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Hurricane Elsa Graphics
2021-07-03 05:00:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 03 Jul 2021 03:00:34 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 03 Jul 2021 03:00:35 GMT
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Hurricane Elsa Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2021-07-03 04:59:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT JUL 03 2021 000 FONT15 KNHC 030259 PWSAT5 HURRICANE ELSA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021 0300 UTC SAT JUL 03 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ELSA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS ...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 15(21) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 14(17) WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 15(21) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 14(18) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 13(20) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 11(17) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 12(21) THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 9(18) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 5(17) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 5(17) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 8(14) 3(17) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 7(18) 2(20) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 7(22) 1(23) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 4(16) 2(18) MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 4(18) 1(19) HOMESTEAD ARB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 35(38) 8(46) 1(47) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 3(14) X(14) MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 35(38) 11(49) X(49) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 4(16) X(16) KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 17(35) 2(37) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) NAPLES FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 12(19) 3(22) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 20(29) 4(33) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 19(23) 7(30) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) 9(26) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 10(15) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 6(16) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 5(18) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 3(11) 1(12) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) 1(13) X(13) ANDROS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 9(18) 1(19) X(19) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) 3(14) X(14) X(14) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MAYAGUANA 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GRAND TURK 34 X 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 30(34) 6(40) X(40) HAVANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 2(13) X(13) HAVANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 18(22) 1(23) X(23) ISLE OF PINES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) ISLE OF PINES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 39(50) 1(51) X(51) CIENFUEGOS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) X(19) X(19) CIENFUEGOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 39(46) 8(54) X(54) X(54) CAMAGUEY 50 X X( X) X( X) 11(11) 4(15) X(15) X(15) CAMAGUEY 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X 5( 5) 44(49) 2(51) 1(52) X(52) X(52) GUANTANAMO BAY 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GUANTANAMO BAY 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 7(13) X(13) X(13) MONTEGO BAY 34 X 2( 2) 22(24) 15(39) 1(40) X(40) X(40) MONTEGO BAY 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) MONTEGO BAY 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) KINGSTON 34 X 5( 5) 33(38) 5(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) KINGSTON 50 X X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) KINGSTON 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LES CAYES 34 1 77(78) 13(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) LES CAYES 50 X 23(23) 28(51) 1(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) LES CAYES 64 X 4( 4) 8(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 3 69(72) 1(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 X 15(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) PORT-AU-PRINCE 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) CAPE BEATA 34 17 77(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) CAPE BEATA 50 1 49(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) CAPE BEATA 64 X 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) PUERTO PLATA 34 3 9(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) SANTO DOMINGO 34 6 5(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) PONCE PR 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) AGUADILLA PR 34 5 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) VIEQUES PR 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAINT THOMAS 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAINT CROIX 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER STEWART/PAPIN
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Hurricane Elsa Public Advisory Number 11
