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Hurricane Elsa Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12
2021-07-03 10:37:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT JUL 03 2021 000 FONT15 KNHC 030837 PWSAT5 HURRICANE ELSA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021 0900 UTC SAT JUL 03 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ELSA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS ...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) FLORENCE SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) COLUMBIA SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) LITTLE RIVER 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) LITTLE RIVER 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) GEORGETOWN SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) CHARLESTON SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 18(21) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) BEAUFORT MCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 16(19) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 17(25) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) KINGS BAY GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 14(20) WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 16(24) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 14(20) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 15(25) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 10(18) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 9(22) THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 8(18) ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 9(14) 4(18) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 9(14) 4(18) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 8(16) 3(19) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 6(19) 1(20) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 12(17) 5(22) 1(23) FT LAUDERDALE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 3(16) 1(17) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) 3(18) 1(19) HOMESTEAD ARB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 31(43) 5(48) 1(49) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 2(13) X(13) MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) 33(43) 7(50) X(50) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 2(15) X(15) KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 23(26) 12(38) 1(39) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) NAPLES FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 9(19) 2(21) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 20(35) 3(38) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 1(10) VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 21(29) 5(34) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20(23) 8(31) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 9(17) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 9(18) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 4(19) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) 4(22) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 4(13) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 4(13) X(13) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 4(13) 1(14) X(14) ANDROS 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 11(17) 3(20) X(20) X(20) GREAT EXUMA 34 X 3( 3) 5( 8) 4(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) SAN SALVADOR 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MAYAGUANA 34 1 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GRAND TURK 34 3 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) HAVANA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 18(27) 3(30) 1(31) HAVANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) HAVANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 6(12) 1(13) X(13) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 31(34) 8(42) X(42) X(42) CIENFUEGOS 50 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 4(12) X(12) X(12) CIENFUEGOS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAMAGUEY 34 X 1( 1) 41(42) 17(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) CAMAGUEY 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 11(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) CAMAGUEY 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 1 53(54) 9(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) GUANTANAMO BAY 50 X 8( 8) 4(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) GUANTANAMO BAY 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MONTEGO BAY 34 X 4( 4) 9(13) 2(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) KINGSTON 34 1 7( 8) 6(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) LES CAYES 34 10 83(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) LES CAYES 50 1 44(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) LES CAYES 64 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 75 12(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 10 18(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) PORT-AU-PRINCE 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) CAPE BEATA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CAPE BEATA 50 80 1(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) CAPE BEATA 64 13 X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) PUERTO PLATA 34 7 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) SANTO DOMINGO 34 6 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Hurricane Elsa Forecast Advisory Number 12
2021-07-03 10:37:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT JUL 03 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 030837 TCMAT5 HURRICANE ELSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021 0900 UTC SAT JUL 03 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTHERN COAST OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM PUNTA PALENQUE TO THE BORDER WITH HAITI * SOUTHERN PORTION OF HAITI FROM PORT AU PRINCE TO THE SOUTHERN BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC * JAMAICA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF HAITI NORTH OF PORT AU PRINCE * SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC EAST OF PUNTA PALENQUE TO CABO ENGANO A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...GRANMA...GUANTANAMO...HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS...AND SANTIAGO DE CUBA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO BAHIA DE MANZANILLO * CAYMAN BRAC AND LITTLE CAYMAN A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...CUBA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ELSA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 69.0W AT 03/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 27 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT.......110NE 100SE 30SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE 60SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 69.0W AT 03/0900Z AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 67.9W FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 17.5N 72.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 30SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 19.0N 75.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 30SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 20.5N 77.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 30SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 22.1N 79.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...110NE 70SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 23.4N 81.2W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 24.7N 82.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 30SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 28.2N 83.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 33.7N 80.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 69.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 03/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Summary for Hurricane Elsa (AT5/AL052021)
2021-07-03 07:49:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ELSA MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... ...HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER TODAY IN PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA... As of 2:00 AM AST Sat Jul 3 the center of Elsa was located near 15.5, -67.8 with movement WNW at 29 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.
Hurricane Elsa Public Advisory Number 11A
2021-07-03 07:49:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 AM AST Sat Jul 03 2021 000 WTNT35 KNHC 030549 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Elsa Intermediate Advisory Number 11A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 200 AM AST Sat Jul 03 2021 ...ELSA MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... ...HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER TODAY IN PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA... SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.5N 67.8W ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM ESE OF ISLA BEATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ABOUT 620 MI...1000 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 29 MPH...46 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Southern coast of Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque to the border with Haiti * Southern portion of Haiti from Port Au Prince to the southern border with the Dominican Republic * Jamaica A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The coast of Haiti north of Port Au Prince * South coast of the Dominican Republic east of Punta Palenque to Cabo Engano A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin, Las Tunas, and Santiago de Cuba A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to Bahia de Manzanillo * Cayman Brac and Little Cayman A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Cuba, the Cayman Islands, the Florida peninsula, and the Florida Keys should monitor the progress of Elsa. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Elsa was located near latitude 15.5 North, longitude 67.8 West. Elsa is moving toward the west-northwest near 29 mph (46 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today. A decrease in forward speed is expected tonight and Sunday, followed by a turn toward the northwest Sunday night or Monday. On the forecast track, Elsa will move near the southern coast of Hispaniola late today or tonight, and move near Jamaica and portions of eastern Cuba on Sunday. By Monday, Elsa is expected to move across central and western Cuba and head toward the Florida Straits. Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Some restrengthening is possible today, but slow weakening is expected to begin tonight or Sunday as Elsa interacts with the landmasses of Hispaniola, Jamaica, and Cuba. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area in Haiti and the Dominican Republic by late today. Hurricane conditions are expected on Jamaica tonight or Sunday, and are possible in eastern Cuba on Sunday. STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels above normal tide levels by as much as the following amounts in areas of onshore flow within the hurricane watch and warning areas... Southern coast of Cuba...4 to 6 feet Southern coast of Hispaniola...2 to 4 feet Jamaica...1 to 3 feet RAINFALL: The outer rain bands associated with Elsa will begin to impact Puerto Rico in a few hours with rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches with localized amounts of 5 inches possible today. This rain may lead to isolated flash flooding and minor river flooding, along with the potential for mudslides. Across portions of southern Hispaniola and Jamaica, rainfall of 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is possible today and Sunday. This rain may lead to scattered flash flooding and mudslides. By early next week, Elsa is expected to impact portions of the Cayman Islands and Cuba producing 5 to 10 inches of rain, with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches. This rainfall may result in significant flash flooding and mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by Elsa will spread westward across the Caribbean Sea through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Berg
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Hurricane Elsa Graphics
2021-07-03 07:49:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 03 Jul 2021 05:49:18 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 03 Jul 2021 03:22:42 GMT
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