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Hurricane Felicia Graphics

2021-07-15 10:53:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 15 Jul 2021 08:53:07 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 15 Jul 2021 09:22:43 GMT

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Hurricane Felicia Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5

2021-07-15 10:52:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC THU JUL 15 2021 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 150852 PWSEP1 HURRICANE FELICIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062021 0900 UTC THU JUL 15 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FELICIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 120W 34 36 62(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) 15N 120W 50 4 80(84) 1(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) 15N 120W 64 X 53(53) 3(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) 10N 125W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 15N 125W 34 X 2( 2) 7( 9) 42(51) 32(83) 1(84) X(84) 15N 125W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 35(47) 1(48) X(48) 15N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 23(27) X(27) X(27) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 10N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 50(62) 4(66) 15N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 26(27) 4(31) 15N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 2(15) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 10N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 36(42) 15N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 15N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN/BEVEN

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Summary for Hurricane Felicia (EP1/EP062021)

2021-07-15 10:51:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...FELICIA RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A HURRICANE... ...FURTHER INTENSIFICATION EXPECTED... As of 2:00 AM PDT Thu Jul 15 the center of Felicia was located near 15.2, -117.6 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 986 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.

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Hurricane Felicia Public Advisory Number 5

2021-07-15 10:51:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 AM PDT Thu Jul 15 2021 447 WTPZ31 KNHC 150851 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Felicia Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021 200 AM PDT Thu Jul 15 2021 ...FELICIA RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A HURRICANE... ...FURTHER INTENSIFICATION EXPECTED... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.2N 117.6W ABOUT 730 MI...1175 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Felicia was located near latitude 15.2 North, longitude 117.6 West. Felicia is now moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A gradual turn to the west-southwest is expected by Friday with this motion expected to continue over the next 48 hours. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Felicia has rapidly intensified into a category 1 hurricane over the past 24 hours and further intensification is expected over the next day or so. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Papin/Beven

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Hurricane Felicia Forecast Advisory Number 5

2021-07-15 10:50:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC THU JUL 15 2021 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 150850 TCMEP1 HURRICANE FELICIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062021 0900 UTC THU JUL 15 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 117.6W AT 15/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 50SE 30SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 45SE 30SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 117.6W AT 15/0900Z AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 117.1W FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 15.3N 118.9W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 15.2N 120.6W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 14.9N 122.1W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 14.6N 123.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 14.4N 125.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 14.3N 127.1W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 14.4N 131.1W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 14.5N 135.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N 117.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN/BEVEN

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