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Hurricane Hilda Public Advisory Number 8
2021-08-01 16:43:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Sun Aug 01 2021 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 011443 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Hurricane Hilda Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021 800 AM PDT Sun Aug 01 2021 ...HILDA IN NO HURRY AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.6N 120.2W ABOUT 885 MI...1420 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Hilda was located near latitude 14.6 North, longitude 120.2 West. Hilda is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A west-northwestward to northwestward motion at a slower forward speed is expected during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds remain near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast today, with gradual weakening expected to begin on Monday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Hurricane Hilda Forecast Advisory Number 8
2021-08-01 16:43:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN AUG 01 2021 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 011443 TCMEP3 HURRICANE HILDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082021 1500 UTC SUN AUG 01 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 120.2W AT 01/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 80SE 50SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 120SE 90SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 120.2W AT 01/1500Z AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 119.8W FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 14.9N 121.2W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 80SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 15.4N 122.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 80SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 16.1N 123.4W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 16.9N 124.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 18.0N 125.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 19.0N 127.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 20.2N 131.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 20.5N 135.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.6N 120.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Hurricane Hilda Graphics
2021-08-01 10:38:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 01 Aug 2021 08:38:09 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 01 Aug 2021 08:38:10 GMT
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Hurricane Hilda Forecast Discussion Number 7
2021-08-01 10:37:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Sun Aug 01 2021 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 010836 TCDEP3 Hurricane Hilda Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021 200 AM PDT Sun Aug 01 2021 Hilda's strengthening last evening was short lived. Infrared and water vapor imagery show high-level clouds from a weather disturbance to the east impinging on the eastern side of Hilda's circulation, suggestive of moderate easterly shear. In fact, 85-GHz SSMIS data from 0241 UTC shows that the microwave presentation has degraded significantly, with most of the deep convection displaced to the west of the low-level center. Hilda's initial intensity is being held at 75 kt based on Dvorak CI numbers of 4.5 from TAFB and SAB, although that estimate could be generous. Hilda continues to move west-northwestward, or 285/9 kt, to the south of a subtropical ridge which is expected to build westward over the Pacific during the next few days. Despite the placement of this ridge, the dynamical models indicate that Hilda is likely to have some degree of binary interaction with the disturbance to its east and thus take on a northwestward heading on days 2 and 3. After the interaction, the ridge should then cause Hilda to turn back toward the west-northwest and then west by days 4 and 5. While there are some model outliers, the spread among the guidance has actually decreased over the past 24 hours. The updated NHC track forecast is not too different from the previous forecast, except that it is a little slower to account for recent model trends. The moderate easterly shear affecting Hilda is unlikely to abate much during the next couple of days, especially as the distance between the hurricane and the disturbance to the east decreases. Still, Hilda will remain over relatively warm waters during that period, and the models suggest that the hurricane will either maintain its current intensity or strengthen slightly through 48 hours. Hilda is then expected to move over waters colder than 26 degrees Celsius, causing a steady weakening trend through the end of the forecast period. The new NHC intensity forecast is a little lower than the previous forecast to account for the current structure of the cyclone and the latest model solutions, although the forecast intensities are not as low as what is shown by the HCCA and IVCN consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0900Z 14.5N 119.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 01/1800Z 14.8N 120.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 02/0600Z 15.3N 122.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 02/1800Z 15.9N 123.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 03/0600Z 16.7N 124.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 03/1800Z 17.6N 125.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 04/0600Z 18.7N 126.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 05/0600Z 20.1N 130.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 06/0600Z 20.7N 135.3W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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Summary for Hurricane Hilda (EP3/EP082021)
2021-08-01 10:36:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...HILDA'S STRENGTHENING COMES TO A HALT... As of 2:00 AM PDT Sun Aug 1 the center of Hilda was located near 14.5, -119.6 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 985 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.
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