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Hurricane Hilda Forecast Discussion Number 11
2021-08-02 10:36:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Mon Aug 02 2021 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 020836 TCDEP3 Hurricane Hilda Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021 200 AM PDT Mon Aug 02 2021 SSMIS microwave data received just after the previous advisory indicate that Hilda's structure may have improved slightly, with a closed mid-level eye noted in the 85-GHz channel. However, the microwave data also showed that the low- and mid-level centers remain offset from each other by about 15 n mi due to continued moderate easterly shear. The initial intensity remains 70 kt, which is a blend of the latest final-T Dvorak numbers from TAFB and SAB. Hilda has begun to turn to the right and slow down, and the initial motion is west-northwestward (295 degrees) at 7 kt. Although the subtropical ridge remains positioned to the north of Hilda, the hurricane's close proximity to Tropical Depression Ten-E and the remnants of Tropical Depression Nine-E is expected to cause some binary interaction over the next couple of days, with Hilda likely to slow down further and turn toward the northwest later today and continue on that heading through Wednesday. In fact, the newest track guidance has trended to the northeast during the first 48 hours, and the updated NHC forecast has therefore been shifted a bit to the right during that period. However, it should be noted that the track adjustment is conservative, and does not show a turn quite as sharp as that shown by the TVCE and HCCA consensus aids. Low-level ridging should play a more prominent role in about 3 days, causing Hilda to turn back toward the west-northwest and then west by the end of the forecast period. No significant track changes were required during the day 3-5 time period. Moderate east-northeasterly shear is expected to continue for the next 36 hours or so, with Hilda also heading toward cooler waters during that time. Therefore, gradual weakening is expected to commence later today, and the NHC intensity forecast is close to the HCCA and ICON consensus aids for the next day or so. Sub-26 degree Celsius waters are likely to cause quicker weakening from 36 hours onward, and the NHC intensity forecast has been nudged downward during that period. This new forecast is lower than the statistical-dynamical models but not nearly as low as the latest HCCA solution. Hilda is now forecast to weaken to a tropical depression by day 3 and degenerate into a remnant low by day 4, although the HCCA scenario suggests that these transitions could occur as much as a day earlier. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0900Z 15.3N 122.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 02/1800Z 15.8N 122.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 03/0600Z 16.7N 123.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 03/1800Z 17.8N 124.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 04/0600Z 18.9N 125.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 04/1800Z 19.8N 127.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 05/0600Z 20.5N 128.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 06/0600Z 21.2N 132.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 07/0600Z 21.5N 136.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Berg
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Summary for Hurricane Hilda (EP3/EP082021)
2021-08-02 10:36:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...HILDA HEADED FOR A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST LATER TODAY... As of 2:00 AM PDT Mon Aug 2 the center of Hilda was located near 15.3, -122.1 with movement WNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 988 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.
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Hurricane Hilda Public Advisory Number 11
2021-08-02 10:36:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Mon Aug 02 2021 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 020836 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Hurricane Hilda Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021 200 AM PDT Mon Aug 02 2021 ...HILDA HEADED FOR A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.3N 122.1W ABOUT 955 MI...1535 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Hilda was located near latitude 15.3 North, longitude 122.1 West. Hilda is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A slower motion toward the northwest is expected to begin later this morning and continue through early Wednesday. A turn back to the west-northwest is forecast later on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is expected to begin later today, and Hilda is forecast to weaken to a tropical storm by early Tuesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Hurricane Hilda Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2021-08-02 10:36:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON AUG 02 2021 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 020836 PWSEP3 HURRICANE HILDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082021 0900 UTC MON AUG 02 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HILDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 122.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 120W 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 120W 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 125W 34 2 5( 7) 3(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) 20N 125W 34 1 2( 3) 7(10) 18(28) 3(31) X(31) X(31) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Hurricane Hilda Forecast Advisory Number 11
2021-08-02 10:35:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON AUG 02 2021 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 020835 TCMEP3 HURRICANE HILDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082021 0900 UTC MON AUG 02 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 122.1W AT 02/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 80SE 50SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 120SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 122.1W AT 02/0900Z AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 121.9W FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 15.8N 122.7W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 16.7N 123.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 17.8N 124.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 18.9N 125.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 19.8N 127.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 20.5N 128.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 21.2N 132.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 21.5N 136.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.3N 122.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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