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Hurricane Hilda Public Advisory Number 14
2021-08-03 04:35:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Mon Aug 02 2021 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 030234 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Hurricane Hilda Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021 800 PM PDT Mon Aug 02 2021 ...HILDA STILL A HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.4N 123.3W ABOUT 980 MI...1575 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Hilda was located near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 123.3 West. Hilda is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue through Wednesday, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Hilda is forecast to gradually weaken during the next several days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Pasch
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Hurricane Hilda Forecast Advisory Number 14
2021-08-03 04:34:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE AUG 03 2021 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 030234 TCMEP3 HURRICANE HILDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082021 0300 UTC TUE AUG 03 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 123.3W AT 03/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 10NE 15SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 80SE 50SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 150SE 120SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 123.3W AT 03/0300Z AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 123.1W FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 17.1N 123.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 80SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 18.0N 124.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 18.9N 125.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 19.8N 127.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 20.8N 128.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 21.6N 130.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 22.5N 135.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 22.6N 139.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 123.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART/PASCH
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Hurricane Hilda Forecast Discussion Number 13
2021-08-02 22:36:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Mon Aug 02 2021 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 022035 TCDEP3 Hurricane Hilda Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021 200 PM PDT Mon Aug 02 2021 Recent satellite images show that Hilda's cloud pattern has become less organized, with the low-level center on the northeast edge of the central dense overcast. Microwave data also show a less distinct eye feature, along with a more broken eyewall. The initial wind speed is lowered to 65 kt, which is closest to the latest CIMSS-SATCON value. Hilda continues moving northwestward and should remain on that heading for the next day or two while it is steered by the subtropical ridge located near and west of Mexico. No changes were made to the forecast during that time. After that, the ridge builds farther to the west and a weakened Hilda should respond by taking west-northwestward and westward turns by late week. However, exactly when that happens is difficult to tell due to potential interaction at long range with the remnants of former TD 9-E. A fair number of the models are showing that system regenerating and getting closer to Hilda, which would have the tendency to steer Hilda farther northward. While the new forecast responds to this scenario by shifting the official track about half a degree poleward on day 3 and beyond, a lot of the latest guidance is even farther north. It seems like Hilda might finally be on a steadier weakening trend with the recent degradation noted in satellite data. With moderate northeasterly shear and decreasing water temperatures in the path of the cyclone, Hilda should continue to lose strength during the next few days. Somewhat surprisingly, guidance is a little higher than the last cycle, which doesn't feel like the correct forecast move at this time, especially as the forecast shifts northward over cooler waters faster. The new NHC forecast maintains the weakening trend from the last advisory, and now ends up lower than the bulk of the guidance. Remnant-low status is anticipated just after day 3. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/2100Z 15.9N 122.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 03/0600Z 16.5N 123.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 03/1800Z 17.4N 124.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 04/0600Z 18.3N 125.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 04/1800Z 19.2N 126.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 05/0600Z 20.1N 128.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 05/1800Z 21.1N 129.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 06/1800Z 22.0N 134.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 07/1800Z 22.0N 139.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Blake
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Hurricane Hilda Graphics
2021-08-02 22:34:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 02 Aug 2021 20:34:46 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 02 Aug 2021 21:22:41 GMT
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Hurricane Hilda Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13
2021-08-02 22:34:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 02 2021 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 022033 PWSEP3 HURRICANE HILDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082021 2100 UTC MON AUG 02 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HILDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 122.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 120W 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 125W 34 2 3( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 125W 34 1 3( 4) 13(17) 7(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 8(10) 1(11) X(11) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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