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Hurricane Felicia Forecast Advisory Number 16

2021-07-18 04:36:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN JUL 18 2021 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 180236 TCMEP1 HURRICANE FELICIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062021 0300 UTC SUN JUL 18 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 126.1W AT 18/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 949 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 75SE 75SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 126.1W AT 18/0300Z AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 125.7W FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 15.6N 127.5W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 16.1N 129.5W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 16.3N 131.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 16.3N 133.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 16.1N 136.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 15.6N 138.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 14.6N 144.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 13.9N 149.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N 126.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

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Hurricane Felicia Forecast Discussion Number 15

2021-07-17 22:32:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1100 AM HST Sat Jul 17 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 172032 TCDEP1 Hurricane Felicia Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021 1100 AM HST Sat Jul 17 2021 Felicia has remained an impressive hurricane this morning. The hurricane's clear eye is still surrounded by a ring of very cold cloud tops and recent microwave overpasses show that the tiny cyclone continues to exhibit a very symmetric convective inner-core structure. The intensity estimate is still 125 kt, based on the latest TAFB Dvorak fix. Due to the small size of the hurricane and the lack of ground truth so far from land, it is worth mentioning that the uncertainty in that estimate is somewhat higher than usual. Virtually no change was made to the NHC track, intensity, or size forecasts, though the uncertainty in the intensity forecast remains high. All of the available intensity guidance continues to insist that at least gradual weakening will begin soon. Although that hasn't panned out yet, cooler SSTs ahead of Felicia could still contribute to at least a little weakening later today and Sunday. A faster rate of weakening is expected by around 48 h as the small cyclone moves over colder-yet waters and possibly encounters some moderate wind shear. There is poor agreement among the various global and regional models how soon the shear will affect Felicia. Once it does, the hurricane will likely decline rapidly due to the very small size of its inner core. By 72 h, every typically reliable intensity model shows Felicia below hurricane strength. The official intensity forecast remains on the very high side of the guidance, closest to the interpolated GFS forecast for the first 3 days, and is near the intensity consensus after that. Felicia has turned west-northwestward, with a forward speed of around 7 kt. In contrast to the intensity forecast, confidence in the track forecast is very high. A turn back toward the west is anticipated by late Sunday as a ridge to the north of Felicia builds slightly. Felicia should then turn west-southwestward early next week as it comes under the influence of an extensive deep-layer ridge centered over the central Pacific. The spread in the track guidance is low, and the NHC track forecast is very similar to the various consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/2100Z 14.9N 125.3W 125 KT 145 MPH 12H 18/0600Z 15.3N 126.6W 120 KT 140 MPH 24H 18/1800Z 15.8N 128.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 19/0600Z 16.1N 130.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 19/1800Z 16.1N 132.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 20/0600Z 16.0N 134.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 20/1800Z 15.6N 137.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 21/1800Z 14.7N 142.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 22/1800Z 14.0N 148.0W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

Tags: number discussion forecast hurricane

Hurricane Felicia Graphics

2021-07-17 22:32:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 17 Jul 2021 20:32:47 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 17 Jul 2021 20:32:47 GMT

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Hurricane Felicia Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15

2021-07-17 22:32:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT JUL 17 2021 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 172032 PWSEP1 HURRICANE FELICIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062021 2100 UTC SAT JUL 17 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FELICIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 125.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 125 KTS...145 MPH...230 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 125W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 15N 125W 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 15N 125W 64 21 X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) 15N 130W 34 1 21(22) 50(72) 3(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) 15N 130W 50 X 2( 2) 28(30) 2(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) 15N 130W 64 X X( X) 12(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) 20N 130W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 49(62) 1(63) X(63) 15N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 24(25) X(25) X(25) 15N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 28(38) X(38) 15N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) X(11) 15N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 9(14) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

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Summary for Hurricane Felicia (EP1/EP062021)

2021-07-17 22:31:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...CATEGORY FOUR FELICIA MAINTAINING STRENGTH AND NOW MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... As of 11:00 AM HST Sat Jul 17 the center of Felicia was located near 14.9, -125.3 with movement WNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 947 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 145 mph.

Tags: summary hurricane ep1ep062021 felicia

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