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Hurricane Felicia Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14
2021-07-17 16:41:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT JUL 17 2021 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 171441 PWSEP1 HURRICANE FELICIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062021 1500 UTC SAT JUL 17 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FELICIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 124.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 125 KTS...145 MPH...230 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 125W 34 98 X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) 15N 125W 50 86 X(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) 15N 125W 64 30 X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) 15N 130W 34 X 6( 6) 69(75) 10(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) 15N 130W 50 X 1( 1) 34(35) 14(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) 15N 130W 64 X X( X) 15(15) 13(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 54(60) 2(62) X(62) 15N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) 1(26) X(26) 15N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 25(29) 1(30) 15N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) 15N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Hurricane Felicia Forecast Advisory Number 14
2021-07-17 16:40:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT JUL 17 2021 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 171440 TCMEP1 HURRICANE FELICIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062021 1500 UTC SAT JUL 17 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 124.6W AT 17/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 947 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 124.6W AT 17/1500Z AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 124.2W FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 14.8N 125.8W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 15.2N 127.6W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 15.7N 129.6W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 16.0N 131.6W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 16.0N 133.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 15.7N 136.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 15.0N 141.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 14.0N 147.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.6N 124.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Hurricane Felicia Update Statement
2021-07-17 15:48:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 330 AM HST Sat Jul 17 2021 823 WTPZ61 KNHC 171347 CCA TCUEP1 Hurricane Felicia Tropical Cyclone Update...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021 330 AM HST Sat Jul 17 2021 Corrected header ...FELICIA STRENGTHENS FURTHER... Recent satellite intensity estimates indicate that the maximum sustained winds of Felicia have increased to 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher gusts. This higher intensity will be reflected in the next advisory, issued by 500 AM HST (1500 UTC). SUMMARY OF 330 AM AST...1330 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.5N 124.3W ABOUT 1105 MI...1780 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...28.26 INCHES $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Summary for Hurricane Felicia (EP1/EP062021)
2021-07-17 15:48:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...FELICIA STRENGTHENS FURTHER... As of 3:30 AM HST Sat Jul 17 the center of Felicia was located near 14.5, -124.3 with movement W at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 947 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 145 mph.
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Hurricane Felicia Forecast Discussion Number 13
2021-07-17 11:00:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 PM HST Fri Jul 16 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 170859 TCDEP1 Hurricane Felicia Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021 1100 PM HST Fri Jul 16 2021 Felicia remains an impressively compact major hurricane on satellite imagery tonight. The storm possesses a circular, clear, and warm (10-15 C) eye surrounded by an equally symmetrical central dense overcast (CDO) with cloud top temperatures colder than -70 C. In addition, a 0535 UTC GMI microwave pass showed a singular closed eyewall, with only limited outer banding outside of the inner core. The 0600 UTC subjective Dvorak satellite estimates from TAFB and SAB were T6.0/115 kt and T5.5/102 kt respectively, while the UW-CIMSS ADT objective estimate was holding steady at T5.7/107 kt. Since that time, cloud top temperatures surrounding the eye have cooled a bit more during the diurnal max, so the initial intensity is held at 115 kt, in agreement with the higher TAFB estimate. The hurricane has maintained more of a west-southwest motion over the past 6-12 hours at 255/8 kt. This motion is expected to gradually bend back westward or west-northwestward over the weekend into early next week as a narrow mid-level ridge axis shifts back to the north-northeast of Felicia. In the latter part of the forecast period, a stronger deep-layer ridge north of Hawaii is expected to become the primary steering feature, leading to a Felicia turning back west-southwestward with gradual acceleration. The track guidance has shifted a tad further north early on, and has continued to speed up the forward motion near the end of the forecast period. The latest NHC track forecast has been adjusted a little more poleward in the first 60 hours, closer to the HCCA and TVCE consensus aids, and is faster after 72 hours. The forecast track still lies roughly between the previous forecast and the aforementioned track consensus aids. Felicia currently has the structural characteristics of an annular hurricane, featuring a warm eye and cold circular CDO with little additional banding beyond the eyewall. Even though sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) slowly decrease over the next 36 hours as Felicia remains embedded in a dry mid-level relative humidity environment, the modest easterly vertical wind shear (around 5-kt) forecast over the cyclone will likely prevent dry-air entrainment that could disrupt the stable eyewall structure. Thus, the intensity forecast for the first 36-48 hours remains above the majority of the guidance and it would not be surprising to see Felicia maintain its category 4 intensity longer than forecasted in the short-term. After 60 hours, the ECMWF-SHIPS guidance shows a sharp increase in northwesterly vertical winds shear as the hurricane tracks along the 26 C SST isotherm. These more unfavorable environmental conditions will likely lead to significant disruption of Felicia's tiny inner core. The weakening rate has been increased a bit more in the latter portion of the latest NHC intensity forecast, falling near the mean of the intensity guidance and HCCA consensus aid by the end of the forecast period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0900Z 14.5N 123.9W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 17/1800Z 14.6N 125.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 18/0600Z 14.9N 126.8W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 18/1800Z 15.3N 128.7W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 19/0600Z 15.7N 130.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 19/1800Z 15.8N 132.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 20/0600Z 15.6N 134.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 21/0600Z 14.7N 140.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 22/0600Z 13.8N 145.1W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Papin/Beven
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