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Hurricane Enrique Forecast Advisory Number 14

2021-06-28 17:32:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC MON JUN 28 2021 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 281532 CCA TCMEP5 HURRICANE ENRIQUE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052021 1500 UTC MON JUN 28 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM CABO SAN LUCAS NORTHWARD TO LOS BARRILES. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PLAYA PERULA TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MANZANILLO TO PLAYA PERULA MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA SAN TELMO TO PLAYA PERULA * CABO CORRIENTES TO PUNTA MITA MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA MITA TO SAN BLAS MEXICO * CABO SAN LUCAS TO LOS BARRILES A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 106.7W AT 28/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 977 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 80SE 70SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 180SE 90SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 106.7W AT 28/1500Z AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 106.6W FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 20.9N 107.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 80SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 21.4N 107.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 22.2N 108.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 23.0N 109.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 23.8N 110.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 24.5N 110.8W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 25.3N 112.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.4N 106.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 28/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN/STEWART

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Hurricane Enrique Graphics

2021-06-28 16:51:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 28 Jun 2021 14:51:08 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 28 Jun 2021 15:28:27 GMT

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Hurricane Enrique Forecast Discussion Number 14

2021-06-28 16:50:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 900 AM MDT Mon Jun 28 2021 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 281450 TCDEP5 Hurricane Enrique Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021 900 AM MDT Mon Jun 28 2021 The convective structure of Enrique has eroded some this morning as the hurricane appears to be feeling the effects of dry air entrainment, both from downsloping to the northeast off the higher terrain of Mexico and from stable air being entrained from the northwest. This degradation in the northern portion of Enrique's inner-core structure is also seen in an 0919 UTC AMSR2 microwave pass. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates were T4.5/77 kt from both TAFB and SAB, and the intensity for this advisory was lowered to 75 kt in accordance with these estimates. Enrique's motion appears to be gradually turning more toward the left at 335/4 kt. Over the next few days, a weak low- to mid-level ridge is expected to keep the storm on a similar northwest heading. The latest track guidance is in relatively good agreement, though there have been notable leftward shifts in the HWRF and HMON models. The latest NHC forecast is a slightly farther left compared to the previous one, close to both the TVCE and HCCA consensus aids. Now that Enrique's inner core structure has become increasingly ragged, weakening is expected to continue via dry-air entrainment as the storm tracks along gradually decreasing oceanic heat content. The latest NHC intensity forecast is a bit faster in its weakening rate over the next 24-36 hours, but Enrique is still forecast to be a tropical storm as it approaches the Baja California peninsula. However, some uncertainty remains in the forecast intensity because Enrique is forecast to track along a sharp sea-surface temperature gradient, where a left shift in the track would likely result in faster weakening rate while a right shift in the track may allow Enrique to maintain its intensity longer. Given the latest forecast, the government of Mexico has issued a tropical storm watch from Cabo San Lucas to Los Barriles along southern part of the Baja California Peninsula. Key Messages: 1. The outer rainbands of Enrique are likely to produce heavy rains across a portion of western Mexico during the next couple of days, which could likely cause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. 2. The core of Enrique is still near but just offshore the southwestern coast of Mexico this morning and a Hurricane Warning is in effect for a portion of that area. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected to continue across the remainder of southwestern Mexico within the warning areas through today. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area today. 3. Swells generated by Enrique are expected to affect the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/1500Z 20.4N 106.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 29/0000Z 20.9N 107.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 29/1200Z 21.4N 107.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 30/0000Z 22.2N 108.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 30/1200Z 23.0N 109.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 01/0000Z 23.8N 110.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 01/1200Z 24.5N 110.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 02/1200Z 25.3N 112.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 120H 03/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin/Stewart

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Hurricane Enrique Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14

2021-06-28 16:48:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC MON JUN 28 2021 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 281448 PWSEP5 HURRICANE ENRIQUE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052021 1500 UTC MON JUN 28 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ENRIQUE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 3 5( 8) 9(17) 8(25) 3(28) X(28) X(28) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAN JOSE CABO 34 3 5( 8) 9(17) 10(27) 4(31) X(31) X(31) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) LA PAZ 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) 3( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) X( 9) CULIACAN 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLAS MARIAS 34 76 4(80) 1(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) ISLAS MARIAS 50 8 4(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) ISLAS MARIAS 64 1 X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MAZATLAN 34 4 6(10) 3(13) X(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) SAN BLAS 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) P VALLARTA 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MANZANILLO 34 3 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 110W 34 3 4( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ISLA SOCORRO 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN/STEWART

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Summary for Hurricane Enrique (EP5/EP052021)

2021-06-28 16:48:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS WILL CONTINUE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... As of 9:00 AM MDT Mon Jun 28 the center of Enrique was located near 20.4, -106.7 with movement NNW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 977 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.

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