2021-07-03 04:59:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Jul 02 2021 000 WTNT35 KNHC 030259 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Elsa Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 1100 PM AST Fri Jul 02 2021 ...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS ELSA A LITTLE WEAKER... ...HURRICANE EXPECTED TO RESTRENGTHEN BY LATE SATURDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.8N 66.3W ABOUT 395 MI...635 KM ESE OF ISLA BEATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ABOUT 730 MI...1175 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 29 MPH...46 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of the Netherlands has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch for Saba and Sint Eustatius. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Southern coast of Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque to the border with Haiti * Southern portion of Haiti from Port Au Prince to the southern border with the Dominican Republic * Jamaica A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The coast of Haiti north of Port Au Prince * South coast of the Dominican Republic east of Punta Palenque to Cabo Engano A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin, Las Tunas, and Santiago de Cuba A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to Bahia de Manzanillo * Cayman Brac and Little Cayman A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, Cuba, and the Cayman Islands should monitor the progress of Elsa. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required on Saturday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Elsa was located near latitude 14.8 North, longitude 66.3 West. Elsa is moving toward the west-northwest near 29 mph (46 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Saturday. A decrease in forward speed is expected Saturday night and Sunday, followed by a turn toward the northwest Sunday night or Monday. On the forecast track, Elsa will move across the eastern Caribbean Sea tonight across the central Caribbean Sea on Saturday, and move near the southern coast of Hispaniola late Saturday or Saturday night. By Sunday, Elsa is forecast to move near Jamaica and portions of eastern Cuba, and move near portions of central and western Cuba Sunday night and Monday. Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast tonight, with some restrengthening expected on Saturday. Slow weakening is expected to begin Saturday night or Sunday as Elsa interacts with Hispaniola, Jamaica, and Cuba. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). The estimated minimum central pressure based on dropsonde data from the aircraft is 995 mb (29.39 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area in Haiti and the Dominican Republic by late Saturday. Hurricane conditions are expected on Jamaica late Saturday or Sunday, and are possible in eastern Cuba on Sunday. STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels above normal tide levels by as much as the following amounts in areas of onshore flow within the hurricane watch and warning areas... Southern coast of Cuba...4 to 6 feet Southern coast of Hispaniola...2 to 4 feet Jamaica...1 to 3 feet RAINFALL: The outer rain bands associated with Elsa will begin to impact Puerto Rico tonight with rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches with localized amounts of 5 inches possible through Saturday. This rain may lead to isolated flash flooding and minor river flooding, along with the potential for mudslides. Across portions of southern Hispaniola and Jamaica, rainfall of 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is possible Saturday into Sunday. This rain may lead to scattered flash flooding and mudslides. By early next week, Elsa is expected to impact portions of the Cayman Islands and Cuba producing 5 to 10 inches of rain, with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches. This rainfall may result in significant flash flooding and mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by Elsa will spread westward across the Caribbean Sea through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart/Papin
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Hurricane Elsa Forecast Advisory Number 11
2021-07-03 04:58:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT JUL 03 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 030258 TCMAT5 HURRICANE ELSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021 0300 UTC SAT JUL 03 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR SABA AND SINT EUSTATIUS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTHERN COAST OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM PUNTA PALENQUE TO THE BORDER WITH HAITI * SOUTHERN PORTION OF HAITI FROM PORT AU PRINCE TO THE SOUTHERN BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC * JAMAICA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF HAITI NORTH OF PORT AU PRINCE * SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC EAST OF PUNTA PALENQUE TO CABO ENGANO A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...GRANMA...GUANTANAMO...HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS...AND SANTIAGO DE CUBA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO BAHIA DE MANZANILLO * CAYMAN BRAC AND LITTLE CAYMAN A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...CUBA...AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ELSA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED ON SATURDAY. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 66.3W AT 03/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 25 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT.......130NE 120SE 30SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE 30SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 66.3W AT 03/0300Z AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 65.1W FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 16.1N 69.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 30SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 17.6N 73.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 30SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 19.0N 76.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 30SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 20.5N 78.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 30SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 22.1N 80.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT...130NE 100SE 30SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 23.7N 81.7W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 30SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 27.7N 82.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 32.4N 80.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 66.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 03/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART/PAPIN
