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Hurricane Felicia Graphics
2021-07-19 10:40:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 19 Jul 2021 08:40:28 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 19 Jul 2021 08:40:28 GMT
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Hurricane Felicia Forecast Discussion Number 21
2021-07-19 10:39:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 PM HST Sun Jul 18 2021 956 WTPZ41 KNHC 190839 TCDEP1 Hurricane Felicia Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021 1100 PM HST Sun Jul 18 2021 Felicia continues to rapidly weaken tonight. The eye is no longer visible in satellite imagery, and the low-level center is embedded underneath a small central dense overcast. Recent SSMIS and GMI microwave imagery reveal the hurricane no longer has a well-defined eyewall, with a lack of deep convection noted in the southern portion of the compact circulation. A blend of the objective UW-CIMSS ADT and subjective Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB supports lowering the initial intensity to 85 kt with this advisory. Steady to rapid weakening is expected to continue over the next couple of days as Felicia moves over decreasing SSTs and into an environment with increasing vertical wind shear. The combination of this shear and entrainment of drier mid-level air into the inner core of Felicia should disrupt the small cyclone's ability to maintain its convective organization. The official NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and shows steady weakening that generally follows the IVCN consensus aid. GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite imagery indicate that Felicia could lose all deep, organized convection as early as Wednesday, when the northwesterly shear strengthens to 30-40 kt over the cyclone. Recent scatterometer and microwave data indicate Felicia has begun turning more westward, and its initial motion is estimated to be 280/10 kt. A westward to west-southwestward motion is forecast during the next several days as the cyclone moves around a subtropical ridge that extends across the central Pacific. The track guidance remains tightly clustered and the official NHC track forecast is largely unchanged, with only a slight southward adjustment that follows the latest multi-model consensus. Based on this forecast, Felicia is expected to cross over into the central Pacific basin on Tuesday night. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0900Z 16.4N 131.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 19/1800Z 16.3N 132.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 20/0600Z 16.2N 134.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 20/1800Z 15.8N 137.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 21/0600Z 15.3N 140.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 21/1800Z 14.9N 143.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 22/0600Z 14.4N 146.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 23/0600Z 14.0N 151.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 24/0600Z 13.5N 157.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Pasch
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Hurricane Felicia Wind Speed Probabilities Number 21
2021-07-19 10:39:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON JUL 19 2021 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 190839 PWSEP1 HURRICANE FELICIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062021 0900 UTC MON JUL 19 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FELICIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 131.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS...100 MPH...155 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 135W 34 1 17(18) 7(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) 15N 135W 50 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 30(33) 3(36) X(36) X(36) 15N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 15N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 1(15) X(15) 15N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) 15N 155W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER REINHART/PASCH
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Summary for Hurricane Felicia (EP1/EP062021)
2021-07-19 10:38:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...FELICIA CONTINUES RAPIDLY WEAKENING... As of 11:00 PM HST Sun Jul 18 the center of Felicia was located near 16.4, -131.0 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 979 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.
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Hurricane Felicia Public Advisory Number 21
2021-07-19 10:38:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 PM HST Sun Jul 18 2021 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 190838 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Felicia Advisory Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021 1100 PM HST Sun Jul 18 2021 ...FELICIA CONTINUES RAPIDLY WEAKENING... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.4N 131.0W ABOUT 1440 MI...2320 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Felicia was located near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 131.0 West. Felicia is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A general westward to west-southwestward motion is expected during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected during the next several days. Felicia is a very small hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb (28.91 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST. $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Pasch
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