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Hurricane Felicia Graphics

2021-07-17 04:35:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 17 Jul 2021 02:35:09 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 17 Jul 2021 02:35:09 GMT

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Hurricane Felicia Forecast Discussion Number 12

2021-07-17 04:32:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 500 PM HST Fri Jul 16 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 170232 TCDEP1 Hurricane Felicia Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021 500 PM HST Fri Jul 16 2021 Felicia continues to exhibit characteristics of a classic major hurricane. The eye remains clear while the CDO is symmetrical with uniform cold cloud tops surrounding the center. The latest Dvorak T-numbers from TAFB and SAB support keeping the initial intensity at 115 kt for this advisory. Felicia is a small hurricane, and recent ASCAT overpasses showed that the tropical-storm-force winds extend only about 40-50 n mi from the center. Since earlier this afternoon, the hurricane has been moving south of due west, or 260/08 kt. A strong ridge to the north of the Felicia is expected to maintain it on a generally westward motion for the next several days. Late in the forecast period, the model guidance has trended toward a slightly faster forward motion. The latest NHC forecast track is close to the previous one through 72 h, but now lies in between the previous forecast and the track consensus guidance thereafter. Felicia is expected to move over gradually decreasing SSTs over the next few days which should induce a slow weakening trend beginning later tonight or on Saturday. Although the hurricane is surrounded by dry air, it is maintaining an annular structure while it is expected to remain in an environment of low vertical wind shear for at least a few more days. These factors may prevent this dry air from entraining into the cyclone's circulation for some time. Because of this, the latest NHC intensity prediction remains on the high end of the guidance for the entire forecast period, with the main factor contributing to weakening being the cooler SSTs. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0300Z 14.8N 123.2W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 17/1200Z 14.6N 124.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 18/0000Z 14.7N 126.1W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 18/1200Z 15.1N 128.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 19/0000Z 15.4N 129.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 19/1200Z 15.5N 131.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 20/0000Z 15.5N 134.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 21/0000Z 14.7N 138.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 22/0000Z 13.9N 143.2W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Latto

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Summary for Hurricane Felicia (EP1/EP062021)

2021-07-17 04:32:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...POWERFUL YET COMPACT FELICIA CONTINUES WESTWARD... As of 5:00 PM HST Fri Jul 16 the center of Felicia was located near 14.8, -123.2 with movement W at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 954 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 130 mph.

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Hurricane Felicia Forecast Advisory Number 12

2021-07-17 04:32:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT JUL 17 2021 873 WTPZ21 KNHC 170231 TCMEP1 HURRICANE FELICIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062021 0300 UTC SAT JUL 17 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 123.2W AT 17/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 954 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 123.2W AT 17/0300Z AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 122.8W FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 14.6N 124.5W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 14.7N 126.1W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 15.1N 128.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 15.4N 129.9W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 15.5N 131.9W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 15.5N 134.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 14.7N 138.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 13.9N 143.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 123.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO

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Hurricane Felicia Graphics

2021-07-16 22:32:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 16 Jul 2021 20:32:16 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 16 Jul 2021 20:32:16 GMT

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