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Hurricane Elsa Forecast Discussion Number 11
2021-07-03 04:57:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Jul 02 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 030257 TCDAT5 Hurricane Elsa Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 1100 PM AST Fri Jul 02 2021 Data from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that Elsa has weakened slightly, and that the flight-level and surface centers are not vertically aligned. The maximum 700-mb wind speed measured was 75 kt and the highest SFMR surface wind sampled was 61 kt in the northeastern quadrant. However, these data were collected outside of the strongest convection that was occurring just east of the flight track, so the intensity has only been lowered to 70 kt, which is supported by the slightly higher central pressure of 995 mb sampled by a dropsonde. The initial motion estimate now is 285/25 kt. There remains little significant change to the previous track forecast or reasoning. The latest 00Z model guidance has become more convergent and now lies nearly on top of the previous advisory track. Over the last 48 h, the ECMWF model has steadily shifted Elsa's track westward by about 1 degree of longitude each model cycle, with the latest ECMWF forecast track now being located about 240 nmi west of its forecast track two days ago. As a result, less weight has been placed on the ECMWF solution for this advisory. However, even its latest solution no longer takes Elsa over the heart of Hispaniola. Elsa should continue to move generally west-northwestward for the next 48 h, accompanied by a slow but steady decrease in forward speed. By the time the hurricane nears southern Cuba, the forward speed should be less than 15 kt. Thereafter, Elsa should gradually turn northwestward and eventually northward through a developing weakness in the subtropical ridge This motion should take Elsa across Cuba and over the eastern Gulf of Mexico or the nearby Florida Peninsula on day 4, followed by a motion over the coastal regions of the southeastern United States on day 5. The new NHC forecast track is essentially just an update of the previous advisory, and closely follows a blend of the GFS, UKMET, and HWRF models, and the TVCA simple consensus model. Elsa's fast forward speed and recent entrainment of dry mid-level air into the western semicircle has eroded some of the inner-core convection, resulting in the aforementioned weakening. In fact, NOAA G-IV dropsondes launched around 2100 UTC northwest of Elsa indicated a significant dry-air layer between 400-500-hPa that may have been imported by moderate northwesterly mid-level shear. However, as the cyclone's forward speed steadily decreases, the low-, mid-, and upper-level circulations should become more vertically aligned, which should allow for at least some slight re-strengthening during the next 24 h or so. Possible interaction with the landmasses of Haiti, southeastern Cuba, and Jamaica is the primary reason for not showing a more robust intensity forecast given the very warm water beneath the hurricane and a very favorable upper-level wind flow regime. The latest GFS and UKMET models indicate that Elsa will be moving into the center of a 300-200-mb synoptic-scale anticyclone, which would produce enhanced outflow jets to the north and south of the cyclone, resulting in significant strengthening. If Elsa ends up 'threading-the-needle' between Haiti, Jamaica, and Cuba, then subsequent intensity forecasts may have to be increased similar to the much stronger HWRF model. For now, the official NHC intensity forecast maintains continuity with the previous advisory, and shows only slight re-strengthening due to possible interaction with land. It should be noted that the average NHC track errors are 175 miles and 200 miles at days 4 and 5, respectively. Given the larger-than-normal uncertainty and because hazards will extend well away from the center of the storm, users are urged to not focus on the exact forecast points. Key Messages: 1. Hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge are expected within the Hurricane Warning areas in Haiti and the Dominican Republic beginning Saturday and in Jamaica beginning Sunday. 2. The outer rain bands from Elsa will impact Puerto Rico by late tonight, with widespread heavy rain moving into southern Hispaniola and Jamaica Saturday into Sunday. Isolated to scattered flash flooding and mudslides are possible. Through early next week, heavy rain is expected to impact the Cayman Islands and Cuba resulting in significant flooding with mudslides possible in Cuba. 3. Hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge are possible in portions of eastern Cuba beginning early Sunday where a Hurricane Watch is in effect. There is an increasing risk of wind, storm surge, and rainfall impacts elsewhere in Cuba Sunday and Monday. 4. There is an increasing risk of storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts beginning Monday in the Florida Keys and spreading northward along the Florida Peninsula through Tuesday. However, the forecast uncertainty remains larger than usual due to Elsa's potential interaction with the islands of Hispaniola and Cuba this weekend. Interests throughout Florida should monitor Elsa's progress and updates to the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0300Z 14.8N 66.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 03/1200Z 16.1N 69.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 04/0000Z 17.6N 73.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 04/1200Z 19.0N 76.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 05/0000Z 20.5N 78.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 05/1200Z 22.1N 80.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 72H 06/0000Z 23.7N 81.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 07/0000Z 27.7N 82.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 08/0000Z 32.4N 80.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Stewart/Papin
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