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Nora can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4, WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Hurricane conditions are occurring within the southern portion of the hurricane warning area and are likely to spread northward within hurricane warning area through Monday. Hurricane conditions are also possible within the hurricane watch area late Monday. Tropical storm conditions will continue over the tropical storm warning area through tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area in Baja California Sur on Monday. RAINFALL: Nora is expected to produce rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches with maximum amounts of 20 inches this weekend into early next week along the west coast of Mexico from the Mexican states of Guerrero northward to southern Sonora, including Baja California Sur. This rainfall will produce life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Toward the middle and latter part of next week, moisture associated with Nora may bring heavy rainfall to portions of the southwestern U.S. and central Rockies. STORM SURGE: Storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Nora are affecting the southern and southwestern coast of Mexico and will spread northward to the coast of Baja California Sur and into the Gulf of California into early next week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Hurricane Nora Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13
2021-08-28 22:53:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT AUG 28 2021 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 282053 PWSEP4 HURRICANE NORA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142021 2100 UTC SAT AUG 28 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NORA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PUNTA EUGENIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 3(13) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 2 4( 6) 12(18) 10(28) 8(36) 2(38) X(38) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SAN JOSE CABO 34 2 5( 7) 15(22) 13(35) 8(43) 1(44) X(44) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SAN JOSE CABO 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) LA PAZ 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 4( 8) 15(23) 3(26) X(26) LA PAZ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LA PAZ 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) LORETO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 8(10) 13(23) 2(25) LORETO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) P PENASCO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) HERMOSILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 4(12) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) 8(22) BAHIA KINO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) BAHIA KINO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) 18(27) 5(32) GUAYMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 2(10) GUAYMAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 12(15) 11(26) 1(27) HUATABAMPO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) LOS MOCHIS 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 8(12) 19(31) 4(35) 1(36) LOS MOCHIS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) LOS MOCHIS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) CULIACAN 34 1 7( 8) 19(27) 14(41) 5(46) X(46) X(46) CULIACAN 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ISLAS MARIAS 34 94 2(96) X(96) X(96) 1(97) X(97) X(97) ISLAS MARIAS 50 57 8(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) ISLAS MARIAS 64 4 8(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) MAZATLAN 34 30 58(88) 3(91) 1(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) MAZATLAN 50 1 46(47) 8(55) X(55) 1(56) X(56) X(56) MAZATLAN 64 X 14(14) 4(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) SAN BLAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SAN BLAS 50 54 4(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) SAN BLAS 64 9 2(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) P VALLARTA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) P VALLARTA 50 94 X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) P VALLARTA 64 14 X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MANZANILLO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 20N 110W 34 2 3( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) X(10) 1(11) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Hurricane Nora Forecast Advisory Number 13
2021-08-28 22:52:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT AUG 28 2021 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 282052 TCMEP4 HURRICANE NORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142021 2100 UTC SAT AUG 28 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS UPGRADED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH NORTH OF SAN BLAS TO ALTATA...MEXICO...TO A HURRICANE WARNING. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MANZANILLO TO ALTATA MEXICO A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF ALTATA TO TOPOLOBAMPO MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH OF MANZANILLO TO LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CABO SAN LUCAS TO LA PAZ MEXICO A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COASTS OF SINALOA...SONORA...AND BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NORA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS TONIGHT OR ON SUNDAY. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 105.4W AT 28/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 977 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 70SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT.......120NE 140SE 90SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 270SE 210SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 105.4W AT 28/2100Z AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 105.3W FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 21.5N 105.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 60NE 80SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 22.9N 106.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 23.5N 107.4W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 24.2N 108.1W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 24.8N 108.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 25.6N 109.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 27.6N 110.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 29.4N 110.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.7N 105.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 29/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Hurricane Ida Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
2021-08-28 22:52:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Sat, 28 Aug 2021 20:52:11 GMT
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Hurricane Ida Graphics
2021-08-28 22:51:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 28 Aug 2021 20:51:48 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 28 Aug 2021 21:22:47 GMT
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